Mark Yusko 預測比特幣將創下新高，減半後將突破 75,000 美元

摩根溪資本管理公司創始人兼執行長 Mark Yusko 最近在接受 CNBC 採訪時分享了他對比特幣的看好前景。 Yusko 預計，在區塊獎勵減少、投資者興趣增加和網路效應的推動下，減半後比特幣的「公允價值」將飆升至 75,000 美元。他進一步預測，在採用曲線和梅特卡夫定律的支持下，到 2025 年，比特幣的價格可能會達到 15 萬美元，該定律認為網路的價值與其用戶的平方成正比。

Bitcoin's Trajectory: Insights from Mark Yusko, Pioneer in the Cryptosphere

比特幣的軌跡：加密領域先驅 Mark Yusko 的見解

In the rapidly evolving realm of digital assets, Bitcoin has emerged as a trailblazer, mesmerizing investors with its potential for transformative growth. Mark Yusko, the visionary founder and CEO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, has recently shared his profound insights into Bitcoin's future trajectory, painting a compelling picture of a currency poised to shatter previous price barriers.

在快速發展的數位資產領域，比特幣已成為開拓者，以其變革性成長的潛力令投資者著迷。摩根溪資本管理公司(Morgan Creek Capital Management) 富有遠見的創始人兼首席執行官馬克·尤斯科(Mark Yusko) 最近分享了他對比特幣未來發展軌蹟的深刻見解，描繪了一幅即將打破先前價格壁壘的貨幣的引人注目的圖像。

A Convergence of Factors Fueling Bitcoin's Ascent

推動比特幣上漲的多種因素

Yusko's bullish outlook is meticulously crafted upon a solid foundation of factors that are expected to propel Bitcoin's price to unprecedented heights. At the epicenter of this anticipated surge lies the upcoming halving event, a pivotal moment in Bitcoin's lifecycle that will occur in just three weeks. This event will witness a 50% reduction in block rewards for miners, a phenomenon that has historically sparked significant price rallies.

尤斯科的看漲前景是在預計將推動比特幣價格升至前所未有的高度的因素的堅實基礎上精心製定的。即將到來的減半事件是這一預期飆升的中心，這是比特幣生命週期的關鍵時刻，將在短短三週內發生。這次事件將使礦工的區塊獎勵減少 50%，這種現像在歷史上曾引發價格大幅上漲。

Expounding on the mechanics behind this phenomenon, Yusko emphasized that as block rewards diminish, the price of Bitcoin must rise to ensure profitability for miners. This symbiotic relationship, coupled with escalating investor interest and the fear of missing out (FOMO), is anticipated to drive Bitcoin's price to uncharted territories.

在闡述這一現象背後的機制時，尤斯科強調，隨著區塊獎勵的減少，比特幣的價格必須上漲，以確保礦工的獲利能力。這種共生關係，加上投資者興趣的不斷升級和對錯過機會的恐懼（FOMO），預計將推動比特幣的價格上漲到未知的領域。

Halving as a Catalyst for Price Appreciation

減半成為價格升值的催化劑

The halving event is not merely a technical adjustment; it's a catalyst for supply-driven price appreciation. By reducing the issuance of new Bitcoins, the halving creates a scarcity premium that elevates the asset's value proposition. Yusko astutely points out that this scarcity, amplified by the growing demand for Bitcoin, will likely ignite a positive feedback loop, further propelling the price upward.

減半事件不僅僅是技術調整；它是供應驅動的價格上漲的催化劑。透過減少新比特幣的發行，減半產生了稀缺性溢價，從而提升了資產的價值主張。尤斯科敏銳地指出，這種稀缺性，加上比特幣需求不斷增長，可能會引發正向回饋循環，進一步推動價格上漲。

Furthermore, Yusko's optimism extends beyond the immediate effects of the halving. He skillfully draws parallels to historical market cycles, positing that Bitcoin's "fair value" could soar to an astounding $75,000 post-halving. This projection is anchored in a convergence of factors, including investor sentiment, network utility, and speculative fervor.

此外，尤斯科的樂觀情緒超越了減半的直接影響。他巧妙地將歷史市場週期進行了類比，認為比特幣的「公允價值」可能在減半後飆升至令人震驚的 75,000 美元。這項預測基於多種因素，包括投資者情緒、網路效用和投機熱情。

Fair Value Propelled by Network Effects

網路效應所推動的公允價值

Yusko's forecast is not rooted in mere conjecture; it's substantiated by the underlying dynamics of Bitcoin's network. Leveraging Metcalfe's law, a mathematical principle that posits that the value of a network is proportional to the square of its users, Yusko paints a compelling picture of exponential growth driven by network effects.

尤斯科的預測並非僅僅出於猜測；而是基於猜測。比特幣網路的基本動態證實了這一點。尤斯科利用梅特卡夫定律這一數學原理，認為網路的價值與其用戶的平方成正比，描繪了一幅由網路效應驅動的指數增長的引人注目的圖景。

Utilizing this model, Yusko conservatively estimates Bitcoin's current "fair value" at $50,000. However, he anticipates this figure to skyrocket post-halving, reaching an impressive $75,000. But Yusko doesn't stop there. He predicts that this cycle will be even more remarkable than previous ones, with Bitcoin potentially reaching a staggering $150,000 by 2025.

利用這個模型，Yusko 保守估計比特幣目前的「公允價值」為 5 萬美元。然而，他預計這一數字將在減半後飆升，達到令人印象深刻的 75,000 美元。但尤斯科並沒有就此止步。他預測，這一週期將比之前的周期更加引人注目，到 2025 年，比特幣的價格可能會達到驚人的 15 萬美元。

A Sustainable Ascent Fueled by Evolving Transaction Fees

交易費用不斷變化推動永續上升

Reflecting on historical trends, Yusko observed that during the last cycle, Bitcoin's fair value reached $30,000, eventually soaring to $69,000. This time around, Yusko believes the absence of excessive leverage in the market will contribute to a more sustainable ascent, potentially doubling Bitcoin's price.

回顧歷史趨勢，Yusko 觀察到，在上一個週期中，比特幣的公允價值達到了 30,000 美元，最終飆升至 69,000 美元。這一次，尤斯科認為，市場上沒有過度槓桿將有助於更永續的上漲，有可能使比特幣的價格翻倍。

Yusko also sheds light on a novel factor that could further bolster Bitcoin's value proposition: transaction fees generated by Ordinals and Inscriptions. These emerging use cases create an additional revenue stream for miners, enhancing the overall economic viability of the Bitcoin network.

Yusko 也揭示了一個可以進一步增強比特幣價值主張的新因素：序號和銘文產生的交易費用。這些新興用例為礦工創造了額外的收入來源，增強了比特幣網路的整體經濟可行性。

Addressing Skepticism and Embracing the Future

消除懷疑，擁抱未來

While some skeptics may liken Bitcoin's meteoric rise to "Tulipmania," Yusko remains undeterred, emphasizing the fundamental principles underpinning the cryptocurrency's utility and scarcity. He astutely dismisses such comparisons, highlighting Bitcoin's underlying value as a decentralized, immutable store of value.

儘管一些懷疑論者可能將比特幣的迅速崛起比作“鬱金香狂熱”，但尤斯科仍然沒有被嚇倒，他強調了支撐加密貨幣實用性和稀缺性的基本原則。他敏銳地駁斥了這種比較，強調比特幣作為一種去中心化、不可變的價值儲存手段的潛在價值。

As the digital asset ecosystem continues to mature and attract mainstream adoption, the prospect of Bitcoin reaching six figures no longer seems far-fetched. Institutional investors are increasingly recognizing the merits of cryptocurrencies as a portfolio diversification strategy, providing further impetus for Bitcoin to solidify its position as a formidable asset class.

隨著數位資產生態系統不斷成熟並吸引主流採用，比特幣達到六位數的前景似乎不再遙不可及。機構投資者越來越認識到加密貨幣作為投資組合多元化策略的優點，這為比特幣鞏固其作為強大資產類別的地位提供了進一步的動力。

As the countdown to the halving event progresses, anticipation is palpable among investors who eagerly await the outcome. Will Yusko's bold prediction come to fruition, catapulting Bitcoin to unprecedented heights? Only time will tell, but one thing is certain: the era of digital currencies is far from over, and Bitcoin remains at the forefront of this financial revolution.

隨著減半倒數的進行，熱切等待結果的投資者的期待之情溢於言表。 Yusko 的大膽預測會實現，將比特幣推向前所未有的高度嗎？只有時間才能證明一切，但有一件事是確定的：數位貨幣時代還遠未結束，比特幣仍然處於這場金融革命的最前沿。