摩根溪资本首席执行官预测比特币将上涨至六位数

摩根溪资本（Morgan Creek Capital）首席执行官马克·尤斯科（Mark Yusko）预测，由于减半事件和网络效应增强，比特币（BTC）将在未来几个月飙升至六位数。 Yusko 根据梅特卡夫定律模型估计公允价值为 50,000 美元，由于区块奖励减少，减半后该价值可能升至 100,000 美元。他进一步预计，随着 FOMO 情绪将价格推至其公允价值的两倍，预计牛市周期的顶峰预计在减半后约九个月后，价格可能飙升至 150,000 美元。

Morgan Creek Capital CEO Predicts Bitcoin's Surge to Six Figures

摩根溪资本首席执行官预测比特币将飙升至六位数

New York, New York - Mark Yusko, the co-founder and CEO of Morgan Creek Capital, has reiterated his bullish prediction that Bitcoin (BTC) will ascend to a six-figure valuation within the forthcoming months.

纽约，摩根溪资本 (Morgan Creek Capital) 联合创始人兼首席执行官马克·尤斯科 (Mark Yusko) 重申了他的乐观预测，即比特币 (BTC) 的估值将在未来几个月内升至六位数。

In a recent CNBC interview, Yusko asserted that Bitcoin could potentially triple in value from its current fair value estimate or double from its post-halving fair value. The seasoned hedge fund manager elaborated that Bitcoin's fair value is determined by the number of users and miners, essentially its network effects.

在最近的 CNBC 采访中，尤斯科断言，比特币的价值可能会比当前的公允价值估计增加三倍，或者在减半后的公允价值增加一倍。这位经验丰富的对冲基金经理解释说，比特币的公允价值是由用户和矿工的数量决定的，本质上是由其网络效应决定的。

"We evaluate today's fair value using the Metcalfe's Law model, which yields approximately $50,000," explained Yusko. "The halving event, occurring in approximately three weeks, reduces block rewards, the remuneration provided to miners for securing the network. Historically, such reductions have led to price increases and an elevation in fair value, potentially propelling Bitcoin to $100,000."

“我们使用梅特卡夫定律模型评估今天的公允价值，该模型的收益约为 50,000 美元，”Yusko 解释道。 “减半事件发生在大约三周内，减少了区块奖励，即为保护网络安全而向矿工提供的报酬。从历史上看，这种减少导致了价格上涨和公允价值上升，有可能将比特币推升至 10 万美元。”

However, Yusko acknowledged that the current market dynamics differ slightly. "Ordinarily, the halving primarily affects block rewards, but this time, transaction fees derived from ordinals and inscriptions are also a factor," he said. "Assuming a fair value of $75,000 post-halving, the surge in investor interest and FOMO (fear of missing out) could drive the price to twice its fair value, as has been observed in previous cycles."

然而，尤斯科承认，当前的市场动态略有不同。 “通常情况下，减半主要影响区块奖励，但这一次，序数和铭文产生的交易费用也是一个因素，”他说。 “假设减半后的公允价值为 75,000 美元，投资者兴趣的激增和 FOMO（害怕错过机会）可能会将价格推至公允价值的两倍，正如在之前的周期中观察到的那样。”

"In the previous cycle, with a fair value of $30,000, Bitcoin reached a peak of $69,000," Yusko recalled. "Given the reduced leverage in the current market, I anticipate a similar multiple, resulting in a potential peak of $150,000."

“在上一个周期，比特币的公允价值为 30,000 美元，达到了 69,000 美元的峰值，”Yusko 回忆道。 “鉴于当前市场杠杆率降低，我预计会出现类似的倍数，从而可能达到 15 万美元的峰值。”

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $70,882. Yusko projected that the peak of the ensuing bull cycle would occur approximately nine months after the halving.

截至撰写本文时，比特币交易价格为 70,882 美元。尤斯科预计，接下来的牛市周期的顶峰将在减半后大约九个月出现。

"The halving event typically triggers a surge in demand, particularly from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and other investors," Yusko said. "Concurrently, the supply of new coins diminishes, leading to an imbalance between supply and demand, which tends to drive price increases. The price trajectory becomes increasingly steep toward the end of the year, with the historical peak occurring around nine months post-halving, typically coinciding with the Thanksgiving to Christmas period."

尤斯科表示：“减半事件通常会引发需求激增，尤其是来自交易所交易基金（ETF）和其他投资者的需求。” “同时，新币的供应量减少，导致供需失衡，这往往会推动价格上涨。到年底，价格轨迹变得越来越陡峭，历史峰值出现在减半后九个月左右，通常与感恩节到圣诞节期间同时发生。”