宾夕法尼亚州和美国比特币战略储备票据可能带来 23.3B 美元的新 BTC 需求

明年，唐纳德·特朗普的总统任期预计将为美国事务的许多方面带来一些变化，包括对比特币（BTC）的情绪升温。

Donald Trump’s presidency is expected to bring a number of changes to many aspects of U.S. affairs, including a warmed up sentiment toward bitcoin (BTC).

唐纳德·特朗普的总统任期预计将为美国事务的许多方面带来一些变化，包括对比特币（BTC）的情绪升温。

On the world’s largest prediction platform Polymarket, for example, the odds of Trump creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve during his first 100 days in office have jumped from 22% on November 10 to 38% at the time of writing. The increase came shortly after the introduction of the Pennsylvania Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act last week.

例如，在全球最大的预测平台 Polymarket 上，特朗普在上任的头 100 天内建立战略比特币储备的可能性已从 11 月 10 日的 22% 跃升至撰写本文时的 38%。上周宾夕法尼亚州比特币战略储备法案出台后不久，比特币价格就出现了上涨。

Furthermore, the Satoshi Action Fund advocacy group — which is behind the new strategic reserve initiative and also helped the state with the Bitcoin Rights bill introduced last month — has shared with Fox Business that it’s also speaking with 10 other states about similar legislation.

此外，中本聪行动基金倡导组织——该组织是新战略储备计划的幕后推手，并帮助该州实施了上个月推出的比特币权利法案——已与福克斯商业频道透露，它还在与其他 10 个州就类似立法进行磋商。

If passed into law, both bills would have significant ramifications for bitcoin markets. Namely, Pennsylvania’s Strategic Reserve bill aims to allow the state to invest up to 10% of certain funds, including the General Fund, the Rainy Day Fund, and the State Investment Fund, into bitcoin. According to the state’s 2023 Treasury Annual Investment Report, these funds manage approximately $51 billion in assets combined, so an allocation of 10% would represent an estimated $5.1 billion investment in bitcoin.

如果通过成为法律，这两项法案都将对比特币市场产生重大影响。也就是说，宾夕法尼亚州的战略储备法案旨在允许该州将高达 10% 的某些基金（包括普通基金、雨天基金和国家投资基金）投资于比特币。根据该州 2023 年财政部年度投资报告，这些基金管理着约 510 亿美元的资产，因此 10% 的分配相当于对比特币的估计 51 亿美元投资。

Similarly, the “Boost Innovation, Technology, Competitiveness through Optimized Investment Nationwide” — or the BITCOIN Act — introduced by Senator Cynthia Lummis earlier this year, proposes that the U.S. creates a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The reserve will be built by purchasing bitcoin as well as keeping the BTC that have been seized by U.S. authorities instead of selling them — that’s at least 69,370 BTC to date. The BITCOIN Act calls for annual purchases of up to 200,000 BTC for five years, for a total of 1,000,000 BTC.

同样，参议员辛西娅·鲁米斯（Cynthia Lummis）今年早些时候提出的“通过全国范围内优化投资促进创新、技术和竞争力”（即《比特币法案》）建议美国建立战略比特币储备。该储备将通过购买比特币以及保留美国当局扣押的比特币而不是出售它们来建立——迄今为止至少有 69,370 比特币。 《比特币法案》要求五年内每年购买最多 200,000 BTC，总计 1,000,000 BTC。

At current prices, this means that if the bill passes, approximately $6.4 billion worth of bitcoin — that would have been sold otherwise — will no longer hit the market. On top of that, there will be an additional $18.2 billion bid every 12 months for five years straight. Including the potential allocation from Pennsylvania, there is a potential for $23.3 billion worth of bitcoin being purchased in the open market if or when the bills are passed into law.

按照目前的价格，这意味着如果该法案通过，价值约 64 亿美元的比特币（否则本来会被出售）将不再进入市场。除此之外，连续五年每 12 个月就会有 182 亿美元的额外出价。如果或当这些法案通过成为法律时，包括宾夕法尼亚州的潜在拨款在内，公开市场上可能会购买价值 233 亿美元的比特币。

To put this in perspective, the combined bitcoin amount to be purchased between the two bills above, assuming current prices, would be approximately 256,000 BTC. That’s equivalent to almost an entire month’s worth of bitcoin trading volume at Coinbase, the largest U.S. crypto exchange, which traded an average of 309,000 BTC per month over Q3 this year.

从这个角度来看，假设当前价格，上述两张账单之间要购买的比特币总金额约为 256,000 BTC。这相当于美国最大的加密货币交易所 Coinbase 几乎整个月的比特币交易量，今年第三季度，该交易所平均每月交易 309,000 比特币。

Introducing purchase orders of this magnitude would significantly impact supply and demand dynamics, and ultimately — the price of bitcoin. Additionally, there’s also the 69,370 confiscated BTC that would no longer weigh down on exchange order books if the BITCOIN Act is passed.

引入如此大规模的采购订单将极大地影响供需动态，并最终影响比特币的价格。此外，如果比特币法案获得通过，还有 69,370 枚被没收的比特币将不再对交易订单簿造成压力。

More buy-side demand would have upward pressure on prices, and the same goes for having less sell-side supply. Beyond the market impact, the approval of any of the two aforementioned bills would have major ramifications for other sovereign portfolios, sparking conversations about bitcoin allocations among the largest asset managers in the world.

买方需求增加将对价格产生上行压力，卖方供应减少也是如此。除了市场影响之外，上述两项法案中任何一项的批准都将对其他主权投资组合产生重大影响，引发全球最大资产管理公司之间关于比特币配置的讨论。

Now that the election has passed, all eyes are on whether or not Trump will follow through with his bitcoin promises, with the Strategic Reserve likely being at the heart of most bitcoin-related conversations for months to come.

既然选举已经通过，所有人的目光都集中在特朗普是否会兑现他的比特币承诺，而战略储备可能会成为未来几个月大多数与比特币相关的对话的核心。