The Mustard Seed: A Thesis That Bitcoin (BTC) Will Reach $10 Million Per Coin by 2035

In a new publication titled The Mustard Seed, Joe Burnett—Director of Market Research at Unchained—outlines a thesis that envisions Bitcoin reaching $10 million per coin by 2035.

Unchained’s Joe Burnett envisions a scenario where Bitcoin (BTC) could reach $10 million per coin by 2035, fueled by two key transformations: the “great flow of capital” into an asset with absolute scarcity and the “acceleration of deflationary technology.”

This is the core thesis of The Mustard Seed, a new quarterly letter launched by Burnett, director of market research at the crypto investment firm. The publication takes aim at the prevailing macroeconomic commentary, which Burnett says tends to focus too narrowly on the next earnings report or the immediate price volatility.

In contrast, The Mustard Seed announces its mission clearly: “Unlike most financial commentary that fixates on the next quarter or next year, this letter takes the long view—identifying profound shifts before they become consensus.”

At the heart of Burnett’s outlook is the observation that the global financial system—comprising roughly $900 trillion in total assets—faces ongoing risks of “dilution or devaluation.” Bonds, currencies, equities, gold, and real estate each have expansionary or inflationary components that erode their store-of-value function.

As capital flowed into these assets over decades, it encountered a natural tendency toward dilution or devaluation. This is a critical point that several commentators have missed, Burnett says.

Capital is constantly searching for a lower potential energy state—much like water flows downhill and seeks the lowest elevation. Before Bitcoin, wealth had no true escape from dilution or devaluation. No matter where capital was deployed—in real estate, bonds, gold, or stocks—each category acted like an “open bounty,” rendering it easy for capital to flow toward and erode the asset’s real value.

But with Bitcoin’s arrival on the scene, and its 21-million-coin hard cap, this dynamic changed. Here, at least from an internal perspective, no one can dilute or devalue the asset. Supply is fixed; demand, if it grows, translates directly into price appreciation.

As Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) has noted in his “waterfall analogy,” capital naturally seeks the lowest potential energy state—just as water flows downhill. Before Bitcoin, wealth had no true escape from dilution or devaluation.

Capital flowed toward any asset class where it could be easily deployed without consequence. This encouraged institutions and individuals to constantly search for new assets that could be quickly added to portfolios.

And so, pre-Bitcoin, wealth managers could calmly distribute capital toward real estate, bonds, gold, or stocks. But each category had a mechanism by which its real value could be diluted or devalued over time.

As soon as Bitcoin became widely recognized, the game changed. It’s an asset that cannot be diluted or devalued from within.

This is the essence of why, over the course of a 10-year period, a large-scale migration of global capital into Bitcoin makes sense. It’s the narrative that The Mustard Seed will follow.

To illustrate Bitcoin’s unique supply dynamics, consider the halving cycles. In 2009, miners received 50 BTC per block—a sight to behold, like seeing Niagara Falls at full force.

Today, the reward dropped to 3.125 BTC, which feels more like glancing at the Falls after they’ve been halved several times and the flow is significantly reduced.

And in 2065, when newly minted Bitcoin supply will be minimal compared to the total volume, it will be like glancing at the Falls one last time after they’ve been reduced to a trickle.

Of course, several attempts to quantify Bitcoin’s global adoption rely on assumptions about how quickly institutions and individuals will move capital out of traditional markets and into the crypto domain.

Two models—the Power Law Model, which projects $1.8 million per BTC by 2035, and Saylor’s Bitcoin model, which suggests $2.1 million per BTC by 2035—both arrive at relatively low triple-digit price targets.

Both models assume diminishing returns as adoption increases, and they might be too conservative in that regard. In a world of accelerating technological adoption—and a growing realization of Bitcoin’s properties—price targets could overshoot these models significantly.

Two-Part Framework For Bitcoin Price Upside

A second major catalyst for Bitcoin’s upside potential is the deflationary wave brought on by AI, automation, and robotics. These innovations rapidly increase productivity, lower costs, and make goods and services more abundant.

By 2035, global costs in several key sectors could undergo dramatic reductions. Adidas’ “Speedfactories” cut sneaker production from months to days. The scaling of 3D printing and AI-driven assembly lines could slash manufacturing costs by 10x.

3D-printed homes already go up 50x faster at far lower costs. Advanced supply-chain automation, combined with AI logistics, could make quality housing 10x cheaper.