“宏观/加密货币之夏”会持续还是会消失？

著名金融专家拉乌尔·帕尔 (Raoul Pal) 介绍了“宏观/加密货币夏季”的概念，这是金融和加密货币交织的世界中的一个重要时期。这种现象与全球经济流动性的潮起潮落同时发生，预计将在 2022 年下半年出现，对科技股和加密货币市场产生深远影响。

Is the 'Macro/Crypto Summer' Here to Stay?

“宏观/加密货币夏天”会持续下去吗？

Amidst the cacophony of financial chatter on X, the digital reincarnation of Twitter, Raoul Pal, the oracle of high-stakes trading, dropped a bombshell: the dawn of the "Macro/Crypto Summer."

在 X 上喧嚣的金融讨论中，Twitter 的数字化转世，高风险交易的预言家拉乌尔·帕尔 (Raoul Pal) 投下了一个重磅炸弹：“宏观/加密货币之夏”的黎明。

Pal, the mastermind behind Global Macro Investor and Real Vision, believes this phenomenon is more than just a passing fad. It's a pivotal moment in the intertwined worlds of finance and crypto, deeply ingrained in the cyclical dance of the global economy.

Global Macro Investor 和 Real Vision 的幕后策划者帕尔认为，这种现象不仅仅是一时的时尚。这是金融和加密世界相互交织的关键时刻，在全球经济的周期性舞蹈中根深蒂固。

What Triggers the 'Macro Summer'?

是什么触发了“宏观夏季”？

Think of the "Macro Summer" as a stage in a meticulously choreographed "Everything Code" cycle. It typically emerges about ten months after the Financial Conditions Index, a measure of liquidity and debt refinancing, takes a dive. Coincidentally, this coincides with the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) index hitting its low point, signaling an uptick in GDP growth.

将“宏观夏季”视为精心设计的“一切代码”周期中的一个阶段。它通常在衡量流动性和债务再融资的金融状况指数下跌约十个月后出现。巧合的是，这恰逢供应管理协会 (ISM) 指数触及低点，表明 GDP 增长加速。

Liquidity: The Driving Force

流动性：驱动力

The ebb and flow of liquidity plays a crucial role in this three-and-a-half-year ISM business cycle. Pal predicts a surge in liquidity in the second half of 2022, setting the stage for the impending Macro Summer and Fall seasons.

流动性的涨落在这个三年半的ISM商业周期中发挥着至关重要的作用。帕尔预测 2022 年下半年流动性将激增，为即将到来的宏观夏季和秋季奠定基础。

Crypto's Golden Years

加密货币的黄金岁月

Tech stocks tend to thrive during liquidity injections, but Pal sees even greater potential in the crypto markets. He points to historical data showing impressive growth in Bitcoin and Ethereum during previous Macro Summer and Fall seasons. Bitcoin, for instance, soared "2012/2013: +146x, 2016/2017: +30x, 2020/2021: +8x...," while Ethereum skyrocketed "2016/2017: +1,770x, 2020/2021: +41x."

科技股往往会在流动性注入期间蓬勃发展，但帕尔认为加密市场具有更大的潜力。他指出，历史数据显示，在之前的宏观夏季和秋季期间，比特币和以太坊出现了令人印象深刻的增长。例如，比特币飙升“2012/2013：+146x，2016/2017：+30x，2020/2021：+8x......”，而以太坊则飙升“2016/2017：+1,770x，2020/2021：+41x” ”。

The Halving Effect

减半效应

Pal also draws a connection between these cycles and Bitcoin's halving events, which occur every four years. Crypto Summer usually hits its stride after a halving, linking crypto's fortunes to broader financial trends.

帕尔还将这些周期与每四年发生一次的比特币减半事件联系起来。加密之夏通常会在减半后大步迈进，将加密货币的命运与更广泛的金融趋势联系起来。

Liquidity Expansion: Around the Globe

流动性扩张：全球范围内

Looking ahead, Pal predicts continued liquidity expansion until at least the end of 2025. He believes global financial mechanisms, such as potential money printing by the U.S. to offset surging interest payments and adjustments in Fed Net Liquidity and Treasury General Account (TGA), will contribute to this liquidity flood.

展望未来，帕尔预计流动性将持续扩张，至少持续到 2025 年底。他认为，全球金融机制，例如美国可能印钞以抵消激增的利息支付以及美联储净流动性和财政部普通账户 (TGA) 的调整，将助长了这种流动性泛滥。

Pal is confident that the U.S. won't be the only player pumping up the global liquidity. He speculates that "China, the EU, Japan, or maybe a bit of all" could drive this expansion.

帕尔相信美国不会是唯一增加全球流动性的国家。他推测“中国、欧盟、日本，或者也许是其中一些”可能会推动这种扩张。

Investment Strategy: Embrace Patience

投资策略：保持耐心

In anticipation of the burgeoning Macro Summer, Pal has tailored his investment strategy, focusing on tech and cryptocurrency. He advises patience in the altcoin market, where significant wealth generation could be on the horizon if one plays the long game.

预计即将到来的宏观夏季，帕尔调整了自己的投资策略，重点关注科技和加密货币。他建议对山寨币市场保持耐心，如果长期坚持下去，可能会产生巨大的财富。

Crypto's Future: Uncharted Territory

加密货币的未来：未知领域

As the crypto world stands on the precipice of this new era, Bitcoin soared to $67,003 at the time of Pal's commentary. One thing is certain: the "Macro/Crypto Summer" is here to shake up the financial landscape as we know it.

随着加密货币世界站在这个新时代的悬崖边，在 Pal 发表评论时，比特币飙升至 67,003 美元。有一点是肯定的：“宏观/加密货币之夏”即将撼动我们所知的金融格局。