NBA 选秀迷宫：名单管理的演变揭开了选秀的不确定性

由于联盟在名单管理方面灵活性的增强，NBA 选秀变得越来越复杂。为了迎接乐透之夜，各支球队积极交易首轮选秀权，预计大约有 25% 的选秀权会易手。尽管与每个交易选秀权相关的保护和延期选项各不相同，但这种情况还是发生了。了解这些选秀权的当前所有权和注意事项至关重要，因为乐透中的 14 个选秀权中只有 9 个将保留在其原始所有者手中。

NBA Draft Landscape: Complexity and Uncertainty amidst Roster Management Evolution

NBA 选秀形势：名单管理演变中的复杂性和不确定性

The upcoming NBA Draft is poised to be an intricate affair, marked by a shift in roster management strategies that has injected unprecedented complexity into the allocation of first-round picks.

即将到来的 NBA 选秀将是一场错综复杂的事情，其特点是名单管理策略的转变，这给首轮选秀权的分配带来了前所未有的复杂性。

Traditionally, teams held on to their first-round picks with tenacity. However, a recent league-wide trend has seen teams trading these picks with an ease akin to distributing candy. A study conducted prior to the 2023 offseason revealed that out of 210 first-round picks, a staggering 56 had changed hands.

传统上，球队会顽强地保住首轮选秀权。然而，最近全联盟的趋势是，球队交易这些选秀权就像分发糖果一样轻松。 2023 年休赛期之前进行的一项研究显示，在 210 个首轮选秀权中，有 56 个已易手，这一数字令人震惊。

This newfound willingness to trade first-round picks has created a labyrinthine landscape of pick ownership and contingencies. Some picks are protected against being conveyed, while others are subject to conveyances that may take years to materialize.

这种新发现的首轮选秀权交易意愿造成了选秀权所有权和意外事件的迷宫般的局面。有些选秀权受到保护，不被转让，而另一些选秀权则可能需要数年时间才能实现。

In the case of the Los Angeles Lakers, they hold the rights to the New Orleans Pelicans' first-round pick from the Anthony Davis trade. However, the Pelicans have the option to defer its conveyance to the 2025 draft.

就洛杉矶湖人队而言，他们拥有新奥尔良鹈鹕队从安东尼·戴维斯交易中获得的首轮选秀权。然而，鹈鹕队可以选择将其转让推迟到 2025 年选秀。

With the NBA Draft Lottery approaching, it is imperative to examine the 14 picks that will be assigned during the event.

随着NBA选秀抽签的临近，对抽签期间分配的14个选秀权进行审视势在必行。

Picks Retained by Original Owners

原始所有者保留的精选

Nine of the 14 lottery picks will remain with their original owners: Detroit Pistons (No. 1), Washington Wizards (No. 2), Charlotte Hornets (No. 3), Portland Trail Blazers (No. 4), San Antonio Spurs (No. 5), Memphis Grizzlies (No. 7), Atlanta Hawks (No. 10), Chicago Bulls (No. 11), and Sacramento Kings (No. 13).

14 个乐透选秀权中的 9 个将保留在原来的所有者手中：底特律活塞队（第 1 名）、华盛顿奇才队（第 2 名）、夏洛特黄蜂队（第 3 名）、波特兰开拓者队（第 4 名）、圣安东尼奥马刺队（第 4 名）。排名第 5）、孟菲斯灰熊队（排名第 7）、亚特兰大老鹰队（排名第 10）、芝加哥公牛队（排名第 11）和萨克拉门托国王队（排名第 13）。

Conditional Picks

有条件选择

The Toronto Raptors' No. 6 pick is subject to a top-six protection in the trade that sent Jakob Poeltl to the San Antonio Spurs. The Raptors have endured a season of strategic tanking in an attempt to retain the pick, resulting in a near 50-50 chance of it remaining in their possession or conveying to the Spurs.

多伦多猛龙队的第六顺位在雅各布·珀尔特尔被送到圣安东尼奥马刺队的交易中受到前六名的保护。猛龙队为了保住选秀权而经历了一个赛季的战略重挫，导致他们保留选秀权或将选秀权转让给马刺的可能性接近 50-50。

The Utah Jazz's No. 8 pick carries a top-10 protection. It will only convey to the Oklahoma City Thunder if it falls outside the top 10, an outcome with a negligible probability.

犹他爵士队的 8 号选秀权受到前 10 名的保护。只有当俄克拉荷马雷霆队跌出前十名时，它才会传达给俄克拉荷马城雷霆队，这种结果的可能性可以忽略不计。

Protected Picks

受保护的精选

The Houston Rockets will receive the Brooklyn Nets' No. 9 pick regardless of its position in the lottery, as it was traded without any protections in the James Harden deal.

休斯顿火箭队将获得布鲁克林篮网队的第 9 号选秀权，无论其在乐透中的位置如何，因为在詹姆斯·哈登交易中该选秀权是在没有任何保护的情况下被交易的。

The Oklahoma City Thunder are highly likely to acquire the No. 12 pick from the Houston Rockets, which was part of the Russell Westbrook trade. However, this pick carries a top-four protection, giving the Rockets a 7.2% chance of retaining it.

俄克拉荷马城雷霆队很有可能从休斯敦火箭队获得 12 号选秀权，这是拉塞尔·威斯布鲁克交易的一部分。不过，这个选秀权有前四保护，火箭保住的几率是7.2%。

Similarly, the Portland Trail Blazers are positioned to acquire the Golden State Warriors' No. 14 pick, traded as part of the Andre Iguodala cap dump. However, this pick also has a top-four protection, with a 3.4% probability of remaining with the Warriors.

同样，波特兰开拓者队也准备获得金州勇士队的 14 号选秀权，该选秀权是作为安德烈·伊戈达拉抛售帽子的一部分进行交易的。不过，这个选秀权也有前四的保障，有3.4%的概率留在勇士队。

Non-Lottery Picks

非乐透选秀权

Beyond the lottery, seven more first-round picks have been traded:

除了乐透区之外，还有七个首轮选秀权被交易：

• The Pelicans have the option to select the Lakers' No. 17 pick in 2024 or defer to an unprotected 2025 pick.
• The Pacers sent the Raptors the No. 19 pick in the Pascal Siakam trade.
• The Pelicans and Bucks swapped 2024 first-round picks, with New Orleans picking at No. 21 and Milwaukee at No. 23.
• The Mavericks sent the Knicks the No. 24 pick in the Kristaps Porzingis trade.
• The Clippers sent the Thunder the No. 26 pick in the Paul George trade, which was subsequently traded to Washington.
• The Thunder sent the No. 29 pick to Indiana in a draft night trade, which was then traded to the Raptors and finally to the Jazz.

Conclusion

鹈鹕队可以选择选择湖人队2024年的17号选秀权，或者推迟选择不受保护的2025年选秀权。步行者队在帕斯卡尔·西亚卡姆交易中将19号选秀权送给猛龙队。鹈鹕队和雄鹿队交换了2024年首轮选秀权，其中新奥尔良队在第21位选秀权，密尔沃基队在第23位。小牛队在克里斯塔普斯·波尔津吉斯交易中向尼克斯队送出了24号选秀权。快船队在保罗·乔治交易中向雷霆队送出了26号选秀权，这是随后交易到华盛顿。雷霆在选秀夜交易中将29号选秀权送到印第安纳，然后交易到猛龙，最后交易到爵士。结论

The NBA Draft has undergone a transformative shift, with teams increasingly willing to trade first-round picks. This trend has introduced complexities and contingencies that will shape the draft landscape for the foreseeable future. As the lottery approaches, teams will eagerly await the revelation of their draft order and the potential for further trades that could reshape the night's outcome.

NBA 选秀经历了一场变革，球队越来越愿意交易首轮选秀权。这种趋势带来了复杂性和突发事件，将在可预见的未来塑造选秀格局。随着乐透抽签的临近，球队将热切地等待他们的选秀顺序的公布以及可能重塑当晚结果的进一步交易的可能性。