NBA 選秀迷宮：名單管理的演變揭開了選秀的不確定性

由於聯盟在名單管理方面靈活性的增強，NBA 選秀變得越來越複雜。為了迎接樂透之夜，各隊積極交易首輪選秀權，預計大約有 25% 的選秀權會易手。儘管與每個交易選秀權相關的保護和延期選項各不相同，但這種情況還是發生了。了解這些選秀權的當前所有權和注意事項至關重要，因為樂透中的 14 個選秀權中只有 9 個將保留在其原始所有者手中。

NBA Draft Landscape: Complexity and Uncertainty amidst Roster Management Evolution

NBA 選秀情勢：名單管理演變中的複雜性和不確定性

The upcoming NBA Draft is poised to be an intricate affair, marked by a shift in roster management strategies that has injected unprecedented complexity into the allocation of first-round picks.

即將到來的 NBA 選秀將是一場錯綜複雜的事情，其特點是名單管理策略的轉變，這給首輪選秀權的分配帶來了前所未有的複雜性。

Traditionally, teams held on to their first-round picks with tenacity. However, a recent league-wide trend has seen teams trading these picks with an ease akin to distributing candy. A study conducted prior to the 2023 offseason revealed that out of 210 first-round picks, a staggering 56 had changed hands.

傳統上，球隊會頑強地保住首輪選秀權。然而，最近全聯盟的趨勢是，球隊交易這些選秀權就像分發糖果一樣輕鬆。 2023 年休賽期之前進行的一項研究顯示，在 210 個首輪選秀權中，有 56 個已易手，這一數字令人震驚。

This newfound willingness to trade first-round picks has created a labyrinthine landscape of pick ownership and contingencies. Some picks are protected against being conveyed, while others are subject to conveyances that may take years to materialize.

這種新發現的首輪選秀權交易意願造成了選秀權所有權和意外事件的迷宮般的局面。有些選秀權受到保護，不被轉讓，而有些選秀權可能需要數年時間才能實現。

In the case of the Los Angeles Lakers, they hold the rights to the New Orleans Pelicans' first-round pick from the Anthony Davis trade. However, the Pelicans have the option to defer its conveyance to the 2025 draft.

就洛杉磯湖人隊而言，他們擁有新奧爾良鵜鶘隊從安東尼戴維斯交易中獲得的首輪選秀權。然而，鵜鶘隊可以選擇將其轉讓推遲到 2025 年選秀。

With the NBA Draft Lottery approaching, it is imperative to examine the 14 picks that will be assigned during the event.

隨著NBA選秀抽籤的臨近，對抽籤期間分配的14個選秀權進行審視勢在必行。

Picks Retained by Original Owners

由原始所有者保留的精選

Nine of the 14 lottery picks will remain with their original owners: Detroit Pistons (No. 1), Washington Wizards (No. 2), Charlotte Hornets (No. 3), Portland Trail Blazers (No. 4), San Antonio Spurs (No. 5), Memphis Grizzlies (No. 7), Atlanta Hawks (No. 10), Chicago Bulls (No. 11), and Sacramento Kings (No. 13).

14 個樂透選秀權中的9 個將保留在原來的所有者手中：底特律活塞隊（第1 名）、華盛頓奇才隊（第2 名）、夏洛特黃蜂隊（第3 名）、波特蘭拓荒者（第4 名）、聖安東尼奧馬刺（第4 名）。 ）和薩克拉門托國王隊（排名第13）。

Conditional Picks

有條件選擇

The Toronto Raptors' No. 6 pick is subject to a top-six protection in the trade that sent Jakob Poeltl to the San Antonio Spurs. The Raptors have endured a season of strategic tanking in an attempt to retain the pick, resulting in a near 50-50 chance of it remaining in their possession or conveying to the Spurs.

多倫多暴龍隊的第六順位在雅各布·珀爾特爾被送到聖安東尼奧馬刺隊的交易中受到前六名的保護。暴龍隊為了保住選秀權而經歷了一個賽季的戰略重挫，導致他們保留選秀權或將選秀權轉讓給馬刺的可能性接近 50-50。

The Utah Jazz's No. 8 pick carries a top-10 protection. It will only convey to the Oklahoma City Thunder if it falls outside the top 10, an outcome with a negligible probability.

猶他爵士隊的 8 號選秀權受到前 10 名的保護。只有當俄克拉荷馬雷霆隊跌出前十名時，它才會傳達給俄克拉荷馬城雷霆隊，這種結果的可能性可以忽略不計。

Protected Picks

受保護的精選

The Houston Rockets will receive the Brooklyn Nets' No. 9 pick regardless of its position in the lottery, as it was traded without any protections in the James Harden deal.

休士頓火箭隊將獲得布魯克林籃網隊的第 9 號選秀權，無論其在樂透中的位置如何，因為在詹姆斯哈登交易中該選秀權是在沒有任何保護的情況下被交易的。

The Oklahoma City Thunder are highly likely to acquire the No. 12 pick from the Houston Rockets, which was part of the Russell Westbrook trade. However, this pick carries a top-four protection, giving the Rockets a 7.2% chance of retaining it.

俄克拉荷馬城雷霆隊很有可能從休士頓火箭隊獲得 12 號選秀權，這是拉塞爾威斯布魯克交易的一部分。不過，這個選秀權有前四名保護，火箭保住的幾率是7.2%。

Similarly, the Portland Trail Blazers are positioned to acquire the Golden State Warriors' No. 14 pick, traded as part of the Andre Iguodala cap dump. However, this pick also has a top-four protection, with a 3.4% probability of remaining with the Warriors.

同樣，波特蘭拓荒者隊也準備獲得金州勇士隊的 14 號選秀權，該選秀權是作為安德烈·伊戈達拉拋售帽子的一部分進行交易的。不過，這個選秀權也有前四名的保障，有3.4%的機率留在勇士隊。

Non-Lottery Picks

非樂透選秀權

Beyond the lottery, seven more first-round picks have been traded:

除了樂透區之外，還有七個首輪選秀權被交易：

• The Pelicans have the option to select the Lakers' No. 17 pick in 2024 or defer to an unprotected 2025 pick.
• The Pacers sent the Raptors the No. 19 pick in the Pascal Siakam trade.
• The Pelicans and Bucks swapped 2024 first-round picks, with New Orleans picking at No. 21 and Milwaukee at No. 23.
• The Mavericks sent the Knicks the No. 24 pick in the Kristaps Porzingis trade.
• The Clippers sent the Thunder the No. 26 pick in the Paul George trade, which was subsequently traded to Washington.
• The Thunder sent the No. 29 pick to Indiana in a draft night trade, which was then traded to the Raptors and finally to the Jazz.

Conclusion

鵜鶘隊可以選擇選擇湖人隊2024年的17號​​選秀權，或者推遲選擇不受保護的2025年選秀權。 。斯隊送出了24號選秀權。然後交易到暴龍，最後交易到爵士。

The NBA Draft has undergone a transformative shift, with teams increasingly willing to trade first-round picks. This trend has introduced complexities and contingencies that will shape the draft landscape for the foreseeable future. As the lottery approaches, teams will eagerly await the revelation of their draft order and the potential for further trades that could reshape the night's outcome.

NBA 選秀經歷了一場變革，球隊越來越願意交易首輪選秀權。這種趨勢帶來了複雜性和突發事件，將在可預見的未來塑造選秀格局。隨著樂透抽籤的臨近，球隊將熱切地等待他們的選秀順序的公佈以及可能重塑當晚結果的進一步交易的可能性。