将比特币描绘成那条河正在放慢脚步。那是2025年3月击中加密货币国王的现实

这是2025年3月击中加密货币国王的现实。2025年3月18日，Glassnodes“一周的链新闻通讯”的数据揭示了一个鲜明的真相：流动性 - 比特币价格引擎的燃料 - 快速干燥。

The crypto king, Bitcoin, is slowing to a trickle.

加密国王比特币正在放慢脚步。

Liquidity, the fuel of Bitcoin’s price engine, is drying up fast. Net capital inflows, measured by the Realized Cap, had a sluggish +0.67% monthly growth in March 18, 2025.

比特币价格发动机的燃料流动性快速干燥。净资本流入以实现的上限衡量，在2025年3月18日的每月增长速度缓慢 +0.67％。

On-chain, the ‘Hot Supply,’ coins aged one week or less, dropped from 5.9% of circulating supply at the market high to 2.8% now, a 50%+ contraction, signaling fewer coins are up for grabs.

链上的“热供应”硬币年龄为一周或更短，从市场高的5.9％下降到现在的2.8％，收缩了50％以上，发出的信号更少。

Exchanges saw a 54% crash in daily inflows, falling from +58.6k BTC at the peak to +26.9k BTC. Less Bitcoin hitting exchanges means weaker buying power.

交易所每天流入发生54％的崩溃，从峰值 +58.6k BTC降至 +26.9k BTC。较少的比特币交换意味着购买力较弱。

Futures markets are also shrinking. Open interest fell 35%, from $57 billion at Bitcoin’s all-time high to $37 billion today, according to Glassnodes' "The Week On-chain Newsletter."

期货市场也在萎缩。根据格拉斯诺德斯（Glassnodes）的《链新闻通讯》（On-Chain Newsletter）的说法，公开兴趣从比特币历史最高高点的570亿美元降至370亿美元。

Recently, traders pulled back, and the cash-and-carry trade, blending US spot ETFs and CME Group futures, is unraveling. ETF outflows spiked as futures positions closed, adding sell pressure to spot markets.

最近，贸易商退缩了，现金和携带的交易融合了我们的现货ETF和CME集团期货，正在拆开。随着期货职位关闭，ETF流出了飙升，从而增加了现货市场的卖出压力。

Options markets lean bearish. The Volatility Smile shows put options, bets on a price drop, carry higher premiums. The Options 25 Delta Skew, comparing volatility between puts and calls, climbed for 1-week and 1-month contracts, a sign traders want downside protection.

期权市场精益看跌。波动性的微笑表明，赌注降低，押注更高的保费。选项25 Delta偏斜，比较了拨号和电话之间的波动性，攀升了1周和1个月的合同，标志交易者希望下行保护。

Investors split into two camps:

投资者分为两个营地：

Short-Term Holders (STHs), those owning Bitcoin for 155 days or less, are hurting. Their unrealized losses hit a +2σ level, a mark seen in past bull market dips but mild compared to the 2022 crash or May 2021 sell-off. Over 30 days, STHs locked in $7 billion in losses, the biggest capitulation this cycle, yet not full-blown panic.

短期持有人（STH）是那些拥有比特币155天或更短的人受伤的人。他们未实现的损失达到了 +2σ水平，这在过去的牛市中下降了，但与2022年5月的崩溃或2021年5月相比，这是温和的。超过30天，STH锁定了70亿美元的损失，这是本周期最大的投降，但并非全面恐慌。

Long-Term Holders (LTHs) play a different game. Their Binary Spending Indicator shows spending has eased. Supply held by LTHs is rising after months of decline.

长期持有人（LTHS）玩不同的游戏。他们的二进制支出指标表明支出已经减轻。 LTHS持有的供应数月后正在上升。

Even at $82,000, exchange inflows from LTHs stayed modest—some took profits, but most held firm. LTHs control a hefty chunk of network wealth, more than usual for this cycle stage, and their grip could shape what’s next.

即使是82,000美元，LTHS的交换流入仍保持谦虚 - 有些利润，但最坚定。 lths控制着大量的网络财富，比这个周期阶段的平常要多，他们的抓地力可以影响下一步。