賈斯汀·杜魯多 (Justin Trudeau) 辭職傳聞四起，Polymarket 投注者預測週五離開的可能性為 82%

Polymarket 的投注者預測加拿大總理賈斯汀·杜魯多將在本週末辭職。然而，當地媒體的報道表明，他的離職可能會更早。

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is facing increasing pressure to resign, with bettors on Polymarket predicting that he will step down within the next week.

加拿大總理賈斯汀·杜魯道面臨越來越大的辭職壓力，Polymarket 的投注者預測他將在下週內辭職。

According to the latest odds, Trudeau has an 82% chance of leaving office by Friday, January 10. Another prediction gives him a 72% chance of doing so by Wednesday, January 8, while the chances of him stepping down today, January 6, stand at 26%.

根據最新賠率，杜魯道在1 月10 日星期五之前卸任的可能性為82%。月6 日下台的可能性為維持在26%。

Several reports from local media also suggest that Trudeau’s departure might occur sooner. The Toronto Star and The Globe and Mail have published articles indicating that the prime minister could leave office between January 6 and January 8.

當地媒體的幾篇報導也表明，杜魯道可能會更早下台。 《多倫多星報》和《環球郵報》發表文章稱，總理可能在1月6日至8日之間卸任。

The Globe and Mail adds that while the exact date of Trudeau’s exit is still unknown, it will likely come before the national caucus meeting on Wednesday.

《環球郵報》補充說，雖然杜魯道退出的確切日期仍不清楚，但很可能會在周三的全國黨團會議之前舉行。

However, the majority of bettors on Polymarket still seem to be leaning toward January 10.

然而，Polymarket 上的大多數投注者似乎仍然傾向於 1 月 10 日。

Trudeau’s possible resignation comes amid declining approval for both him and his party, with the Conservatives being projected to win a parliamentary majority.

杜魯道可能辭職，因為他和他的政黨的支持率都在下降，預計保守黨將贏得議會多數。

If Trudeau were to resign, his party would be left without a permanent leader, as polls indicate that the Liberals are on track for a significant loss to the opposition Conservatives.

如果杜魯道辭職，他的政黨將失去永久領導人，因為民調顯示自由黨有望大幅輸給反對黨保守黨。

Despite the rumors, Trudeau appears to be staying focused on his work. He posted on his X page yesterday that nearly a million Canadian families experienced reduced child care fees, saving parents thousands through the national child care program, and that efforts to bring costs down will continue this year.

儘管有謠言，杜魯道似乎仍專注於他的工作。他昨天在他的X頁面上發文稱，近一百萬加拿大家庭的兒童保育費降低了，透過國家兒童保育計畫為父母節省了數千美元，並且今年將繼續努力降低成本。

“A big win from 2024: Nearly a million Canadian families saw their child care fees come down. Parents saved thousands of dollars, thanks to our national child care program. In 2025, we’re going to keep bringing those costs down. Let’s go,” Trudeau’s post reads.

「2024 年的一大勝利：近 100 萬加拿大家庭的托兒費用下降了。感謝我們的國家兒童保育計劃，家長們節省了數千美元。到 2025 年，我們將繼續降低這些成本。我們走吧，」杜魯多的貼文中寫道。

The prime minister also announced in December that for the next two months, certain items in Canada, including prepared foods, snacks, and restaurant meals, will be exempt from taxes, providing Canadians with a temporary tax break.

總理也在去年12月宣布，在接下來的兩個月裡，加拿大的某些商品，包括預製食品、零食和餐廳餐點將免稅，為加拿大人提供臨時稅收減免。

Meanwhile, Polymarket gained significant attention in political forecasting last year due to high-profile contracts linked to the US General Elections.

與此同時，由於與美國大選相關的高調合同，Polymarket 去年在政治預測中獲得了廣泛關注。

This contributed to the platform’s growth in active users and volume, generating more than $9 billion in trading volume across multiple contracts.

這促進了該平台活躍用戶和交易量的成長，多個合約的交易量超過 90 億美元。

Its growth also drew the attention of the FBI and led to a DOJ inquiry into potential US user involvement, specifically focusing on Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan.

它的成長也引起了聯邦調查局的注意，並導致司法部對潛在的美國用戶參與進行調查，特別關注 Polymarket 執行長 Shayne Coplan。

The platform, which is licensed in the British Virgin Islands, has also faced scrutiny from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) over its decentralized betting activities.

該平台在英屬維京群島獲得許可，也因其去中心化投注活動而面臨商品期貨交易委員會（CFTC）的審查。

However, despite the regulatory attention and recent legal challenges, Polymarket continues to operate and offer a wide range of political contracts for users to bet on.

然而，儘管受到監管機構的關注和最近的法律挑戰，Polymarket 仍繼續運作並提供廣泛的政治合約供用戶投注。

The platform’s predictions have often aligned with the eventual outcomes, making it a valuable tool for political enthusiasts and bettors alike.

該平台的預測通常與最終結果一致，使其成為政治愛好者和博彩玩家的寶貴工具。