芥末种子：一篇论文，即比特币（BTC）到2035年将达到每枚硬币1000万美元

在一份名为《芥末种子》的新出版物中，乔·伯内特（Unchained）市场研究的导演乔·伯内特（Joe Burnett）将一份论文视为设想到2035年每枚硬币1000万美元的论文。

Unchained’s Joe Burnett envisions a scenario where Bitcoin (BTC) could reach $10 million per coin by 2035, fueled by two key transformations: the “great flow of capital” into an asset with absolute scarcity and the “acceleration of deflationary technology.”

Unchained的乔·伯内特（Joe Burnett）设想了一个场景，到2035年，比特币（BTC）可以达到每枚硬币1000万美元，这是有两个关键转变的推动力：“大量资本”成为具有绝对稀缺性和“加速技术加速的资产”。

This is the core thesis of The Mustard Seed, a new quarterly letter launched by Burnett, director of market research at the crypto investment firm. The publication takes aim at the prevailing macroeconomic commentary, which Burnett says tends to focus too narrowly on the next earnings report or the immediate price volatility.

这是Crypto投资公司市场研究总监Burnett发起的芥末种子的核心论文。该出版物针对现行的宏观经济评论，伯内特（Burnett）表示，这往往会过于狭窄地关注下一个收益报告或即时价格波动。

In contrast, The Mustard Seed announces its mission clearly: “Unlike most financial commentary that fixates on the next quarter or next year, this letter takes the long view—identifying profound shifts before they become consensus.”

相比之下，芥末种子清楚地宣布了其使命：“与下一季度或明年固定的大多数财务评论不同，这封信持续了很长的看法 - 在达成共识之前就识别了深刻的转变。”

At the heart of Burnett’s outlook is the observation that the global financial system—comprising roughly $900 trillion in total assets—faces ongoing risks of “dilution or devaluation.” Bonds, currencies, equities, gold, and real estate each have expansionary or inflationary components that erode their store-of-value function.

伯内特（Burnett）前景的核心是观察到，全球金融体系（总资产总计约为900万亿美元）持续存在“稀释或贬值”的风险。债券，货币，股票，黄金和房地产具有扩展或通货膨胀组成部分，侵蚀了其价值储存功能。

As capital flowed into these assets over decades, it encountered a natural tendency toward dilution or devaluation. This is a critical point that several commentators have missed, Burnett says.

随着资本数十年来流入这些资产，它遇到了稀释或贬值的自然倾向。伯内特说，这是几位评论员错过的关键点。

Capital is constantly searching for a lower potential energy state—much like water flows downhill and seeks the lowest elevation. Before Bitcoin, wealth had no true escape from dilution or devaluation. No matter where capital was deployed—in real estate, bonds, gold, or stocks—each category acted like an “open bounty,” rendering it easy for capital to flow toward and erode the asset’s real value.

资本一直在寻找较低的势能状态，就像水流下坡并寻求最低海拔。在比特币之前，财富并没有真正摆脱稀释或贬值。不管在房地产，债券，黄金或股票中部署资本的何处，都像“开放赏金”一样，使资本容易流向和侵蚀资产的实际价值。

But with Bitcoin’s arrival on the scene, and its 21-million-coin hard cap, this dynamic changed. Here, at least from an internal perspective, no one can dilute or devalue the asset. Supply is fixed; demand, if it grows, translates directly into price appreciation.

但是，随着比特币的到来，现场及其2,100万克胶盖，这种动态发生了变化。在这里，至少从内部角度来看，没有人能稀释或贬值资产。供应是固定的；需求，如果增长，则直接转化为价格升值。

As Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) has noted in his “waterfall analogy,” capital naturally seeks the lowest potential energy state—just as water flows downhill. Before Bitcoin, wealth had no true escape from dilution or devaluation.

正如MicroStrategy的Michael Saylor（NASDAQ：MSTR）在他的“瀑布类比”中指出的那样，首都自然会寻求最低的势能状态，只是水流下坡。在比特币之前，财富并没有真正摆脱稀释或贬值。

Capital flowed toward any asset class where it could be easily deployed without consequence. This encouraged institutions and individuals to constantly search for new assets that could be quickly added to portfolios.

资本流向任何资产类别，可以轻松地部署而不会产生影响。这鼓励机构和个人不断寻找可以快速添加到投资组合的新资产。

And so, pre-Bitcoin, wealth managers could calmly distribute capital toward real estate, bonds, gold, or stocks. But each category had a mechanism by which its real value could be diluted or devalued over time.

因此，预币，财富管理人员可以平静地向房地产，债券，黄金或股票分配资本。但是每个类别都有一种机制，随着时间的推移，其实际价值可以稀释或贬值。

As soon as Bitcoin became widely recognized, the game changed. It’s an asset that cannot be diluted or devalued from within.

一旦比特币被广泛认可，游戏就会改变。这是一种无法从内部稀释或贬值的资产。

This is the essence of why, over the course of a 10-year period, a large-scale migration of global capital into Bitcoin makes sense. It’s the narrative that The Mustard Seed will follow.

这就是为什么在10年的过程中，全球资本向比特币进行大规模迁移是有意义的。这是芥末种子将跟随的叙述。

To illustrate Bitcoin’s unique supply dynamics, consider the halving cycles. In 2009, miners received 50 BTC per block—a sight to behold, like seeing Niagara Falls at full force.

为了说明比特币的独特供应动态，请考虑减半周期。 2009年，矿工每块获得50 BTC，这是一个值得一看的视线，就像看到尼亚加拉瀑布全力以赴一样。

Today, the reward dropped to 3.125 BTC, which feels more like glancing at the Falls after they’ve been halved several times and the flow is significantly reduced.

如今，奖励下降到3.125 BTC，感觉更像是在跌倒了几次之后瞥了一眼瀑布，并且流量大大减少了。

And in 2065, when newly minted Bitcoin supply will be minimal compared to the total volume, it will be like glancing at the Falls one last time after they’ve been reduced to a trickle.

在2065年，与总销量相比，新铸造的比特币供应将是最小的，就像将它们简化为trock流之后最后一次瞥了一眼瀑布一样。

Of course, several attempts to quantify Bitcoin’s global adoption rely on assumptions about how quickly institutions and individuals will move capital out of traditional markets and into the crypto domain.

当然，量化比特币全球采用的几项尝试取决于关于机构和个人将资本从传统市场移出并进入加密货币领域的速度的假设。

Two models—the Power Law Model, which projects $1.8 million per BTC by 2035, and Saylor’s Bitcoin model, which suggests $2.1 million per BTC by 2035—both arrive at relatively low triple-digit price targets.

两种模型 - 电力法模型，该模型在2035年预计为每BTC 180万美元，而Saylor的比特币模型则表明到2035年，每BTC 210万美元都达到了相对较低的三位数目标目标。

Both models assume diminishing returns as adoption increases, and they might be too conservative in that regard. In a world of accelerating technological adoption—and a growing realization of Bitcoin’s properties—price targets could overshoot these models significantly.

随着采用率的增加，这两种模型都假设收益降低，在这方面，它们可能太保守了。在加速技术采用以及对比特币特性越来越多的实现的世界中，价格目标可能会大大超过这些模型。

Two-Part Framework For Bitcoin Price Upside

比特币价格上涨的两部分框架

A second major catalyst for Bitcoin’s upside potential is the deflationary wave brought on by AI, automation, and robotics. These innovations rapidly increase productivity, lower costs, and make goods and services more abundant.

比特币上升潜力的第二个主要催化剂是AI，自动化和机器人技术带来的通缩波。这些创新迅速提高生产率，降低成本并使商品和服务更加丰富。

By 2035, global costs in several key sectors could undergo dramatic reductions. Adidas’ “Speedfactories” cut sneaker production from months to days. The scaling of 3D printing and AI-driven assembly lines could slash manufacturing costs by 10x.

到2035年，多个关键部门的全球成本可能会大大减少。阿迪达斯的“ Speedfactories”将运动鞋的产量从几个月到几天中。 3D打印和AI驱动的装配线的缩放可能会将制造成本削减10倍。

3D-printed homes already go up 50x faster at far lower costs. Advanced supply-chain automation, combined with AI logistics, could make quality housing 10x cheaper.

3D打印的房屋的成本较低，已经更快地上升了50倍。先进的供应链自动化，再加上AI物流，可以使高质量的外壳便宜10倍。