几个关键的比特币指标目前指向相同的价格范围

链分析公司GlassNode的一份报告显示，比特币价格区域可能对公牛至关重要。

In its latest weekly report, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has discussed the Bitcoin investor cost basis from various angles.

On-Chain Analytics公司GlassNode在其最新的每周报告中，从各个角度讨论了比特币投资者的成本基础。

The first indicator that the analytics firm has shared is the “UTXO Realized Price Distribution” (URPD), that basically tells us about how the BTC supply is distributed among the different price levels based on the last transaction value.

分析公司共享的第一个指标是“ UTXO实现的价格分布”（URPD），它基本上告诉我们如何根据上次交易价值在不同的价格水平之间分配BTC供应。

As is visible in the chart, very few coins had their cost basis between $70,000 and $92,000 before the crash. In on-chain analysis, investor cost basis is considered an important topic, as holders are more likely to make some kind of move when their profit-loss status is threatened. Since this range contained the acquisition level of only a small part of the supply, it was sort of an “air-gap” in terms of potential demand.

正如图表中可见的那样，在坠机发生前，很少有硬币的成本基础在70,000至92,000美元之间。在链分析中，投资者的成本基础被认为是一个重要的话题，因为当持有人威胁到其利润损失时，持有人更有可能采取某种行动。由于该范围仅包含供应的一小部分的收购水平，因此，就潜在需求而言，这是一个“气隙”。

This may be why BTC easily slipped deep into this region when the crash came. So far, though, the bulls have come through in providing support, as they have since participated in some buying in this vacant region, changing the URPD.

这可能就是为什么当坠机发生时，BTC很容易进入该地区。不过，到目前为止，公牛队已经通过提供支持，因为他们参加了在这个空置地区的一些购买，改变了URPD。

Thus, the range is now better set up to provide support than before, although it’s still sort of an empty region when compared to the other Bitcoin cost basis centers.

因此，与其他比特币成本基础中心相比，尽管它仍然是空的区域，但现在的范围比以前更好。

The second indicator that Glassnode has talked about is the Realized Price of the short-term holders. The “Realized Price” is a term that was also in the full form of URPD. What this metric measures is the cost basis of the average investor belonging to a part of the BTC userbase.

玻璃节谈到的第二个指标是短期持有人的实现价格。 “实现的价格”是一个以URPD的全部形式的术语。该指标措施是属于BTC用户群中一部分的普通投资者的成本基础。

Below is a chart that shows the trend in the indicator for the short-term holders (STHs), who are the Bitcoin investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days.

下图显示了短期持有人（STH）的指标趋势，他们是比特币投资者，他们在过去155天内购买了硬币。

“The Short-Term Holder cost basis has historically acted as an important reference level across bull-market uptrends,” notes the analytics firm. “We have calculated the ±1σ bands of the Short-Term Holder Cost-Basis, which have typically acted as a sort of upper and lower bound for local price action.”

分析公司指出：“历史上，短期持有人的成本基础一直是跨牛市上升趋势的重要参考水平。” “我们已经计算了短期持有人成本基础的±1σ频段，这些持有人的成本基础通常是当地价格行动的上层和下限。”

Interestingly, this lower bound, that is, the level one standard deviation below the STH Realized Price, is situated at $71,000 right now. This is about the same level as where the previously mentioned air-gap area ends.

有趣的是，这种下限，即低于STH实现的价格的第一级标准偏差，目前为71,000美元。这与前面提到的气隙区域结束的水平大致相同。

This isn’t the only other place where this level shows up, as the chart for the Active Realized Price shows.

正如Active已实现的价格显示的图表所示，这并不是唯一的其他地方。

The “Active Realized Price” basically takes the Realized Price of the entire BTC network, with an added twist. The metric only includes the ‘economical’ supply, meaning that it excludes for the part of the supply that Glassnode has determined to be unlikely to return back into circulation.

“主动实现的价格”基本上取决于整个BTC网络的实现价格，并增加了扭曲。该指标仅包括“经济”供应，这意味着它不包括玻璃节确定不太可能返回流通的供应部分。

At present, the Active Realized Price stands at $70,000, which is once again nearly the same level as the one from the other two indicators. “With significant confluence across several key cost basis metrics, this price region becomes an area of interest, perhaps being the final defence line for the bulls in the event of a complete capitulation,” concludes the report.

目前，Active实现的价格为70,000美元，与其他两个指标的水平再次相同。该报告总结说：“由于几个关键的成本基础指标的大量汇合，这个价格区域成为一个感兴趣的领域，也许是公牛的最终防御线。”