「宏觀/加密貨幣之夏」會持續還是會消失？

著名金融專家 Raoul Pal 介紹了「宏觀/加密貨幣夏季」的概念，這是金融和加密貨幣交織的世界中的一個重要時期。這種現象與全球經濟流動性的潮起潮落同時發生，預計在 2022 年下半年出現，對科技股和加密貨幣市場產生深遠影響。

Is the 'Macro/Crypto Summer' Here to Stay?

「宏觀/加密貨幣夏天」會持續下去嗎？

Amidst the cacophony of financial chatter on X, the digital reincarnation of Twitter, Raoul Pal, the oracle of high-stakes trading, dropped a bombshell: the dawn of the "Macro/Crypto Summer."

在 X 上喧囂的金融討論中，Twitter 的數位化轉世，高風險交易的預言家 Raoul Pal 投下了一個重磅炸彈：「宏觀/加密貨幣之夏」的黎明。

Pal, the mastermind behind Global Macro Investor and Real Vision, believes this phenomenon is more than just a passing fad. It's a pivotal moment in the intertwined worlds of finance and crypto, deeply ingrained in the cyclical dance of the global economy.

Global Macro Investor 和 Real Vision 的幕後策劃者帕爾認為，這種現像不僅僅是一時的時尚。這是金融和加密世界相互交織的關鍵時刻，在全球經濟的周期性舞蹈中根深蒂固。

What Triggers the 'Macro Summer'?

是什麼觸發了「宏觀夏季」？

Think of the "Macro Summer" as a stage in a meticulously choreographed "Everything Code" cycle. It typically emerges about ten months after the Financial Conditions Index, a measure of liquidity and debt refinancing, takes a dive. Coincidentally, this coincides with the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) index hitting its low point, signaling an uptick in GDP growth.

將「宏觀夏季」視為精心設計的「一切代碼」週期中的一個階段。它通常在衡量流動性和債務再融資的金融狀況指數下跌約十個月後出現。巧合的是，這恰逢供應管理協會 (ISM) 指數觸及低點，顯示 GDP 成長加速。

Liquidity: The Driving Force

流動性：驅動力

The ebb and flow of liquidity plays a crucial role in this three-and-a-half-year ISM business cycle. Pal predicts a surge in liquidity in the second half of 2022, setting the stage for the impending Macro Summer and Fall seasons.

流動性的漲落在這個三年半的ISM商業週期中發揮著至關重要的作用。帕爾預測 2022 年下半年流動性將激增，為即將到來的宏觀夏季和秋季奠定基礎。

Crypto's Golden Years

加密貨幣的黃金歲月

Tech stocks tend to thrive during liquidity injections, but Pal sees even greater potential in the crypto markets. He points to historical data showing impressive growth in Bitcoin and Ethereum during previous Macro Summer and Fall seasons. Bitcoin, for instance, soared "2012/2013: +146x, 2016/2017: +30x, 2020/2021: +8x...," while Ethereum skyrocketed "2016/2017: +1,770x, 2020/2021: +41x."

科技股往往在流動性注入期間蓬勃發展，但帕爾認為加密市場具有更大的潛力。他指出，歷史數據顯示，在先前的宏觀夏季和秋季期間，比特幣和以太坊出現了令人印象深刻的成長。例如，比特幣飆升“2012/2013：+146x，2016/2017：+30x，2020/2021：+8x......”，而以太坊則飆升“2016/2017：+1,770x，2020/坊則飆升“2016/2017：+1,770x，2020/坊則飆升“2016/2017：+1,770x，2020/幣2021：+41x” ”。

The Halving Effect

減半效應

Pal also draws a connection between these cycles and Bitcoin's halving events, which occur every four years. Crypto Summer usually hits its stride after a halving, linking crypto's fortunes to broader financial trends.

帕爾也將這些週期與每四年發生一次的比特幣減半事件連結起來。加密之夏通常會在減半後大步邁進，將加密貨幣的命運與更廣泛的金融趨勢聯繫起來。

Liquidity Expansion: Around the Globe

流動性擴張：全球範圍內

Looking ahead, Pal predicts continued liquidity expansion until at least the end of 2025. He believes global financial mechanisms, such as potential money printing by the U.S. to offset surging interest payments and adjustments in Fed Net Liquidity and Treasury General Account (TGA), will contribute to this liquidity flood.

展望未來，帕爾預計流動性將持續擴張，至少持續到2025 年底。他認為，全球金融機制，例如美國可能印鈔票以抵消激增的利息支付以及美聯儲淨流動性和財政部普通帳戶(TGA) 的調整，將助長了這種流動性氾濫。

Pal is confident that the U.S. won't be the only player pumping up the global liquidity. He speculates that "China, the EU, Japan, or maybe a bit of all" could drive this expansion.

帕爾相信美國不會是唯一增加全球流動性的國家。他推測「中國、歐盟、日本，或者也許是其中一些」可能會推動這種擴張。

Investment Strategy: Embrace Patience

投資策略：保持耐心

In anticipation of the burgeoning Macro Summer, Pal has tailored his investment strategy, focusing on tech and cryptocurrency. He advises patience in the altcoin market, where significant wealth generation could be on the horizon if one plays the long game.

預計即將到來的宏觀夏季，帕爾調整了自己的投資策略，專注於科技和加密貨幣。他建議對山寨幣市場保持耐心，如果長期堅持下去，可能會產生巨大的財富。

Crypto's Future: Uncharted Territory

加密貨幣的未來：未知領域

As the crypto world stands on the precipice of this new era, Bitcoin soared to $67,003 at the time of Pal's commentary. One thing is certain: the "Macro/Crypto Summer" is here to shake up the financial landscape as we know it.

隨著加密貨幣世界站在這個新時代的懸崖邊，在 Pal 發表評論時，比特幣飆升至 67,003 美元。有一點是肯定的：「宏觀/加密貨幣之夏」即將撼動我們所知的金融格局。