摩根溪資本執行長預測比特幣將上漲至六位數

摩根溪資本（Morgan Creek Capital）執行長馬克尤斯科（Mark Yusko）預測，由於減半事件和網路效應增強，比特幣（BTC）將在未來幾個月飆升至六位數。 Yusko 根據梅特卡夫定律模型估計公允價值為 50,000 美元，由於區塊獎勵減少，減半後該價值可能升至 100,000 美元。他進一步預計，隨著 FOMO 情緒將價格推至其公允價值的兩倍，預計牛市週期的頂峰預計在減半後約九個月後，價格可能飆升至 15 萬美元。

Morgan Creek Capital CEO Predicts Bitcoin's Surge to Six Figures

摩根溪資本執行長預測比特幣將飆升至六位數

New York, New York - Mark Yusko, the co-founder and CEO of Morgan Creek Capital, has reiterated his bullish prediction that Bitcoin (BTC) will ascend to a six-figure valuation within the forthcoming months.

紐約，摩根溪資本(Morgan Creek Capital) 聯合創始人兼首席執行官馬克·尤斯科(Mark Yusko) 重申了他的樂觀預測，即比特幣(BTC) 的估值將在未來幾個月內升至六位數。

In a recent CNBC interview, Yusko asserted that Bitcoin could potentially triple in value from its current fair value estimate or double from its post-halving fair value. The seasoned hedge fund manager elaborated that Bitcoin's fair value is determined by the number of users and miners, essentially its network effects.

在最近的 CNBC 採訪中，尤斯科斷言，比特幣的價值可能會比當前的公允價值估計增加三倍，或者在減半後的公允價值增加一倍。這位經驗豐富的對沖基金經理解釋說，比特幣的公允價值是由用戶和礦工的數量決定的，本質上是由其網路效應決定的。

"We evaluate today's fair value using the Metcalfe's Law model, which yields approximately $50,000," explained Yusko. "The halving event, occurring in approximately three weeks, reduces block rewards, the remuneration provided to miners for securing the network. Historically, such reductions have led to price increases and an elevation in fair value, potentially propelling Bitcoin to $100,000."

「我們使用梅特卡夫定律模型評估今天的公允價值，該模型的收益約為 50,000 美元，」Yusko 解釋道。 「減半事件發生在大約三週內，減少了區塊獎勵，即為保護網路安全而向礦工提供的報酬。從歷史上看，這種減少導致了價格上漲和公允價值上升，有可能將比特幣推升至10 萬美元。”

However, Yusko acknowledged that the current market dynamics differ slightly. "Ordinarily, the halving primarily affects block rewards, but this time, transaction fees derived from ordinals and inscriptions are also a factor," he said. "Assuming a fair value of $75,000 post-halving, the surge in investor interest and FOMO (fear of missing out) could drive the price to twice its fair value, as has been observed in previous cycles."

然而，尤斯科承認，目前的市場動態略有不同。 「通常情況下，減半主要影響區塊獎勵，但這一次，序數和銘文產生的交易費用也是一個因素，」他說。 “假設減半後的公允價值為 75,000 美元，投資者興趣的激增和 FOMO（害怕錯過機會）可能會將價格推至公允價值的兩倍，正如在之前的周期中觀察到的那樣。”

"In the previous cycle, with a fair value of $30,000, Bitcoin reached a peak of $69,000," Yusko recalled. "Given the reduced leverage in the current market, I anticipate a similar multiple, resulting in a potential peak of $150,000."

「在上一個週期，比特幣的公允價值為 30,000 美元，達到了 69,000 美元的峰值，」Yusko 回憶道。 “鑑於當前市場槓桿率降低，我預計會出現類似的倍數，可能會達到 15 萬美元的峰值。”

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $70,882. Yusko projected that the peak of the ensuing bull cycle would occur approximately nine months after the halving.

截至撰寫本文時，比特幣交易價格為 70,882 美元。尤斯科預計，接下來的牛市週期的頂峰將在減半後大約九個月出現。

"The halving event typically triggers a surge in demand, particularly from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and other investors," Yusko said. "Concurrently, the supply of new coins diminishes, leading to an imbalance between supply and demand, which tends to drive price increases. The price trajectory becomes increasingly steep toward the end of the year, with the historical peak occurring around nine months post-halving, typically coinciding with the Thanksgiving to Christmas period."

尤斯科表示：“減半事件通常會引發需求激增，尤其是來自交易所交易基金（ETF）和其他投資者的需求。” 「同時，新幣的供應量減少，導致供需失衡，這往往會推動價格上漲。到年底，價格軌跡變得越來越陡峭，歷史高峰出現在減半後九個月左右，通常與感恩節到聖誕節期間同時發生。”