賓州和美國比特幣戰略儲備票據可能帶來 23.3B 美元的新 BTC 需求

明年，唐納德·川普的總統任期預計將為美國事務的許多方面帶來一些變化，包括對比特幣（BTC）的情緒升溫。

Donald Trump’s presidency is expected to bring a number of changes to many aspects of U.S. affairs, including a warmed up sentiment toward bitcoin (BTC).

唐納德·川普的總統任期預計將為美國事務的許多方面帶來一些變化，包括對比特幣（BTC）的情緒升溫。

On the world’s largest prediction platform Polymarket, for example, the odds of Trump creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve during his first 100 days in office have jumped from 22% on November 10 to 38% at the time of writing. The increase came shortly after the introduction of the Pennsylvania Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act last week.

例如，在全球最大的預測平台 Polymarket 上，川普在上任的頭 100 天內建立戰略比特幣儲備的可能性已從 11 月 10 日的 22% 躍升至撰寫本文時的 38%。上週賓州比特幣戰略儲備法案出台後不久，比特幣價格就出現了上漲。

Furthermore, the Satoshi Action Fund advocacy group — which is behind the new strategic reserve initiative and also helped the state with the Bitcoin Rights bill introduced last month — has shared with Fox Business that it’s also speaking with 10 other states about similar legislation.

此外，中本聰行動基金倡導組織——該組織是新戰略儲備計劃的幕後推手，並幫助該州實施了上個月推出的比特幣權利法案——已與福克斯商業頻道透露，它還在與其他10 個州就類似立法進行磋商。

If passed into law, both bills would have significant ramifications for bitcoin markets. Namely, Pennsylvania’s Strategic Reserve bill aims to allow the state to invest up to 10% of certain funds, including the General Fund, the Rainy Day Fund, and the State Investment Fund, into bitcoin. According to the state’s 2023 Treasury Annual Investment Report, these funds manage approximately $51 billion in assets combined, so an allocation of 10% would represent an estimated $5.1 billion investment in bitcoin.

如果通過成為法律，這兩項法案都將對比特幣市場產生重大影響。也就是說，賓州的戰略儲備法案旨在允許該州將高達 10% 的某些基金（包括普通基金、雨天基金和國家投資基金）投資於比特幣。根據該州 2023 年財政部年度投資報告，這些基金管理約 510 億美元的資產，因此 10% 的分配相當於對比特幣的估計 51 億美元投資。

Similarly, the “Boost Innovation, Technology, Competitiveness through Optimized Investment Nationwide” — or the BITCOIN Act — introduced by Senator Cynthia Lummis earlier this year, proposes that the U.S. creates a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The reserve will be built by purchasing bitcoin as well as keeping the BTC that have been seized by U.S. authorities instead of selling them — that’s at least 69,370 BTC to date. The BITCOIN Act calls for annual purchases of up to 200,000 BTC for five years, for a total of 1,000,000 BTC.

同樣，參議員辛西婭·魯米斯（Cynthia Lummis）今年稍早提出的「透過全國優化投資促進創新、技術和競爭力」（即《比特幣法案》）建議美國建立戰略比特幣儲備。該儲備將透過購買比特幣以及保留美國當局扣押的比特幣而不是出售它們來建立——迄今為止至少有 69,370 比特幣。 《比特幣法案》要求五年內每年購買最多 200,000 BTC，總計 1,000,000 BTC。

At current prices, this means that if the bill passes, approximately $6.4 billion worth of bitcoin — that would have been sold otherwise — will no longer hit the market. On top of that, there will be an additional $18.2 billion bid every 12 months for five years straight. Including the potential allocation from Pennsylvania, there is a potential for $23.3 billion worth of bitcoin being purchased in the open market if or when the bills are passed into law.

按照目前的價格，這意味著如果該法案通過，價值約 64 億美元的比特幣（否則本來會被出售）將不再進入市場。除此之外，連續五年每 12 個月就會有 182 億美元的額外出價。如果或當這些法案通過成為法律時，包括賓州的潛在撥款在內，公開市場上可能會購買價值 233 億美元的比特幣。

To put this in perspective, the combined bitcoin amount to be purchased between the two bills above, assuming current prices, would be approximately 256,000 BTC. That’s equivalent to almost an entire month’s worth of bitcoin trading volume at Coinbase, the largest U.S. crypto exchange, which traded an average of 309,000 BTC per month over Q3 this year.

從這個角度來看，假設當前價格，上述兩張帳單之間要購買的比特幣總金額約為 256,000 BTC。這相當於美國最大的加密貨幣交易所 Coinbase 幾乎整個月的比特幣交易量，今年第三季度，該交易所平均每月交易 309,000 比特幣。

Introducing purchase orders of this magnitude would significantly impact supply and demand dynamics, and ultimately — the price of bitcoin. Additionally, there’s also the 69,370 confiscated BTC that would no longer weigh down on exchange order books if the BITCOIN Act is passed.

引入如此大規模的採購訂單將極大地影響供需動態，並最終影響比特幣的價格。此外，如果比特幣法案獲得通過，還有 69,370 枚被沒收的比特幣將不再對交易訂單簿造成壓力。

More buy-side demand would have upward pressure on prices, and the same goes for having less sell-side supply. Beyond the market impact, the approval of any of the two aforementioned bills would have major ramifications for other sovereign portfolios, sparking conversations about bitcoin allocations among the largest asset managers in the world.

買方需求增加將對價格產生上行壓力，賣方供應減少也是如此。除了市場影響之外，上述兩項法案中任何一項的批准都將對其他主權投資組合產生重大影響，引發全球最大資產管理公司之間關於比特幣配置的討論。

Now that the election has passed, all eyes are on whether or not Trump will follow through with his bitcoin promises, with the Strategic Reserve likely being at the heart of most bitcoin-related conversations for months to come.

既然選舉已經通過，所有人的目光都集中在川普是否會兌現他的比特幣承諾，而戰略儲備可能會成為未來幾個月大多數與比特幣相關的對話的核心。