Mark Yusko 预测比特币将创下新高，减半后将突破 75,000 美元

摩根溪资本管理公司创始人兼首席执行官 Mark Yusko 最近在接受 CNBC 采访时分享了他对比特币的看好前景。 Yusko 预计，在区块奖励减少、投资者兴趣增加和网络效应的推动下，减半后比特币的“公允价值”将飙升至 75,000 美元。他进一步预测，在采用曲线和梅特卡夫定律的支持下，到 2025 年，比特币的价格可能会达到 150,000 美元，该定律认为网络的价值与其用户的平方成正比。

Bitcoin's Trajectory: Insights from Mark Yusko, Pioneer in the Cryptosphere

比特币的轨迹：加密领域先驱 Mark Yusko 的见解

In the rapidly evolving realm of digital assets, Bitcoin has emerged as a trailblazer, mesmerizing investors with its potential for transformative growth. Mark Yusko, the visionary founder and CEO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, has recently shared his profound insights into Bitcoin's future trajectory, painting a compelling picture of a currency poised to shatter previous price barriers.

在快速发展的数字资产领域，比特币已成为开拓者，以其变革性增长的潜力令投资者着迷。摩根溪资本管理公司 (Morgan Creek Capital Management) 富有远见的创始人兼首席执行官马克·尤斯科 (Mark Yusko) 最近分享了他对比特币未来发展轨迹的深刻见解，描绘了一幅即将打破先前价格壁垒的货币的引人注目的图景。

A Convergence of Factors Fueling Bitcoin's Ascent

推动比特币上涨的多种因素

Yusko's bullish outlook is meticulously crafted upon a solid foundation of factors that are expected to propel Bitcoin's price to unprecedented heights. At the epicenter of this anticipated surge lies the upcoming halving event, a pivotal moment in Bitcoin's lifecycle that will occur in just three weeks. This event will witness a 50% reduction in block rewards for miners, a phenomenon that has historically sparked significant price rallies.

尤斯科的看涨前景是在预计将推动比特币价格升至前所未有的高度的因素的坚实基础上精心制定的。即将到来的减半事件是这一预期飙升的中心，这是比特币生命周期的关键时刻，将在短短三周内发生。此次事件将使矿工的区块奖励减少 50%，这种现象在历史上曾引发过价格大幅上涨。

Expounding on the mechanics behind this phenomenon, Yusko emphasized that as block rewards diminish, the price of Bitcoin must rise to ensure profitability for miners. This symbiotic relationship, coupled with escalating investor interest and the fear of missing out (FOMO), is anticipated to drive Bitcoin's price to uncharted territories.

在阐述这一现象背后的机制时，尤斯科强调，随着区块奖励的减少，比特币的价格必须上涨，以确保矿工的盈利能力。这种共生关系，加上投资者兴趣的不断升级和对错过机会的恐惧（FOMO），预计将推动比特币的价格上涨到未知的领域。

Halving as a Catalyst for Price Appreciation

减半成为价格升值的催化剂

The halving event is not merely a technical adjustment; it's a catalyst for supply-driven price appreciation. By reducing the issuance of new Bitcoins, the halving creates a scarcity premium that elevates the asset's value proposition. Yusko astutely points out that this scarcity, amplified by the growing demand for Bitcoin, will likely ignite a positive feedback loop, further propelling the price upward.

减半事件不仅仅是技术调整；它是供应驱动的价格上涨的催化剂。通过减少新比特币的发行，减半产生了稀缺性溢价，从而提升了资产的价值主张。尤斯科敏锐地指出，这种稀缺性，加上比特币需求不断增长，可能会引发正反馈循环，进一步推动价格上涨。

Furthermore, Yusko's optimism extends beyond the immediate effects of the halving. He skillfully draws parallels to historical market cycles, positing that Bitcoin's "fair value" could soar to an astounding $75,000 post-halving. This projection is anchored in a convergence of factors, including investor sentiment, network utility, and speculative fervor.

此外，尤斯科的乐观情绪超出了减半的直接影响。他巧妙地将历史市场周期进行了类比，认为比特币的“公允价值”可能在减半后飙升至令人震惊的 75,000 美元。这一预测基于多种因素，包括投资者情绪、网络效用和投机热情。

Fair Value Propelled by Network Effects

网络效应推动的公允价值

Yusko's forecast is not rooted in mere conjecture; it's substantiated by the underlying dynamics of Bitcoin's network. Leveraging Metcalfe's law, a mathematical principle that posits that the value of a network is proportional to the square of its users, Yusko paints a compelling picture of exponential growth driven by network effects.

尤斯科的预测并非仅仅出于猜测；而是基于猜测。比特币网络的基本动态证实了这一点。尤斯科利用梅特卡夫定律这一数学原理，认为网络的价值与其用户的平方成正比，描绘了一幅由网络效应驱动的指数增长的引人注目的图景。

Utilizing this model, Yusko conservatively estimates Bitcoin's current "fair value" at $50,000. However, he anticipates this figure to skyrocket post-halving, reaching an impressive $75,000. But Yusko doesn't stop there. He predicts that this cycle will be even more remarkable than previous ones, with Bitcoin potentially reaching a staggering $150,000 by 2025.

利用这个模型，Yusko 保守估计比特币当前的“公允价值”为 50,000 美元。然而，他预计这一数字将在减半后飙升，达到令人印象深刻的 75,000 美元。但尤斯科并没有就此止步。他预测，这一周期将比之前的周期更加引人注目，到 2025 年，比特币的价格可能会达到惊人的 15 万美元。

A Sustainable Ascent Fueled by Evolving Transaction Fees

交易费用不断变化推动可持续上升

Reflecting on historical trends, Yusko observed that during the last cycle, Bitcoin's fair value reached $30,000, eventually soaring to $69,000. This time around, Yusko believes the absence of excessive leverage in the market will contribute to a more sustainable ascent, potentially doubling Bitcoin's price.

回顾历史趋势，Yusko 观察到，在上一个周期中，比特币的公允价值达到了 30,000 美元，最终飙升至 69,000 美元。这一次，尤斯科认为，市场上没有过度杠杆将有助于更可持续的上涨，有可能使比特币的价格翻倍。

Yusko also sheds light on a novel factor that could further bolster Bitcoin's value proposition: transaction fees generated by Ordinals and Inscriptions. These emerging use cases create an additional revenue stream for miners, enhancing the overall economic viability of the Bitcoin network.

Yusko 还揭示了一个可以进一步增强比特币价值主张的新因素：序号和铭文产生的交易费用。这些新兴用例为矿工创造了额外的收入来源，增强了比特币网络的整体经济可行性。

Addressing Skepticism and Embracing the Future

消除怀疑，拥抱未来

While some skeptics may liken Bitcoin's meteoric rise to "Tulipmania," Yusko remains undeterred, emphasizing the fundamental principles underpinning the cryptocurrency's utility and scarcity. He astutely dismisses such comparisons, highlighting Bitcoin's underlying value as a decentralized, immutable store of value.

尽管一些怀疑论者可能将比特币的迅速崛起比作“郁金香狂热”，但尤斯科仍然没有被吓倒，他强调了支撑加密货币实用性和稀缺性的基本原则。他敏锐地驳斥了这种比较，强调比特币作为一种去中心化、不可变的价值储存手段的潜在价值。

As the digital asset ecosystem continues to mature and attract mainstream adoption, the prospect of Bitcoin reaching six figures no longer seems far-fetched. Institutional investors are increasingly recognizing the merits of cryptocurrencies as a portfolio diversification strategy, providing further impetus for Bitcoin to solidify its position as a formidable asset class.

随着数字资产生态系统不断成熟并吸引主流采用，比特币达到六位数的前景似乎不再遥不可及。机构投资者越来越认识到加密货币作为投资组合多元化策略的优点，这为比特币巩固其作为强大资产类别的地位提供了进一步的动力。

As the countdown to the halving event progresses, anticipation is palpable among investors who eagerly await the outcome. Will Yusko's bold prediction come to fruition, catapulting Bitcoin to unprecedented heights? Only time will tell, but one thing is certain: the era of digital currencies is far from over, and Bitcoin remains at the forefront of this financial revolution.

随着减半倒计时的进行，热切等待结果的投资者的期待之情溢于言表。 Yusko 的大胆预测会实现，将比特币推向前所未有的高度吗？只有时间才能证明一切，但有一件事是确定的：数字货币时代还远未结束，比特币仍然处于这场金融革命的最前沿。