幾個關鍵的比特幣指標目前指向相同的價格範圍

鏈分析公司GlassNode的一份報告顯示，比特幣價格區域可能對公牛至關重要。

In its latest weekly report, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has discussed the Bitcoin investor cost basis from various angles.

On-Chain Analytics公司GlassNode在其最新的每週報告中，從各個角度討論了比特幣投資者的成本基礎。

The first indicator that the analytics firm has shared is the “UTXO Realized Price Distribution” (URPD), that basically tells us about how the BTC supply is distributed among the different price levels based on the last transaction value.

分析公司共享的第一個指標是“ UTXO實現的價格分佈”（URPD），它基本上告訴我們如何根據上次交易價值在不同的價格水平之間分配BTC供應。

As is visible in the chart, very few coins had their cost basis between $70,000 and $92,000 before the crash. In on-chain analysis, investor cost basis is considered an important topic, as holders are more likely to make some kind of move when their profit-loss status is threatened. Since this range contained the acquisition level of only a small part of the supply, it was sort of an “air-gap” in terms of potential demand.

正如圖表中可見的那樣，在墜機發生前，很少有硬幣的成本基礎在70,000至92,000美元之間。在鏈分析中，投資者的成本基礎被認為是一個重要的話題，因為當持有人威脅到其利潤損失時，持有人更有可能採取某種行動。由於該範圍僅包含供應的一小部分的收購水平，因此，就潛在需求而言，這是一個“氣隙”。

This may be why BTC easily slipped deep into this region when the crash came. So far, though, the bulls have come through in providing support, as they have since participated in some buying in this vacant region, changing the URPD.

這可能就是為什麼當墜機發生時，BTC很容易進入該地區。不過，到目前為止，公牛隊已經通過提供支持，因為他們參加了在這個空置地區的一些購買，改變了URPD。

Thus, the range is now better set up to provide support than before, although it’s still sort of an empty region when compared to the other Bitcoin cost basis centers.

因此，與其他比特幣成本基礎中心相比，儘管它仍然是空的區域，但現在的範圍比以前更好。

The second indicator that Glassnode has talked about is the Realized Price of the short-term holders. The “Realized Price” is a term that was also in the full form of URPD. What this metric measures is the cost basis of the average investor belonging to a part of the BTC userbase.

玻璃節談到的第二個指標是短期持有人的實現價格。 “實現的價格”是一個以URPD的全部形式的術語。該指標措施是屬於BTC用戶群中一部分的普通投資者的成本基礎。

Below is a chart that shows the trend in the indicator for the short-term holders (STHs), who are the Bitcoin investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days.

下圖顯示了短期持有人（STH）的指標趨勢，他們是比特幣投資者，他們在過去155天內購買了硬幣。

“The Short-Term Holder cost basis has historically acted as an important reference level across bull-market uptrends,” notes the analytics firm. “We have calculated the ±1σ bands of the Short-Term Holder Cost-Basis, which have typically acted as a sort of upper and lower bound for local price action.”

分析公司指出：“歷史上，短期持有人的成本基礎一直是跨牛市上升趨勢的重要參考水平。” “我們已經計算了短期持有人成本基礎的±1σ頻段，這些持有人的成本基礎通常是當地價格行動的上層和下限。”

Interestingly, this lower bound, that is, the level one standard deviation below the STH Realized Price, is situated at $71,000 right now. This is about the same level as where the previously mentioned air-gap area ends.

有趣的是，這種下限，即低於STH實現的價格的第一級標準偏差，目前為71,000美元。這與前面提到的氣隙區域結束的水平大致相同。

This isn’t the only other place where this level shows up, as the chart for the Active Realized Price shows.

正如Active已實現的價格顯示的圖表所示，這並不是唯一的其他地方。

The “Active Realized Price” basically takes the Realized Price of the entire BTC network, with an added twist. The metric only includes the ‘economical’ supply, meaning that it excludes for the part of the supply that Glassnode has determined to be unlikely to return back into circulation.

“主動實現的價格”基本上取決於整個BTC網絡的實現價格，並增加了扭曲。該指標僅包括“經濟”供應，這意味著它不包括玻璃節確定不太可能返回流通的供應部分。

At present, the Active Realized Price stands at $70,000, which is once again nearly the same level as the one from the other two indicators. “With significant confluence across several key cost basis metrics, this price region becomes an area of interest, perhaps being the final defence line for the bulls in the event of a complete capitulation,” concludes the report.

目前，Active實現的價格為70,000美元，與其他兩個指標的水平再次相同。該報告總結說：“由於幾個關鍵的成本基礎指標的大量匯合，這個價格區域成為一個感興趣的領域，也許是公牛的最終防禦線。”