如果可以從加密市場中學到任何東西，那就是如果存在捷徑，它將被採取

以下是代幣主義者總編輯Shane Neagle的來賓帖子。如果可以從加密市場中學到任何東西，那就是如果存在捷徑，它將進行。

The crypto market is known for taking shortcuts whenever possible. When digital collectibles, or NFTs, rose to prominence, the market was quickly oversaturated.

加密貨幣市場以盡可能的捷徑為捷徑而聞名。當數字收藏品或NFT升高時，市場迅速過飽和。

In turn, this shifted the market focus away from speculative NFT buys on their resell potential and toward a broader market rout.

反過來，這將市場的重點從投機性的NFT轉移到了他們的轉售潛力和更廣泛的市場潰敗上。

Similarly, with memecoins, no matter the rug pulls and pump and dumps, the allure of a quick buck on the memecoin ride up demonstrated the combination of low barrier to entry plus hype potential.

同樣，無論地毯拉力，泵和垃圾場如何，在Memecoin騎行中快速賺錢的誘惑都表明了低障礙的入口和炒作潛力的結合。

But what about the altcoin market itself, outside of memecoins and NFTs? Is there a broader lesson, or even threat, now that AI is an inextricable part of life? First, let’s examine what happens with NFTs as an enlightening parallel.

但是，在Memecoins和NFT之外，Altcoin市場本身呢？既然AI是生活中不可分割的一部分，是否有更廣泛的教訓甚至威脅？首先，讓我們研究NFT所發生的啟發性平行。

Oversaturation and Speculation Fatigue

過度飽和疲勞

Just prior to Terra (LUNA) collapse in May 2022, global NFT sales reached nearly $24 billion. The optimism was so high that JP Morgan projected $1 trillion in annual metaverse revenue within a decade. That forecast now seems completely out of place.

就在2022年5月的Terra（Luna）倒閉之前，全球NFT銷售額達到了近240億美元。樂觀情緒是如此之高，以至於JP Morgan預計在十年內獲得1萬億美元的年度收入。現在的預測似乎完全不合時宜。

Although the cascade of bankruptcies, from Celsius to BlockFi and FTX, acted as a trigger for NFT market collapse, the writing was already on the wall. AI-powered image generators such as Stable Diffusion and DALL-E have drastically lowered the barrier to entry, opening the floodgates for derivative low-effort NFT collections.

儘管從Celsius到Blockfi和FTX的一系列破產，這是NFT市場崩潰的觸發，但寫作已經在牆上。 AI驅動的圖像發生器（例如穩定的擴散和DALL-E）已大大降低了進入障礙，為衍生性低效率的NFT集合打開了閘門。

Such AI-powered saturation drastically eroded the scarcity of collectibles, which ultimately drove down speculative PFP (profile picture) projects in favor of utility-driven NFTs and tokenized real-world assets (RWAs).

這種AI驅動的飽和度徹底侵蝕了收藏品的稀缺性，最終驅趕了投機PFP（配置文件圖片）項目，而有利於公用事業驅動的NFT和標記化的現實世界資產（RWAS）。

Altogether, the AI availability greatly exacerbated the underlying weakness of the NFT market – oversupply. This problem is now easy to see, as Ghibli mania is sweeping the social media space, generated by both ChatGPT and Grok.

總體而言，AI的可用性極大地加劇了NFT市場的潛在弱點 - 供過於求。現在，這個問題很容易看到，因為吉卜力的躁狂症正在掃蕩由Chatgpt和Grok產生的社交媒體領域。

In turn, the collapsing profit-making from NFTs induced speculation fatigue. Memecoins have mirrored this dynamic quite closely, with the help of additional AI-powered layers:

反過來，NFTS造成的盈利造成的猜測疲勞。 Memecoins在其他AI驅動的層的幫助下非常密切地反映了這種動態：

The ultimate result of AI amplification is the creation of a market that is highly prone to bubble bursts. Consequently, repeated bursts cause exhaustion and ever-decreasing retail engagement — especially when participants are lured by hype rather than guided by sound risk management. But the question is, could this type of crypto exhaustion infect the altcoin market on a deeper level?

AI擴增的最終結果是創建一個非常容易泡沫破裂的市場。因此，反复的爆發會導致疲憊，零售零售參與度，尤其是當參與者被炒作引誘而不是在聲音風險管理的指導下。但是問題是，這種類型的加密衰竭能否在更深層次的水平上感染Altcoin市場？

AI In Blockchain Coding: New Distortion Frontier

區塊鏈編碼中的AI：新的失真邊界

For years, it has been common to measure the underlying value of a blockchain project by developer involvement. This developer activity then serves as a signal toward prospective tokenholders. After all, if a project has few core developers, there is much greater risk the project will suffer if they leave.

多年來，通過開發人員的參與來衡量區塊鏈項目的基本價值是普遍的。然後，該開發人員的活動是對潛在代幣持有人的信號。畢竟，如果一個項目的核心開發人員很少，那麼如果項目離開，該項目將遭受更大的風險。

In turn, there would be less effort going into bug hunting, new features, roadmap implementation and optimization. This is why many dedicated websites exist to expose this metric, tracking developer commits across different time periods.

反過來，搜尋錯誤，新功能，路線圖實施和優化的努力將減少。這就是為什麼存在許多專門的網站來揭示此指標的原因，跟踪開發人員在不同時間段內承諾。

In short, developer activity measures blockchain’s health status. As developers seek incentives, it may even reveal the blockchain’s adoption potential as their key long-term value driver.

簡而言之，開發人員活動衡量區塊鏈的健康狀況。當開發人員尋求激勵措施時，它甚至可能揭示區塊鏈的採用潛力是其主要的長期價值驅動力。

But with AI in play, we are looking at a significant distortion potential. Over the last year, it has been widely accepted that AI models, alongside image generation, are at their best when it comes to coding. Specifically, Anthropic’s Claude 3.7 has been well received as a coding multiplier, capable of replacing junior software engineers.

但是隨著AI的作用，我們正在研究巨大的失真潛力。在過去的一年中，人們廣泛認為，與圖像生成的AI模型在編碼方面處於最佳狀態。具體而言，Anthropic的Claude 3.7被以編碼乘數的好評，能夠代替初級軟件工程師。

This opens an entirely new landscape in which few senior developers can leverage their AI underlings to:

這打開了一個全新的景觀，很少有高級開發人員可以利用其AI的基礎來：

And just as it happened with NFTs and memecoins, the lower the barrier to entry, the higher the oversupply potential. AI keeps lowering that barrier to entry, with the capacity for a full blockchain project pipeline, from smart contract code to social media boost.

正如NFTS和Memecoins發生的那樣，進入障礙的距離越低，供應量的潛力就越高。 AI不斷降低進入進入障礙，並具有完整的區塊鏈項目管道的能力，從智能合同代碼到社交媒體提升。

It may even be the case that AI could fabricate smart contract audits by generating false confidence. When it comes to developer activity metric, AI tools can easily distort it with auto-generated commits and pull requests, or even fake GitHub accounts that generate minor and frequent updates.

AI甚至可以通過產生虛假信心來製定智能合同審核。當涉及開發人員活動指標時，AI工具可以通過自動生成的提交和拉出請求輕鬆扭曲它，甚至可以產生次要更新和頻繁更新的假github帳戶。

Consequently, as new tokens come in the spotlight, it will be more difficult to assess its true value and health.

因此，隨著新令牌成為焦點，評估其真實價值和健康將更加困難。

The Bright Side of AI-Powered Token Generation

AI驅動的令牌一代的光明面

Even in the early stage, AI models are becoming replacement-worthy when it comes to coding. This opens the door for churning out tokens with minimal effort, once again repeating the NFT-like cycle of flooding the market with low-utility tokens.

即使在早期階段，AI模型在編碼方面也變得值得更換。這為以最小的努力而耗盡令牌打開了大門，再次重複了像NFT一樣的洪水氾濫的周期。

This will inevitably cause more exhaustion and disillusionment with the crypto space, as it will be more difficult to filter AI noise. By the same token, there will be advantages:

這將不可避免地會引起加密空間的疲憊和幻滅，因為過濾AI噪聲將更加困難。同樣，也將有優勢：

Ultimately, AI cannot sustainably fake adoption. Rather, AI will serve as a filtering mechanism to purge weak projects.

最終，AI無法可持續偽造的收養。相反，AI將作為清除弱項目的過濾機制。

Unfortunately, memecoin activity over the last few years clearly shows that people seek out early opportunities in hopes of getting the coveted 10x profit lock-in. This is not an investor mindset but a quick buck mindset. Therefore, this driver will maintain incentives to use AI for crypto project generation for no other

不幸的是，過去幾年中的Memecoin活動清楚地表明，人們尋求早期的機會，希望獲得令人垂涎的10倍利潤鎖定。這不是投資者的心態，而是快速的思維方式。因此，該駕駛員將保持動力將AI用於加密項目生成