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基于区块链的博彩网站 Polymarket 在过去几个月中用户活动和交易量迅速增加。事实上,根据 Dune Analytics 的数据,Polymarket 的历史交易量现已超过 20 亿美元
Blockchain-based betting platform Polymarket has seen a rapid surge in user activity and transactions over the last few months.
过去几个月,基于区块链的博彩平台 Polymarket 的用户活动和交易量迅速激增。
According to Dune Analytics, all-time trading volumes on Polymarket have now crossed the $2 billion mark, with this growth being largely driven by speculation around the winner of the U.S Presidential election.
根据 Dune Analytics 的数据,Polymarket 的历史交易量现已突破 20 亿美元大关,这一增长主要是由围绕美国总统选举获胜者的猜测推动的。
In September alone, volumes on the Polygon-based betting platform hit $486 million. This number could climb significantly this month, given that month-to-date volumes have already surpassed $161 million.
仅 9 月份,Polygon 博彩平台的交易额就达到 4.86 亿美元。鉴于本月迄今为止的交易量已超过 1.61 亿美元,这个数字可能会在本月大幅攀升。
(Source: Dune Analytics)
(来源:沙丘分析)
Data from Artemis also showed that on 3 October, the number of new daily active wallets on Polymarket hit a two-week high. This suggested that more users are continuing to join the platform.
Artemis的数据还显示,10月3日,Polymarket的日活跃钱包新增数量创两周新高。这表明更多用户正在继续加入该平台。
On that day, the daily transactions on the platform soared to a record high of 93,000.
当日,该平台日交易量飙升至9.3万笔的历史新高。
(Source: Dune Analytics)
(来源:沙丘分析)
Now, what’s driving the growth of this blockchain-based betting site?
现在,是什么推动了这个基于区块链的博彩网站的增长?
U.S election betting
美国大选投注
The U.S Presidential race has sparked a lot of interest in Polymarket. The “Presidential Election Winner 2024” bet on Polymarket has more than $1.19 billion in volumes.
美国总统竞选引发了人们对 Polymarket 的浓厚兴趣。 Polymarket 上“2024 年总统选举获胜者”的赌注金额超过 11.9 亿美元。
At press time, former U.S President Donald Trump had taken a narrow lead of 49.9% while Kamalaもと Harris trailed closely with 49.1% of bets in her favor.
截至发稿时,美国前总统唐纳德·特朗普以 49.9% 的微弱优势领先,而卡马拉·哈里斯以 49.1% 的支持率紧随其后。
(Source: Polymarket)
(来源:Polymarket)
This wager will close on 4 November, a day before the U.S presidential elections. Now, while election betting drove interest in Polymarket, the platform has quickly garnered interest in other prediction markets.
该赌注将于 11 月 4 日结束,即美国总统选举前一天。现在,虽然选举投注引发了人们对 Polymarket 的兴趣,但该平台也迅速引起了其他预测市场的兴趣。
Satoshi bet gains traction
中本聪的赌注获得关注
Recently, Polymarket saw a hike in interest following speculation around the identity of Bitcoin (BTC) creator, Satoshi Nakamoto.
最近,由于围绕比特币 (BTC) 创造者中本聪 (Satoshi Nakamoto) 的身份进行猜测,Polymarket 的兴趣大增。
As AMBCrypto reported, a documentary by HBO set to air on 8 October claims to have identified Nakamoto. As a result, the “Who will HBO doc identify as Satoshi?” bet on Polymarket has already amassed $814,000 in betting volumes, barely two days after launching.
据 AMBCrypto 报道,HBO 将于 10 月 8 日播出的一部纪录片声称已经确认了中本聪的身份。因此,“HBO 纪录片将认定谁是中本聪?”推出仅两天后,Polymarket 的投注就已经积累了 814,000 美元的投注额。
(Source: Polymarket)
(来源:Polymarket)
At press time, 49.5% of wagers predicted that computer scientist Len Sassaman, who passed on in 2011, would be revealed as Satoshi. The speculation is driven by Sassaman’s history as a member of the International Financial Cryptography Association.
截至发稿时,49.5% 的赌注预测 2011 年去世的计算机科学家 Len Sassaman 将被揭露为中本聪。这一猜测是由萨萨曼作为国际金融密码学协会成员的历史推动的。
Is Polymarket’s growth good for POL?
Polymarket 的增长对 POL 有利吗?
Polymarket runs on the Polygon layer 2 network and the popularity of this betting site has driven the network’s usage, but the same has not been reflected in its native token POL, formerly known as MATIC.
Polymarket 在 Polygon 第 2 层网络上运行,该博彩网站的流行推动了网络的使用,但同样的情况并未反映在其原生代币 POL(以前称为 MATIC)中。
POL was trading at $0.384, at press time, after 1.92% gains in 24 hours. This, after it fell by over 10% in just 7 days.
截至发稿时,POL 交易价格为 0.384 美元,24 小时内上涨 1.92%。这是在短短 7 天内下跌超过 10% 后的结果。
On the hourly chart, POL appeared to be trading within an ascending broadening wedge pattern. This is usually a bearish continuation pattern, one that suggests sellers might take control of the price action.
在小时图上,POL 似乎在上升加宽楔形模式内交易。这通常是一种看跌持续模式,表明卖方可能会控制价格走势。
(Source: Tradingview)
(来源:Tradingview)
However, its bearish momentum was showing signs of weakness as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) line converged with the Signal line from below. If the RSI confirms a strong move above the Signal line, it will invalidate the bearish thesis.
然而,随着相对强弱指数(RSI)线从下方与信号线收敛,其看跌势头显示出疲软迹象。如果 RSI 确认强劲移动至信号线之上,则看跌论点将失效。
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line also highlighted a similar outlook after converging with the Signal line. However, to confirm the bullish thesis, the MACD histogram bars should turn green.
移动平均收敛分歧(MACD)线在与信号线收敛后也强调了类似的前景。然而,为了证实看涨论点,MACD 柱状图应该变成绿色。
If bears take control, POL will likely plunge to test support at $0.37. However, buying activity could see POL break resistance at $0.38 and extend gains.
如果空头占据主导地位,POL 可能会暴跌至 0.37 美元的支撑位。然而,购买活动可能导致 POL 突破 0.38 美元的阻力位并扩大涨幅。
With POL struggling, speculation is rife that Polymarket could be launching its own token. According to The Information, this token will be used to run the betting site.
随着 POL 陷入困境,人们普遍猜测 Polymarket 可能会推出自己的代币。据 The Information 报道,该代币将用于运营该投注网站。
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