「純比特幣週期」的神話和即將到來的山寨幣季節

在圍繞比特幣的看漲觸發因素的幫助下，「純比特幣週期」的概念最近受到關注。但仔細檢視一下，這個說法是站不住腳的

The crypto market has seen a recent surge in activity, with bullish triggers surrounding Bitcoin leading to discussions about a “Bitcoin-only cycle.” However, upon closer examination, this assertion may not fully capture the dynamic nature of the market.

加密貨幣市場最近的活動激增，圍繞比特幣的看漲觸發因素引發了關於「純比特幣週期」的討論。然而，經過仔細審查，這種說法可能無法完全反映市場的動態本質。

Bitcoin does play a crucial role in the crypto ecosystem, providing an entry point for liquidity and influencing broader market movements. However, the idea of a cycle driven solely by Bitcoin may overlook the interconnected relationship between Bitcoin and altcoins in shaping the market.

比特幣確實在加密生態系統中發揮著至關重要的作用，為流動性提供了切入點並影響更廣泛的市場趨勢。然而，僅由比特幣驅動的周期的想法可能會忽略比特幣和山寨幣在塑造市場方面的相互關聯的關係。

Altcoins: Following Bitcoin's Lead to Outpace Gains

山寨幣：追隨比特幣的腳步，超越收益

Typically, in the early stages of a market rally, Bitcoin leads the way, with liquidity and attention gradually flowing down to other assets. Altcoins, despite being dismissed by some as “garbage,” have consistently shown their capacity for outsized gains.

通常，在市場反彈的早期階段，比特幣處於領先地位，流動性和注意力逐漸流向其他資產。儘管山寨幣被一些人斥為“垃圾”，但它始終顯示出其獲得巨大收益的能力。

Davis points to earlier cycles, such as late 2020, where Bitcoin surged from $20,000 to $40,000, only for altcoins to stage a comeback soon after.

Davis 指出了早期的周期，例如 2020 年底，比特幣從 20,000 美元飆升至 40,000 美元，但山寨幣很快就捲土重來。

The varying market capitalizations of crypto assets often fuel arguments. Recent statistics show that, of the notable inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, which approached $37 billion, show a stark difference compared to Ethereum, which only saw about $2.5 billion.

加密資產不同的市值常常引發爭論。最近的統計數據顯示，比特幣 ETF 的顯著資金流入接近 370 億美元，與以太坊相比有明顯差異，後者僅流入約 25 億美元。

While Bitcoin still seems to be the better option for investors, Davis highlights that, as products like Solana ETFs and XRP ETFs become available, Wall Street's risk appetite will eventually reach altcoins. This shift is expected to unlock significant gains in the latter, considering that altcoins are poised to outpace Bitcoin in percentage gains.

儘管比特幣對投資者來說似乎仍然是更好的選擇，但 Davis 強調，隨著 Solana ETF 和 XRP ETF 等產品的出現，華爾街的風險偏好最終將轉向山寨幣。考慮到山寨幣的漲幅預計將超過比特幣，這一轉變預計將為後者帶來顯著的收益。

Greater Growth Potential in Diversified Assets

多元化資產成長潛力更大

Davis also discusses the long-term possibilities for Bitcoin, projecting a rise to about $250,000, indicating a 150% gain. However, he argues that such a move would be minor compared to the potential for exponential growth in altcoins.

戴維斯也討論了比特幣的長期可能性，預計其價格將上漲至 25 萬美元左右，即上漲 150%。然而，他認為，與山寨幣指數成長的潛力相比，這種舉措是微不足道的。

If the market cap of Bitcoin were to increase by $3 trillion, the effects on altcoins could be staggering, leading to what Davis describes as a “hilariously rich” phase in the crypto market.

如果比特幣的市值增加 3 兆美元，對山寨幣的影響可能是驚人的，從而導致戴維斯所說的加密市場的「暴富」階段。

Recent market trends seem to be echoing earlier cycles. Rising throughout this bull run, Bitcoin dominance has shown signs of waning, suggesting an approaching altcoin season.

最近的市場趨勢似乎與早期週期相呼應。在整個牛市中，比特幣的主導地位不斷上升，但已顯示出減弱的跡象，這表明山寨幣季節即將到來。

Davis contrasts this with the dynamics of the 2020 market, where Ethereum and other altcoins began rallying as Bitcoin dominance declined. He notes that, while Bitcoin is still a solid holding, investors seeking greater returns may find the former's potential limited compared to that of altcoins.

戴維斯將此與 2020 年市場的動態進行了對比，隨著比特幣主導地位的下降，以太坊和其他山寨幣開始反彈。他指出，雖然比特幣仍然是一個穩固的資產，但尋求更高回報的投資者可能會發現，與山寨幣相比，前者的潛力有限。

Analyzing specific assets, Davis notes that altcoins like Solana and XRP have seen notable price swings. These assets have entered consolidation phases, resetting technical indicators like the MACD and RSI, preparing for possibly further rallies. He advises investors to watch for bullish flips in technical indicators, which would indicate the upcoming phase of increasing activity.

戴維斯分析特定資產時指出，Solana 和 XRP 等山寨幣的價格波動顯著。這些資產已進入盤整階段，重置 MACD 和 RSI 等技術指標，為可能的進一步反彈做好準備。他建議投資人專注於技術指標的看漲反轉，這將顯示即將到來的活動增加階段。

Opportunities in Shifting Markets and Diversification

市場變化和多元化的機遇

Furthermore, the “others” category of cryptocurrency—which excludes major players like Bitcoin and Ethereum—has seen a shift in its fortunes. This category, once boasting a market cap of $450 billion, has now slid back to about $350 billion, presenting what Davis describes as a crucial resistance.

此外，「其他」類別的加密貨幣（不包括比特幣和以太坊等主要參與者）的命運也發生了變化。這個類別曾經擁有 4,500 億美元的市值，現在已回落至 3,500 億美元左右，出現了戴維斯所說的關鍵阻力。

Despite this setback, he anticipates these assets to break through this resistance and reach new highs, highlighting the cyclical nature of the market.

儘管遭遇挫折，他預計這些資產將突破這一阻力並創下新高，凸顯市場的周期性。

Bitcoin, as Davis notes, serves as a foundational asset in any portfolio, but for those willing to take calculated risks, diversifying into altcoins can yield substantial rewards. While Bitcoin may offer stability, the latter holds the potential for exponential growth.

正如戴維斯所指出的那樣，比特幣是任何投資組合中的基礎資產，但對於那些願意承擔計算風險的人來說，多元化投資山寨幣可以帶來豐厚的回報。雖然比特幣可能提供穩定性，但後者擁有指數成長的潛力。

Fueled by increasing risk appetite and favorable market conditions, cryptocurrency performance is set to see a revival in the coming months.

在風險偏好增加和有利的市場條件的推動下，加密貨幣的表現將在未來幾個月內復甦。