如果可以从加密市场中学到任何东西，那就是如果存在捷径，它将被采取

以下是代币主义者总编辑Shane Neagle的来宾帖子。如果可以从加密市场中学到任何东西，那就是如果存在捷径，它将进行。

The crypto market is known for taking shortcuts whenever possible. When digital collectibles, or NFTs, rose to prominence, the market was quickly oversaturated.

加密货币市场以尽可能的捷径为捷径而闻名。当数字收藏品或NFT升高时，市场迅速过饱和。

In turn, this shifted the market focus away from speculative NFT buys on their resell potential and toward a broader market rout.

反过来，这将市场的重点从投机性的NFT转移到了他们的转售潜力和更广泛的市场溃败上。

Similarly, with memecoins, no matter the rug pulls and pump and dumps, the allure of a quick buck on the memecoin ride up demonstrated the combination of low barrier to entry plus hype potential.

同样，无论地毯拉力，泵和垃圾场如何，在Memecoin骑行中快速赚钱的诱惑都表明了低障碍的入口和炒作潜力的结合。

But what about the altcoin market itself, outside of memecoins and NFTs? Is there a broader lesson, or even threat, now that AI is an inextricable part of life? First, let’s examine what happens with NFTs as an enlightening parallel.

但是，在Memecoins和NFT之外，Altcoin市场本身呢？既然AI是生活中不可分割的一部分，是否有更广泛的教训甚至威胁？首先，让我们研究NFT所发生的启发性平行。

Oversaturation and Speculation Fatigue

过度饱和疲劳

Just prior to Terra (LUNA) collapse in May 2022, global NFT sales reached nearly $24 billion. The optimism was so high that JP Morgan projected $1 trillion in annual metaverse revenue within a decade. That forecast now seems completely out of place.

就在2022年5月的Terra（Luna）倒闭之前，全球NFT销售额达到了近240亿美元。乐观情绪是如此之高，以至于JP Morgan预计在十年内获得1万亿美元的年度收入。现在的预测似乎完全不合时宜。

Although the cascade of bankruptcies, from Celsius to BlockFi and FTX, acted as a trigger for NFT market collapse, the writing was already on the wall. AI-powered image generators such as Stable Diffusion and DALL-E have drastically lowered the barrier to entry, opening the floodgates for derivative low-effort NFT collections.

尽管从Celsius到Blockfi和FTX的一系列破产，这是NFT市场崩溃的触发，但写作已经在墙上。 AI驱动的图像发生器（例如稳定的扩散和DALL-E）已大大降低了进入障碍，为衍生性低效率的NFT集合打开了闸门。

Such AI-powered saturation drastically eroded the scarcity of collectibles, which ultimately drove down speculative PFP (profile picture) projects in favor of utility-driven NFTs and tokenized real-world assets (RWAs).

这种AI驱动的饱和度彻底侵蚀了收藏品的稀缺性，最终驱赶了投机PFP（配置文件图片）项目，而有利于公用事业驱动的NFT和标记化的现实世界资产（RWAS）。

Altogether, the AI availability greatly exacerbated the underlying weakness of the NFT market – oversupply. This problem is now easy to see, as Ghibli mania is sweeping the social media space, generated by both ChatGPT and Grok.

总体而言，AI的可用性极大地加剧了NFT市场的潜在弱点 - 供过于求。现在，这个问题很容易看到，因为吉卜力的躁狂症正在扫荡由Chatgpt和Grok产生的社交媒体领域。

In turn, the collapsing profit-making from NFTs induced speculation fatigue. Memecoins have mirrored this dynamic quite closely, with the help of additional AI-powered layers:

反过来，NFTS造成的盈利造成的猜测疲劳。 Memecoins在其他AI驱动的层的帮助下非常密切地反映了这种动态：

The ultimate result of AI amplification is the creation of a market that is highly prone to bubble bursts. Consequently, repeated bursts cause exhaustion and ever-decreasing retail engagement — especially when participants are lured by hype rather than guided by sound risk management. But the question is, could this type of crypto exhaustion infect the altcoin market on a deeper level?

AI扩增的最终结果是创建一个非常容易泡沫破裂的市场。因此，反复的爆发会导致疲惫，零售零售参与度，尤其是当参与者被炒作引诱而不是在声音风险管理的指导下。但是问题是，这种类型的加密衰竭能否在更深层次的水平上感染Altcoin市场？

AI In Blockchain Coding: New Distortion Frontier

区块链编码中的AI：新的失真边界

For years, it has been common to measure the underlying value of a blockchain project by developer involvement. This developer activity then serves as a signal toward prospective tokenholders. After all, if a project has few core developers, there is much greater risk the project will suffer if they leave.

多年来，通过开发人员的参与来衡量区块链项目的基本价值是普遍的。然后，该开发人员的活动是对潜在代币持有人的信号。毕竟，如果一个项目的核心开发人员很少，那么如果项目离开，该项目将遭受更大的风险。

In turn, there would be less effort going into bug hunting, new features, roadmap implementation and optimization. This is why many dedicated websites exist to expose this metric, tracking developer commits across different time periods.

反过来，搜寻错误，新功能，路线图实施和优化的努力将减少。这就是为什么存在许多专门的网站来揭示此指标的原因，跟踪开发人员在不同时间段内承诺。

In short, developer activity measures blockchain’s health status. As developers seek incentives, it may even reveal the blockchain’s adoption potential as their key long-term value driver.

简而言之，开发人员活动衡量区块链的健康状况。当开发人员寻求激励措施时，它甚至可能揭示区块链的采用潜力是其主要的长期价值驱动力。

But with AI in play, we are looking at a significant distortion potential. Over the last year, it has been widely accepted that AI models, alongside image generation, are at their best when it comes to coding. Specifically, Anthropic’s Claude 3.7 has been well received as a coding multiplier, capable of replacing junior software engineers.

但是随着AI的作用，我们正在研究巨大的失真潜力。在过去的一年中，人们广泛认为，与图像生成的AI模型在编码方面处于最佳状态。具体而言，Anthropic的Claude 3.7被以编码乘数的好评，能够代替初级软件工程师。

This opens an entirely new landscape in which few senior developers can leverage their AI underlings to:

这打开了一个全新的景观，很少有高级开发人员可以利用其AI的基础来：

And just as it happened with NFTs and memecoins, the lower the barrier to entry, the higher the oversupply potential. AI keeps lowering that barrier to entry, with the capacity for a full blockchain project pipeline, from smart contract code to social media boost.

正如NFTS和Memecoins发生的那样，进入障碍的距离越低，供应量的潜力就越高。 AI不断降低进入进入障碍，并具有完整的区块链项目管道的能力，从智能合同代码到社交媒体提升。

It may even be the case that AI could fabricate smart contract audits by generating false confidence. When it comes to developer activity metric, AI tools can easily distort it with auto-generated commits and pull requests, or even fake GitHub accounts that generate minor and frequent updates.

AI甚至可以通过产生虚假信心来制定智能合同审核。当涉及开发人员活动指标时，AI工具可以通过自动生成的提交和拉出请求轻松扭曲它，甚至可以产生次要更新和频繁更新的假github帐户。

Consequently, as new tokens come in the spotlight, it will be more difficult to assess its true value and health.

因此，随着新令牌成为焦点，评估其真实价值和健康将更加困难。

The Bright Side of AI-Powered Token Generation

AI驱动的令牌一代的光明面

Even in the early stage, AI models are becoming replacement-worthy when it comes to coding. This opens the door for churning out tokens with minimal effort, once again repeating the NFT-like cycle of flooding the market with low-utility tokens.

即使在早期阶段，AI模型在编码方面也变得值得更换。这为以最小的努力而耗尽令牌打开了大门，再次重复了像NFT一样的洪水泛滥的周期。

This will inevitably cause more exhaustion and disillusionment with the crypto space, as it will be more difficult to filter AI noise. By the same token, there will be advantages:

这将不可避免地会引起加密空间的疲惫和幻灭，因为过滤AI噪声将更加困难。同样，也将有优势：

Ultimately, AI cannot sustainably fake adoption. Rather, AI will serve as a filtering mechanism to purge weak projects.

最终，AI无法可持续伪造的收养。相反，AI将作为清除弱项目的过滤机制。

Unfortunately, memecoin activity over the last few years clearly shows that people seek out early opportunities in hopes of getting the coveted 10x profit lock-in. This is not an investor mindset but a quick buck mindset. Therefore, this driver will maintain incentives to use AI for crypto project generation for no other

不幸的是，过去几年中的Memecoin活动清楚地表明，人们寻求早期的机会，希望获得令人垂涎的10倍利润锁定。这不是投资者的心态，而是快速的思维方式。因此，该驾驶员将保持动力将AI用于加密项目生成