由Omkar Godbole（除非另有说明），加密市场在过去两天中一直稳步

加密货币市场在过去两天中稳定了

The crypto market has steadied over the past two days, with bitcoin briefly topping the 200-day simply moving average at $84,000 early today.

在过去的两天中，加密货币市场一直稳定下来，比特币短暂地超过了200天的移动平均水平，即今天早些时候84,000美元。

softer-than-expected U.S. CPI release on Wednesday aided the sentiment by validating traders' pricing of four interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.

比预期的美国CPI在周三发布的效果超过了预期的美国CPI，通过验证交易者今年对美联储削减的四项利率削减的定价。

The past 24 hours' recovery was led by the memecoin sector, followed by tokens of layer-1 and layer-2 blockchains as well as AI tokens, according to data source Velo.

根据数据源Velo的数据，过去24小时的恢复是由Memecoin部门领导的，其次是第1层和第2层区块链以及AI令牌的令牌。

Still, issues such as President Trump's tariffs, U.S. recession concerns and the bond-market volatility that recently rocked risk assets, including BTC, remain to cast doubt on the sustainability of the market recovery. That said, at least two factors suggest otherwise.

尽管如此，特朗普总统的关税，美国经济衰退的问题和债券市场波动之类的问题仍在包括BTC在内的风险资产，仍然对市场复苏的可持续性感到怀疑。也就是说，至少有两个因素暗示。

The first is the quarter-end rebalancing. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are down 6% and 4.8%, respectively, this quarter, while the 10-year Treasury note is up 5%. That means funds mandated to maintain a specific asset allocation mix are now overweight bonds and will probably rebalance by buying equities and selling bonds as the quarter end nears.

首先是四分之一末的重新平衡。本季度，纳斯达克和标准普尔500指数分别下跌了6％和4.8％，而10年的国库券上涨了5％。这意味着，旨在维持特定资产分配组合的资金现在是超重的债券，并且随着季度结束的临近，购买股票和出售债券可能会重新平衡。

Those actions will push bond yields and stock prices higher and could bode well for bitcoin and the broader crypto market, given the strong correlation between BTC and the technology stocks.

鉴于BTC与技术股之间的密切相关性，这些行动将推动债券收益率和股票价格提高，并可能对比特币和更广泛的加密货币市场良好。

The other factor is the yen, which has come under pressure since CoinDesk noted the potential for renewed crypto market stability on the back of overstretched bullish positioning in the Japanese currency. The yen, seen as a haven investment, may remain under pressure as the potential quarter-end rebalancing lifts U.S. bond yields. In other words, risk-off stemming from the JPY strength and the resulting unwinding of the yen carry trades may be over for now.

另一个因素是日元，自科德斯克（Coindesk）指出在日本货币中过度伸展的看涨位置后，加密货币市场稳定的潜力以来，它一直受到压力。日元被视为避风港的投资，可能会承受压力，因为潜在的季度重新平衡提高了美国的债券收益率。换句话说，源于JPY力量和日元携带交易的产生的风险可能已经结束。

Positive net global liquidity could also grease risk-taking.

全球净流动性积极也可能使冒险润滑。

"Net global liquidity, largely due to China and the U.S., is increasing," Two Prime, an SEC-registered investment adviser, said in a Telegram chat. "This may counteract some of the effects of the yen trade’s unwind. In addition, as the U.S. gets its own rates and inflation under better control, which has already started to incrementally trend down over the past few months, it will reduce pressure on other central bank bonds and slow rate growth on yen borrow."

SEC登记的投资顾问两位Prime在电报聊天中说：“全球流动性很大程度上是由于中国和美国的增加。” “这可能会抵消日元贸易放松的某些影响。此外，由于美国获得了自身的利率和通货膨胀，这在过去几个月中已经开始逐渐趋于趋势，因此它将减少对其他中央银行债券的压力，并减轻日元借入的增长率。”

Still, traders need to be vigilant for volatility, as Deribit's BTC-listed options market tracked by Amberdata shows significant negative dealer gamma between $81,000 and $87,000. Dealers are likely to trade in the direction of the market to maintain their overall exposure neutral, adding to price swings.

尽管如此，交易者仍需要保持警惕，因为Amberdata跟踪的Deribit上市期权市场显示出显着的负经销商Gamma在81,000美元至87,000美元之间。经销商可能会朝着市场方向进行交易，以保持其整体曝光中性，从而增加了价格波动。

The U.S. is set to publish the February producer price index (PPI) report and the weekly jobless claims later today. A hotter-than-expected PPI, representing pipeline inflation, may inject downside volatility into risk assets. Stay alert!

美国将发布2月的生产商价格指数（PPI）报告，并在今天晚些时候发布失业者索赔。代表管道通货膨胀的高于预期的PPI可能会向风险资产注入下行波动。保持警觉！

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By Shaurya Malwa

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Source: Farside Investors

资料来源：Farside Investors

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