贾斯汀·特鲁多 (Justin Trudeau) 辞职传闻四起，Polymarket 投注者预测周五离开的可能性为 82%

Polymarket 的投注者预测加拿大总理贾斯汀·特鲁多将在本周末辞职。然而，当地媒体的报道表明，他的离职可能会更早。

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is facing increasing pressure to resign, with bettors on Polymarket predicting that he will step down within the next week.

加拿大总理贾斯汀·特鲁多面临着越来越大的辞职压力，Polymarket 的投注者预测他将在下周内辞职。

According to the latest odds, Trudeau has an 82% chance of leaving office by Friday, January 10. Another prediction gives him a 72% chance of doing so by Wednesday, January 8, while the chances of him stepping down today, January 6, stand at 26%.

根据最新赔率，特鲁多在 1 月 10 日星期五之前卸任的可能性为 82%。 另一项预测显示，他在 1 月 8 日星期三之前卸任的可能性为 72%，而他在今天 1 月 6 日下台的可能性为维持在26%。

Several reports from local media also suggest that Trudeau’s departure might occur sooner. The Toronto Star and The Globe and Mail have published articles indicating that the prime minister could leave office between January 6 and January 8.

当地媒体的几篇报道也表明，特鲁多可能会更早下台。 《多伦多星报》和《环球邮报》发表文章称，总理可能在1月6日至8日之间卸任。

The Globe and Mail adds that while the exact date of Trudeau’s exit is still unknown, it will likely come before the national caucus meeting on Wednesday.

《环球邮报》补充说，虽然特鲁多退出的确切日期仍不得而知，但很可能会在周三的全国党团会议之前举行。

However, the majority of bettors on Polymarket still seem to be leaning toward January 10.

然而，Polymarket 上的大多数投注者似乎仍然倾向于 1 月 10 日。

Trudeau’s possible resignation comes amid declining approval for both him and his party, with the Conservatives being projected to win a parliamentary majority.

特鲁多可能辞职，因为他和他的政党的支持率都在下降，预计保守党将赢得议会多数席位。

If Trudeau were to resign, his party would be left without a permanent leader, as polls indicate that the Liberals are on track for a significant loss to the opposition Conservatives.

如果特鲁多辞职，他的政党将失去永久领导人，因为民调显示自由党有望大幅输给反对党保守党。

Despite the rumors, Trudeau appears to be staying focused on his work. He posted on his X page yesterday that nearly a million Canadian families experienced reduced child care fees, saving parents thousands through the national child care program, and that efforts to bring costs down will continue this year.

尽管有谣言，特鲁多似乎仍专注于他的工作。他昨天在他的X页面上发帖称，近一百万加拿大家庭的儿童保育费用降低了，通过国家儿童保育计划为父母节省了数千美元，并且今年将继续努力降低成本。

“A big win from 2024: Nearly a million Canadian families saw their child care fees come down. Parents saved thousands of dollars, thanks to our national child care program. In 2025, we’re going to keep bringing those costs down. Let’s go,” Trudeau’s post reads.

“2024 年的一大胜利：近 100 万加拿大家庭的托儿费用下降了。感谢我们的国家儿童保育计划，家长们节省了数千美元。到 2025 年，我们将继续降低这些成本。我们走吧，”特鲁多的帖子中写道。

The prime minister also announced in December that for the next two months, certain items in Canada, including prepared foods, snacks, and restaurant meals, will be exempt from taxes, providing Canadians with a temporary tax break.

总理还在去年12月宣布，在接下来的两个月里，加拿大的某些商品，包括预制食品、零食和餐厅餐食将免税，为加拿大人提供临时税收减免。

Meanwhile, Polymarket gained significant attention in political forecasting last year due to high-profile contracts linked to the US General Elections.

与此同时，由于与美国大选相关的高调合同，Polymarket 去年在政治预测中获得了广泛关注。

This contributed to the platform’s growth in active users and volume, generating more than $9 billion in trading volume across multiple contracts.

这促进了该平台活跃用户和交易量的增长，多个合约的交易量超过 90 亿美元。

Its growth also drew the attention of the FBI and led to a DOJ inquiry into potential US user involvement, specifically focusing on Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan.

它的增长也引起了联邦调查局的注意，并导致司法部对潜在的美国用户参与进行调查，特别关注 Polymarket 首席执行官谢恩·科普兰 (Shayne Coplan)。

The platform, which is licensed in the British Virgin Islands, has also faced scrutiny from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over its decentralized betting activities.

该平台在英属维尔京群岛获得许可，还因其去中心化投注活动而面临商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）的审查。

However, despite the regulatory attention and recent legal challenges, Polymarket continues to operate and offer a wide range of political contracts for users to bet on.

然而，尽管受到监管机构的关注和最近的法律挑战，Polymarket 仍继续运营并提供广泛的政治合约供用户投注。

The platform’s predictions have often aligned with the eventual outcomes, making it a valuable tool for political enthusiasts and bettors alike.

该平台的预测通常与最终结果一致，使其成为政治爱好者和博彩玩家的宝贵工具。