比特币价格预测：PCE 通胀数据令人失望后，BTC 反弹至 10 万美元——下一步是什么？

个人消费支出 (PCE) 指数的最新通胀数据显示 11 月份涨幅低于预期的 2.4%，略低于 2.5% 的预期，比特币价格已经反弹，升至每比特币 10 万美元附近。路透社调查的经济学家。

The bitcoin price has crashed back following its huge rally this year, with the bitcoin price dropping toward $90,000 and dragging down the rest of the crypto market.

比特币价格在今年大幅上涨后已经回落，跌至 9 万美元，拖累了加密货币市场的其他部分。

Bitcoin's drop of around 10% in the last 24 hours was dwarfed by ethereum and smaller, top ten cryptocurrencies—including solana and dogecoin—that crashed back by between 15% and 25%.

比特币在过去 24 小时内下跌了约 10%，与以太坊和较小的十大加密货币（包括 solana 和狗狗币）相比相形见绌，后者的跌幅在 15% 至 25% 之间。

Bitcoin has fallen sharply, dropping along with stock markets after the Federal Reserve warned inflation remained sticky and BlackRock (BLK) spooked the market.

在美联储警告通胀依然高企以及贝莱德（BLK）令市场恐慌后，比特币大幅下跌，与股市一起下跌。

The bitcoin price has plummeted toward $90,000 per bitcoin, dragging the wider crypto market lower and wiping away around $500 billion worth of value from the $3.2 trillion crypto market.

比特币价格已暴跌至每比特币 90,000 美元，拖累更广泛的加密市场走低，并从 3.2 万亿美元的加密市场中抹去了价值约 5000 亿美元的价值。

This week, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell disappointed traders when he warned interest rates would not come down as quickly as the Fed had previously thought, reducing its planned number of cuts to just two in 2025, from four previously.

本周，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔警告称，利率不会像美联储之前想象的那么快下降，他将 2025 年计划的降息次数从之前的四次减少到了两次，令交易员感到失望。

Bitcoin's huge 2024 rally was sparked by the U.S. Federal Reserve beginning to cut interest rates, an about-turn in monetary policy that sparked a huge stock market and crypto market rally.

比特币在 2024 年的大幅上涨是由美联储开始降息引发的，货币政策的转变引发了股市和加密货币市场的大幅上涨。

But Powell's comments sparked a sell-off in stocks and crypto, with the bitcoin price falling sharply from around $110,000 per bitcoin at the start of the week to trade within touching distance of $90,000 per bitcoin on Friday.

但鲍威尔的言论引发了股票和加密货币的抛售，比特币价格从周初的每比特币 11 万美元左右大幅下跌至周五的每比特币 9 万美元。

Bitcoin's drop was mirrored by other major cryptocurrencies, including ethereum, which crashed back to around $2,000 per ether, down from around $2,500 at the start of the week.

比特币的下跌也反映在其他主要加密货币上，包括以太坊，其价格从本周初的 2,500 美元左右跌至 2,000 美元左右。

Smaller, top ten cryptocurrencies crashed even further, with solana dropping below $40 and dogecoin falling back to around $0.13.

规模较小的十大加密货币跌幅更大，solana 跌破 40 美元，狗狗币回落至 0.13 美元左右。

The bitcoin price and crypto market sell-off came as the U.S. Federal Reserve raised its personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation target to 2.4% for November, slightly lower than the 2.5% estimate of economists polled by Reuters.

比特币价格和加密货币市场遭遇抛售之际，美联储将 11 月份个人消费支出 (PCE) 通胀目标提高至 2.4%，略低于路透社调查的经济学家预期的 2.5%。

The bitcoin price bounced back on Friday, climbing to within touching distance of $100,000 per bitcoin after the latest inflation data showed a smaller than expected rise.

在最新的通胀数据显示涨幅小于预期后，比特币价格周五反弹，升至每比特币 10 万美元附近。

Other major cryptocurrencies that had crashed lower, including ethereum, Ripple's XRP and dogecoin, also rebounded, with the combined market recovering around $300 billion of value as traders increase their bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts next year.

其他暴跌的主要加密货币，包括以太坊、Ripple 的 XRP 和狗狗币也出现反弹，随着交易员加大对美联储明年降息的押注，整个市场价值恢复了约 3000 亿美元。

Meanwhile, Cathie Wood, the founder of the Ark Investment Management hedge fund, reiterated her bullish bitcoin price prediction in a Bloomberg interview, forecasting that the bitcoin price will top $1 million by 2030—something that would give bitcoin a market capitalization of around $20 trillion.

与此同时，Ark Investment Management 对冲基金创始人 Cathie Wood 在接受彭博社采访时重申了她对比特币价格的乐观预测，预计到 2030 年，比特币价格将突破 100 万美元，这将使比特币的市值达到约 20 万亿美元。

"Bitcoin is becoming even more scarce than gold," Wood said. "The difference between gold and bitcoin is, when the gold price goes up, as it has, production goes up, the rate of increase in the supply goes up—that can not happen with bitcoin."

“比特币正变得比黄金更加稀缺，”伍德说。 “黄金和比特币之间的区别在于，当黄金价格上涨时，产量就会增加，供应量的增长率就会上升，而比特币则不会发生这种情况。”

Over the next few weeks, bitcoin and crypto market watchers expect the bitcoin price to remain prone to wild swings.

在接下来的几周内，比特币和加密货币市场观察人士预计比特币价格仍将出现剧烈波动。

"In terms of what is coming over the holiday period, the first rule of bitcoin is that it is always volatile in the same way water is always wet," James Toledano, chief operating officer at Unity Wallet, said in emailed comments.

Unity Wallet 首席运营官詹姆斯·托莱达诺 (James Toledano) 在电子邮件评论中表示：“就假期期间的情况而言，比特币的首要规则是它总是不稳定，就像水总是湿的一样。”

"It’s behavior is always mixed and there is zero discernible pattern at the end of the year and going into the next. Sometimes the price rises in the new year and at other times it falls. So, historically, we can say that bitcoin exhibits typically mixed behavior over Christmas and New Year," Toledano added, pointing to incoming U.S. president Donald Trump's January 20 inauguration as an important date to watch for the bitcoin and crypto market.

“它的行为总是很复杂，在年底和进入下一年时有零可辨别的模式。有时价格在新的一年上涨，有时价格下跌。因此，从历史上看，我们可以说比特币表现出典型的表现圣诞节和新年期间的行为参差不齐，”托莱达诺补充道，他指出即将上任的美国总统唐纳德·特朗普 1 月 20 日就职典礼是关注比特币和加密货币市场的重要日期。

"Comments from the Federal Reserve were a wake-up call," Danni Hewson, AJ Bell's head of financial analysis, said in emailed comments.

“美联储的言论敲响了警钟，”AJ Bell 金融分析主管丹尼·休森 (Danni Hewson) 在电子邮件评论中表示。

"Inflation is proving sticky and tax cuts and tariffs could be a recipe for reflation. "Risk appetite has been pared back. Trump 2.0 is a known unknown and no one wants to be overexposed if the climate proves inhospitable."

“通货膨胀被证明是粘性的，减税和关税可能是通货再膨胀的良方。”风险偏好已经减弱。特朗普2.0是一个众所周知的未知数，如果事实证明气候不适宜，没有人愿意过度暴露。”