“纯比特币周期”的神话和即将到来的山寨币季节

在围绕比特币的看涨触发因素的帮助下，“纯比特币周期”的概念最近受到关注。但仔细审视一下，这个说法是站不住脚的

The crypto market has seen a recent surge in activity, with bullish triggers surrounding Bitcoin leading to discussions about a “Bitcoin-only cycle.” However, upon closer examination, this assertion may not fully capture the dynamic nature of the market.

加密货币市场最近的活动激增，围绕比特币的看涨触发因素引发了关于“纯比特币周期”的讨论。然而，经过仔细审查，这种说法可能并不能完全体现市场的动态本质。

Bitcoin does play a crucial role in the crypto ecosystem, providing an entry point for liquidity and influencing broader market movements. However, the idea of a cycle driven solely by Bitcoin may overlook the interconnected relationship between Bitcoin and altcoins in shaping the market.

比特币确实在加密生态系统中发挥着至关重要的作用，为流动性提供了切入点并影响更广泛的市场走势。然而，仅由比特币驱动的周期的想法可能会忽视比特币和山寨币在塑造市场方面的相互关联的关系。

Altcoins: Following Bitcoin's Lead to Outpace Gains

山寨币：追随比特币的脚步，超越收益

Typically, in the early stages of a market rally, Bitcoin leads the way, with liquidity and attention gradually flowing down to other assets. Altcoins, despite being dismissed by some as “garbage,” have consistently shown their capacity for outsized gains.

通常，在市场反弹的早期阶段，比特币处于领先地位，流动性和注意力逐渐流向其他资产。尽管山寨币被一些人斥为“垃圾”，但它始终显示出其获得巨大收益的能力。

Davis points to earlier cycles, such as late 2020, where Bitcoin surged from $20,000 to $40,000, only for altcoins to stage a comeback soon after.

Davis 指出了早期的周期，例如 2020 年底，比特币从 20,000 美元飙升至 40,000 美元，但山寨币很快就卷土重来。

The varying market capitalizations of crypto assets often fuel arguments. Recent statistics show that, of the notable inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, which approached $37 billion, show a stark difference compared to Ethereum, which only saw about $2.5 billion.

加密资产不同的市值常常引发争论。最近的统计数据显示，比特币 ETF 的显着资金流入接近 370 亿美元，与以太坊相比存在明显差异，后者仅流入约 25 亿美元。

While Bitcoin still seems to be the better option for investors, Davis highlights that, as products like Solana ETFs and XRP ETFs become available, Wall Street's risk appetite will eventually reach altcoins. This shift is expected to unlock significant gains in the latter, considering that altcoins are poised to outpace Bitcoin in percentage gains.

尽管比特币对于投资者来说似乎仍然是更好的选择，但 Davis 强调，随着 Solana ETF 和 XRP ETF 等产品的出现，华尔街的风险偏好最终将转向山寨币。考虑到山寨币的涨幅有望超过比特币，这一转变预计将为后者带来显着的收益。

Greater Growth Potential in Diversified Assets

多元化资产增长潜力更大

Davis also discusses the long-term possibilities for Bitcoin, projecting a rise to about $250,000, indicating a 150% gain. However, he argues that such a move would be minor compared to the potential for exponential growth in altcoins.

戴维斯还讨论了比特币的长期可能性，预计其价格将上涨至 25 万美元左右，即上涨 150%。然而，他认为，与山寨币指数增长的潜力相比，这种举措是微不足道的。

If the market cap of Bitcoin were to increase by $3 trillion, the effects on altcoins could be staggering, leading to what Davis describes as a “hilariously rich” phase in the crypto market.

如果比特币的市值增加 3 万亿美元，对山寨币的影响可能是惊人的，从而导致戴维斯所说的加密市场的“暴富”阶段。

Recent market trends seem to be echoing earlier cycles. Rising throughout this bull run, Bitcoin dominance has shown signs of waning, suggesting an approaching altcoin season.

最近的市场趋势似乎与早期周期相呼应。在整个牛市中，比特币的主导地位不断上升，但已显示出减弱的迹象，这表明山寨币季节即将到来。

Davis contrasts this with the dynamics of the 2020 market, where Ethereum and other altcoins began rallying as Bitcoin dominance declined. He notes that, while Bitcoin is still a solid holding, investors seeking greater returns may find the former's potential limited compared to that of altcoins.

戴维斯将此与 2020 年市场的动态进行了对比，随着比特币主导地位的下降，以太坊和其他山寨币开始反弹。他指出，虽然比特币仍然是一个稳固的资产，但寻求更高回报的投资者可能会发现，与山寨币相比，前者的潜力有限。

Analyzing specific assets, Davis notes that altcoins like Solana and XRP have seen notable price swings. These assets have entered consolidation phases, resetting technical indicators like the MACD and RSI, preparing for possibly further rallies. He advises investors to watch for bullish flips in technical indicators, which would indicate the upcoming phase of increasing activity.

戴维斯在分析特定资产时指出，Solana 和 XRP 等山寨币的价格波动显着。这些资产已进入盘整阶段，重置 MACD 和 RSI 等技术指标，为可能的进一步反弹做好准备。他建议投资者关注技术指标的看涨反转，这将表明即将到来的活动增加阶段。

Opportunities in Shifting Markets and Diversification

市场变化和多元化的机遇

Furthermore, the “others” category of cryptocurrency—which excludes major players like Bitcoin and Ethereum—has seen a shift in its fortunes. This category, once boasting a market cap of $450 billion, has now slid back to about $350 billion, presenting what Davis describes as a crucial resistance.

此外，“其他”类别的加密货币（不包括比特币和以太坊等主要参与者）的命运也发生了变化。这一类别曾经拥有 4500 亿美元的市值，现在已回落至 3500 亿美元左右，出现了戴维斯所说的关键阻力。

Despite this setback, he anticipates these assets to break through this resistance and reach new highs, highlighting the cyclical nature of the market.

尽管遭遇挫折，他预计这些资产将突破这一阻力并创下新高，凸显市场的周期性。

Bitcoin, as Davis notes, serves as a foundational asset in any portfolio, but for those willing to take calculated risks, diversifying into altcoins can yield substantial rewards. While Bitcoin may offer stability, the latter holds the potential for exponential growth.

正如戴维斯指出的那样，比特币是任何投资组合中的基础资产，但对于那些愿意承担计算风险的人来说，多元化投资山寨币可以带来丰厚的回报。虽然比特币可能提供稳定性，但后者拥有指数增长的潜力。

Fueled by increasing risk appetite and favorable market conditions, cryptocurrency performance is set to see a revival in the coming months.

在风险偏好增加和有利的市场条件的推动下，加密货币的表现将在未来几个月内复苏。