芥末種子：一篇論文，即比特幣（BTC）到2035年將達到每枚硬幣1000萬美元

在一份名為《芥末種子》的新出版物中，喬·伯內特（Unchained）市場研究的導演喬·伯內特（Joe Burnett）將一份論文視為設想到2035年每枚硬幣1000萬美元的論文。

Unchained’s Joe Burnett envisions a scenario where Bitcoin (BTC) could reach $10 million per coin by 2035, fueled by two key transformations: the “great flow of capital” into an asset with absolute scarcity and the “acceleration of deflationary technology.”

Unchained的喬·伯內特（Joe Burnett）設想了一個場景，到2035年，比特幣（BTC）可以達到每枚硬幣1000萬美元，這是有兩個關鍵轉變的推動力：“大量資本”成為具有絕對稀缺性和“加速技術加速的資產”。

This is the core thesis of The Mustard Seed, a new quarterly letter launched by Burnett, director of market research at the crypto investment firm. The publication takes aim at the prevailing macroeconomic commentary, which Burnett says tends to focus too narrowly on the next earnings report or the immediate price volatility.

這是Crypto投資公司市場研究總監Burnett發起的芥末種子的核心論文。該出版物針對現行的宏觀經濟評論，伯內特（Burnett）表示，這往往會過於狹窄地關注下一個收益報告或即時價格波動。

In contrast, The Mustard Seed announces its mission clearly: “Unlike most financial commentary that fixates on the next quarter or next year, this letter takes the long view—identifying profound shifts before they become consensus.”

相比之下，芥末種子清楚地宣布了其使命：“與下一季度或明年固定的大多數財務評論不同，這封信持續了很長的看法 - 在達成共識之前就識別了深刻的轉變。”

At the heart of Burnett’s outlook is the observation that the global financial system—comprising roughly $900 trillion in total assets—faces ongoing risks of “dilution or devaluation.” Bonds, currencies, equities, gold, and real estate each have expansionary or inflationary components that erode their store-of-value function.

伯內特（Burnett）前景的核心是觀察到，全球金融體系（總資產總計約為900萬億美元）持續存在“稀釋或貶值”的風險。債券，貨幣，股票，黃金和房地產具有擴展或通貨膨脹組成部分，侵蝕了其價值儲存功能。

As capital flowed into these assets over decades, it encountered a natural tendency toward dilution or devaluation. This is a critical point that several commentators have missed, Burnett says.

隨著資本數十年來流入這些資產，它遇到了稀釋或貶值的自然傾向。伯內特說，這是幾位評論員錯過的關鍵點。

Capital is constantly searching for a lower potential energy state—much like water flows downhill and seeks the lowest elevation. Before Bitcoin, wealth had no true escape from dilution or devaluation. No matter where capital was deployed—in real estate, bonds, gold, or stocks—each category acted like an “open bounty,” rendering it easy for capital to flow toward and erode the asset’s real value.

資本一直在尋找較低的勢能狀態，就像水流下坡並尋求最低海拔。在比特幣之前，財富並沒有真正擺脫稀釋或貶值。不管在房地產，債券，黃金或股票中部署資本的何處，都像“開放賞金”一樣，使資本容易流向和侵蝕資產的實際價值。

But with Bitcoin’s arrival on the scene, and its 21-million-coin hard cap, this dynamic changed. Here, at least from an internal perspective, no one can dilute or devalue the asset. Supply is fixed; demand, if it grows, translates directly into price appreciation.

但是，隨著比特幣的到來，現場及其2,100萬克膠蓋，這種動態發生了變化。在這裡，至少從內部角度來看，沒有人能稀釋或貶值資產。供應是固定的；需求，如果增長，則直接轉化為價格升值。

As Michael Saylor of MicroStrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) has noted in his “waterfall analogy,” capital naturally seeks the lowest potential energy state—just as water flows downhill. Before Bitcoin, wealth had no true escape from dilution or devaluation.

正如MicroStrategy的Michael Saylor（NASDAQ：MSTR）在他的“瀑布類比”中指出的那樣，首都自然會尋求最低的勢能狀態，只是水流下坡。在比特幣之前，財富並沒有真正擺脫稀釋或貶值。

Capital flowed toward any asset class where it could be easily deployed without consequence. This encouraged institutions and individuals to constantly search for new assets that could be quickly added to portfolios.

資本流向任何資產類別，可以輕鬆地部署而不會產生影響。這鼓勵機構和個人不斷尋找可以快速添加到投資組合的新資產。

And so, pre-Bitcoin, wealth managers could calmly distribute capital toward real estate, bonds, gold, or stocks. But each category had a mechanism by which its real value could be diluted or devalued over time.

因此，預幣，財富管理人員可以平靜地向房地產，債券，黃金或股票分配資本。但是每個類別都有一種機制，隨著時間的推移，其實際價值可以稀釋或貶值。

As soon as Bitcoin became widely recognized, the game changed. It’s an asset that cannot be diluted or devalued from within.

一旦比特幣被廣泛認可，遊戲就會改變。這是一種無法從內部稀釋或貶值的資產。

This is the essence of why, over the course of a 10-year period, a large-scale migration of global capital into Bitcoin makes sense. It’s the narrative that The Mustard Seed will follow.

這就是為什麼在10年的過程中，全球資本向比特幣進行大規模遷移是有意義的。這是芥末種子將跟隨的敘述。

To illustrate Bitcoin’s unique supply dynamics, consider the halving cycles. In 2009, miners received 50 BTC per block—a sight to behold, like seeing Niagara Falls at full force.

為了說明比特幣的獨特供應動態，請考慮減半週期。 2009年，礦工每塊獲得50 BTC，這是一個值得一看的視線，就像看到尼亞加拉瀑布全力以赴一樣。

Today, the reward dropped to 3.125 BTC, which feels more like glancing at the Falls after they’ve been halved several times and the flow is significantly reduced.

如今，獎勵下降到3.125 BTC，感覺更像是在跌倒了幾次之後瞥了一眼瀑布，並且流量大大減少了。

And in 2065, when newly minted Bitcoin supply will be minimal compared to the total volume, it will be like glancing at the Falls one last time after they’ve been reduced to a trickle.

在2065年，與總銷量相比，新鑄造的比特幣供應將是最小的，就像將它們簡化為trock流之後最後一次瞥了一眼瀑布一樣。

Of course, several attempts to quantify Bitcoin’s global adoption rely on assumptions about how quickly institutions and individuals will move capital out of traditional markets and into the crypto domain.

當然，量化比特幣全球採用的幾項嘗試取決於關於機構和個人將資本從傳統市場移出並進入加密貨幣領域的速度的假設。

Two models—the Power Law Model, which projects $1.8 million per BTC by 2035, and Saylor’s Bitcoin model, which suggests $2.1 million per BTC by 2035—both arrive at relatively low triple-digit price targets.

兩種模型 - 電力法模型，該模型在2035年預計為每BTC 180萬美元，而Saylor的比特幣模型則表明到2035年，每BTC 210萬美元都達到了相對較低的三位數目標目標。

Both models assume diminishing returns as adoption increases, and they might be too conservative in that regard. In a world of accelerating technological adoption—and a growing realization of Bitcoin’s properties—price targets could overshoot these models significantly.

隨著採用率的增加，這兩種模型都假設收益降低，在這方面，它們可能太保守了。在加速技術採用以及對比特幣特性越來越多的實現的世界中，價格目標可能會大大超過這些模型。

Two-Part Framework For Bitcoin Price Upside

比特幣價格上漲的兩部分框架

A second major catalyst for Bitcoin’s upside potential is the deflationary wave brought on by AI, automation, and robotics. These innovations rapidly increase productivity, lower costs, and make goods and services more abundant.

比特幣上升潛力的第二個主要催化劑是AI，自動化和機器人技術帶來的通縮波。這些創新迅速提高生產率，降低成本並使商品和服務更加豐富。

By 2035, global costs in several key sectors could undergo dramatic reductions. Adidas’ “Speedfactories” cut sneaker production from months to days. The scaling of 3D printing and AI-driven assembly lines could slash manufacturing costs by 10x.

到2035年，多個關鍵部門的全球成本可能會大大減少。阿迪達斯的“ Speedfactories”將運動鞋的產量從幾個月到幾天中。 3D打印和AI驅動的裝配線的縮放可能會將製造成本削減10倍。

3D-printed homes already go up 50x faster at far lower costs. Advanced supply-chain automation, combined with AI logistics, could make quality housing 10x cheaper.

3D打印的房屋的成本較低，已經更快地上升了50倍。先進的供應鏈自動化，再加上AI物流，可以使高質量的外殼便宜10倍。