由Omkar Godbole（除非另有說明），加密市場在過去兩天中一直穩步

加密貨幣市場在過去兩天中穩定了

The crypto market has steadied over the past two days, with bitcoin briefly topping the 200-day simply moving average at $84,000 early today.

在過去的兩天中，加密貨幣市場一直穩定下來，比特幣短暫地超過了200天的移動平均水平，即今天早些時候84,000美元。

softer-than-expected U.S. CPI release on Wednesday aided the sentiment by validating traders' pricing of four interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.

比預期的美國CPI在周三發布的效果超過了預期的美國CPI，通過驗證交易者今年對美聯儲削減的四項利率削減的定價。

The past 24 hours' recovery was led by the memecoin sector, followed by tokens of layer-1 and layer-2 blockchains as well as AI tokens, according to data source Velo.

根據數據源Velo的數據，過去24小時的恢復是由Memecoin部門領導的，其次是第1層和第2層區塊鏈以及AI令牌的令牌。

Still, issues such as President Trump's tariffs, U.S. recession concerns and the bond-market volatility that recently rocked risk assets, including BTC, remain to cast doubt on the sustainability of the market recovery. That said, at least two factors suggest otherwise.

儘管如此，特朗普總統的關稅，美國經濟衰退的問題和債券市場波動之類的問題仍在包括BTC在內的風險資產，仍然對市場復甦的可持續性感到懷疑。也就是說，至少有兩個因素暗示。

The first is the quarter-end rebalancing. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are down 6% and 4.8%, respectively, this quarter, while the 10-year Treasury note is up 5%. That means funds mandated to maintain a specific asset allocation mix are now overweight bonds and will probably rebalance by buying equities and selling bonds as the quarter end nears.

首先是四分之一末的重新平衡。本季度，納斯達克和標準普爾500指數分別下跌了6％和4.8％，而10年的國庫券上漲了5％。這意味著，旨在維持特定資產分配組合的資金現在是超重的債券，並且隨著季度結束的臨近，購買股票和出售債券可能會重新平衡。

Those actions will push bond yields and stock prices higher and could bode well for bitcoin and the broader crypto market, given the strong correlation between BTC and the technology stocks.

鑑於BTC與技術股之間的密切相關性，這些行動將推動債券收益率和股票價格提高，並可能對比特幣和更廣泛的加密貨幣市場良好。

The other factor is the yen, which has come under pressure since CoinDesk noted the potential for renewed crypto market stability on the back of overstretched bullish positioning in the Japanese currency. The yen, seen as a haven investment, may remain under pressure as the potential quarter-end rebalancing lifts U.S. bond yields. In other words, risk-off stemming from the JPY strength and the resulting unwinding of the yen carry trades may be over for now.

另一個因素是日元，自科德斯克（Coindesk）指出在日本貨幣中過度伸展的看漲位置後，加密貨幣市場穩定的潛力以來，它一直受到壓力。日元被視為避風港的投資，可能會承受壓力，因為潛在的季度重新平衡提高了美國的債券收益率。換句話說，源於JPY力量和日元攜帶交易的產生的風險可能已經結束。

Positive net global liquidity could also grease risk-taking.

全球淨流動性積極也可能使冒險潤滑。

"Net global liquidity, largely due to China and the U.S., is increasing," Two Prime, an SEC-registered investment adviser, said in a Telegram chat. "This may counteract some of the effects of the yen trade’s unwind. In addition, as the U.S. gets its own rates and inflation under better control, which has already started to incrementally trend down over the past few months, it will reduce pressure on other central bank bonds and slow rate growth on yen borrow."

SEC登記的投資顧問兩位Prime在電報聊天中說：“全球流動性很大程度上是由於中國和美國的增加。” “這可能會抵消日元貿易放鬆的某些影響。此外，由於美國獲得了自身的利率和通貨膨脹，這在過去幾個月中已經開始逐漸趨於趨勢，因此它將減少對其他中央銀行債券的壓力，並減輕日元借入的增長率。”

Still, traders need to be vigilant for volatility, as Deribit's BTC-listed options market tracked by Amberdata shows significant negative dealer gamma between $81,000 and $87,000. Dealers are likely to trade in the direction of the market to maintain their overall exposure neutral, adding to price swings.

儘管如此，交易者仍需要保持警惕，因為Amberdata跟踪的Deribit上市期權市場顯示出顯著的負經銷商Gamma在81,000美元至87,000美元之間。經銷商可能會朝著市場方向進行交易，以保持其整體曝光中性，從而增加了價格波動。

The U.S. is set to publish the February producer price index (PPI) report and the weekly jobless claims later today. A hotter-than-expected PPI, representing pipeline inflation, may inject downside volatility into risk assets. Stay alert!

美國將發布2月的生產商價格指數（PPI）報告，並在今天晚些時候發布失業者索賠。代表管道通貨膨脹的高於預期的PPI可能會向風險資產注入下行波動。保持警覺！

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By Shaurya Malwa

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Source: Farside Investors

資料來源：Farside Investors

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