JOLTS 12月报告：投资者需要注意

希望在美国美联储（美联储）降低利率的潜力的投资者正在研究各种传入的数据点。

Investors are keeping a close eye on the upcoming Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report for December 2024, as it could provide valuable insights into the state of the US labour market and its implications for interest rates.

投资者正在密切关注即将到来的工作空缺和劳动力流动调查（JOLTS）的报告（JOLTS）报告，因为它可以为美国劳动力市场的状况提供宝贵的见解及其对利率的影响。

The report, scheduled for release on Tuesday, 4 February, is expected to show a slight decrease in job openings compared to the previous month. Forecasts suggest that openings could dip to around 7.64 million, down from 8.1 million in November 2024.

该报告原定于2月4日星期二发布，预计与上个月相比，职位空缺略有下降。预测表明，开口可以降至约764万，低于2024年11月的810万。

This moderation in job openings aligns with the recent payroll data for December, which showed a robust addition of 256,000 jobs. The strong job gains, coupled with the anticipated decrease in openings, could indicate that some of the earlier demand for workers has been met.

工作空缺的适度与十二月的最近工资数据相吻合，该数据显示了256,000个工作岗位。强劲的工作增长，再加上预期的空缺下降，可能表明已经满足了对工人的一些早期需求。

The hires and quits rates, which offer a snapshot of how smoothly the labour market is functioning, will also be in focus. December's payroll report highlighted sector-specific strength, with 43,000 jobs added in retail and continued growth in healthcare, suggesting robust hiring in consumer-driven and essential industries.

雇用和退出费率也将成为劳动力市场运作方式的快照，也将成为重点。 12月的薪资报告强调了特定部门的实力，零售业增加了43,000个工作岗位，医疗保健的持续增长表明，消费者驱动和基本产业的雇用强劲。

However, hires in professional services and manufacturing will provide crucial insights into whether broader labour demand is holding up. The quits rate, which remained stable at 1.9% in November, reflects worker confidence. When people voluntarily leave their jobs at a higher rate, it signals optimism about finding better opportunities.

但是，专业服务和制造业的雇用将提供至关重要的见解，以了解更广泛的劳动力需求。退出的率在11月份保持稳定为1.9％，反映了工人的信心。当人们以更高的速度自愿离开工作时，它表明对寻找更好的机会的乐观情绪。

Strong job gains in sectors like retail and hospitality might indicate elevated quits as employees move to higher-paying or more secure roles. A stable quits rate would suggest that the labour market is finding a sustainable balance between supply and demand.

零售和款待等领域的强劲工作收益可能表明，随着员工转移到高薪或更安全的角色时，退出的工作升高。稳定的退出率将表明劳动力市场正在供应和需求之间找到可持续的平衡。

The JOLTS report's wage trends will also be closely monitored, especially in light of the December payroll data which revealed continued wage growth, albeit at a moderated pace, easing concerns about inflation.

震撼报告的工资趋势也将受到密切监控，尤其是鉴于12月份的工资数据显示，该数据表明工资增长持续增长，尽管以调节速度，这使人们对通货膨胀有所关注。

With robust hiring, particularly in consumer sectors, the JOLTS report's wage trends will be a critical focus. If wages show signs of stabilising or slowing, it may signal that the labour market is cooling enough to keep inflation in check and, thus, support Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.

随着强大的招聘，特别是在消费部门的招聘，《震动报告的工资趋势》将是一个关键的重点。如果工资显示出稳定或放缓的迹象，则可能表明劳动力市场正在冷却以保持通货膨胀率，因此支持今年的美联储降低速度。

Wages present a delicate balancing act for the Fed. Too much growth could delay rate cuts, while slower wage gains might support the ongoing stock market rally.

工资为美联储提供了微妙的平衡行为。太多的增长可能会降低降低，而工资收益较慢可能会支持正在进行的股市集会。

Investors should also pay attention to the openings-to-unemployed ratio, which indicates the number of job openings available per unemployed worker. A drop closer to 1.0 (from 1.1 in November) would suggest the labour market is stabilising, with fewer positions chasing workers.

投资者还应注意开放与未雇用比率，这表明每个失业工人可用的职位空缺数量。接近1.0（11月1.1起）的下降将表明劳动力市场正在稳定，追逐工人的职位较少。

This would be positive news for those hoping for rate cuts, as it indicates that the labour market is cooling without becoming too weak.

对于那些希望降低税率的人来说，这将是积极的消息，因为这表明劳动力市场正在冷却而不会变得太虚弱。

Additionally, investors should note which sectors are driving the job gains. Continued strength in healthcare and government hiring would signal stability in foundational industries, while declines in retail or manufacturing might hint at waning consumer demand.

此外，投资者应注意哪些部门正在推动工作收益。医疗保健和政府招聘的持续实力将表明基础行业的稳定性，而零售或制造业的下降可能会暗示消费者需求减轻。

These trends can offer clues about the broader economy and which areas of the market could see more growth.

这些趋势可以为更广泛的经济提供线索，以及哪些市场可以看到更多的增长。

A hotter-than-expected labour market could lead to short-term turbulence, especially for growth stocks that are sensitive to interest rates.

超过预期的劳动力市场可能会导致短期动荡，尤其是对于对利率敏感的增长股票。

On the other hand, signs of cooling such as fewer job openings or slowing wage growth could reassure investors and help extend the recent market rally. Keep an eye on how big indices like the S&P 500 Index or Nasdaq 100 Index perform after the report drops.

另一方面，冷却的迹象，例如工作空缺或工资增长放缓，可以使投资者放心，并有助于扩大最近的市场集会。请注意报告下降后的大型指数或NASDAQ 100指数的执行方式。

The labour market isn't just a numbers game; it's a window into how businesses and consumers are feeling about the future. If job openings hold steady or rise, it's a sign that companies are optimistic. On the other hand, a sharp drop could indicate caution.

劳动力市场不仅仅是数字游戏。这是企业和消费者对未来的感觉的窗口。如果职位空缺保持稳定或上升，则表明公司乐观。另一方面，尖锐的下降可能表明谨慎。

Ultimately, the December JOLTS report will provide valuable insights into the state of the US labour market and its implications for the economy and investors at large.

最终，12月的震撼报告将为美国劳动力市场状况及其对经济和整个投资者的影响提供宝贵的见解。