Polymarket Bettors Are Giving Up on the Dream of a U.S. Bitcoin Reserve

There has been much talk in the cryptocurrency space regarding the potential creation of a national Bitcoin strategic reserve in the United States with Donald Trump as the new president, but on market prediction platform Polymarket, the odds have dipped significantly.

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There has been much talk in the cryptocurrency space regarding the potential creation of a national Bitcoin strategic reserve in the United States with Donald Trump as the new president, but on market prediction platform Polymarket, the odds have dipped significantly.

Crypto users on Polymarket have been very busy since before the U.S. elections as hopes soared for a pro-crypto government to be elected, but it turns out there's not much confidence in a BTC strategic reserve to be established within Trump's first 100 days in office.

From 60% to Below 30%

As of late Sunday, odds the incoming president will create a Bitcoin reserve have dropped to 28%, marking a massive drop from Nov. 7, when chances for such a reserve were at around 60%.

Since then, the numbers have been sliding, even when positive odds picked up once more on Nov. 21, hitting 45%. In the last few weeks, though, it's been more difficult to hit 40%, and by January, the chances dropped as low as 22%, indicating weaker confidence among crypto bettors.

Why are Polymarket Bettors Not So Hopeful Anymore?

There are mixed reactions to the significant drop in chances for a U.S. Bitcoin reserve. Some are saying it's a moonshot to get such a thing approved, while others believe Trump has other priorities.

For one user, it's not necessarily difficult to pull it off, but if crypto users were honest, it may require up to "a year of diligence" to determine a BTC reserve's effects on the broader U.S. economy.

Another user pointed out that it's just not possible for a Bitcoin reserve to be established within the first 100 days of a sitting president, given how the government works.

The said user argued that even if Trump makes use of an executive order, it will take the U.S. Treasury, or whichever agency is delegated to oversee the reserve, to implement the steps to establishing the reserve. "100 days is far too fast," he reiterated.

Others are just too optimistic to think of the "No" bettors concerns, with many saying Trump's "many Bitcoiners" in his cabinet know how important it is to have a BTC reserve as soon as possible with the bull run incoming.

Earlier Pessimism over $BTC Reserve

This isn't the first time negativity around the possibility of a Bitcoin reserve hit the crypto community hard.

In mid-December, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell single-handedly sent Bitcoin prices to a plunge after he said the central bank is "not allowed to own Bitcoin."

His comments were technically correct, since Trump hasn't necessarily said the Federal Reserve will be in charge should the country hold BTC in reserve.

Some industry experts and enthusiasts have also pushed back against a U.S. Bitcoin reserve, arguing that the government should not get involved with BTC and it should retain its status as "the people's money."

Trump and some of his allies, including GOP Sen. Cynthia Lummis of Wyoming, have indicated that they are pushing to deliver on the promise of making the U.S. a global leader in Bitcoin and crypto.