JOLTS 12月報告：投資者需要注意

希望在美國美聯儲（美聯儲）降低利率的潛力的投資者正在研究各種傳入的數據點。

Investors are keeping a close eye on the upcoming Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report for December 2024, as it could provide valuable insights into the state of the US labour market and its implications for interest rates.

投資者正在密切關注即將到來的工作空缺和勞動力流動調查（JOLTS）的報告（JOLTS）報告，因為它可以為美國勞動力市場的狀況提供寶貴的見解及其對利率的影響。

The report, scheduled for release on Tuesday, 4 February, is expected to show a slight decrease in job openings compared to the previous month. Forecasts suggest that openings could dip to around 7.64 million, down from 8.1 million in November 2024.

該報告原定於2月4日星期二發布，預計與上個月相比，職位空缺略有下降。預測表明，開口可以降至約764萬，低於2024年11月的810萬。

This moderation in job openings aligns with the recent payroll data for December, which showed a robust addition of 256,000 jobs. The strong job gains, coupled with the anticipated decrease in openings, could indicate that some of the earlier demand for workers has been met.

工作空缺的適度與十二月的最近工資數據相吻合，該數據顯示了256,000個工作崗位。強勁的工作增長，再加上預期的空缺下降，可能表明已經滿足了對工人的一些早期需求。

The hires and quits rates, which offer a snapshot of how smoothly the labour market is functioning, will also be in focus. December's payroll report highlighted sector-specific strength, with 43,000 jobs added in retail and continued growth in healthcare, suggesting robust hiring in consumer-driven and essential industries.

僱用和退出費率也將成為勞動力市場運作方式的快照，也將成為重點。 12月的薪資報告強調了特定部門的實力，零售業增加了43,000個工作崗位，醫療保健的持續增長表明，消費者驅動和基本產業的僱用強勁。

However, hires in professional services and manufacturing will provide crucial insights into whether broader labour demand is holding up. The quits rate, which remained stable at 1.9% in November, reflects worker confidence. When people voluntarily leave their jobs at a higher rate, it signals optimism about finding better opportunities.

但是，專業服務和製造業的僱用將提供至關重要的見解，以了解更廣泛的勞動力需求。退出的率在11月份保持穩定為1.9％，反映了工人的信心。當人們以更高的速度自願離開工作時，它表明對尋找更好的機會的樂觀情緒。

Strong job gains in sectors like retail and hospitality might indicate elevated quits as employees move to higher-paying or more secure roles. A stable quits rate would suggest that the labour market is finding a sustainable balance between supply and demand.

零售和款待等領域的強勁工作收益可能表明，隨著員工轉移到高薪或更安全的角色時，退出的工作升高。穩定的退出率將表明勞動力市場正在供應和需求之間找到可持續的平衡。

The JOLTS report's wage trends will also be closely monitored, especially in light of the December payroll data which revealed continued wage growth, albeit at a moderated pace, easing concerns about inflation.

震撼報告的工資趨勢也將受到密切監控，尤其是鑑於12月份的工資數據顯示，該數據表明工資增長持續增長，儘管以調節速度，這使人們對通貨膨脹有所關注。

With robust hiring, particularly in consumer sectors, the JOLTS report's wage trends will be a critical focus. If wages show signs of stabilising or slowing, it may signal that the labour market is cooling enough to keep inflation in check and, thus, support Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.

隨著強大的招聘，特別是在消費部門的招聘，《震動報告的工資趨勢》將是一個關鍵的重點。如果工資顯示出穩定或放緩的跡象，則可能表明勞動力市場正在冷卻以保持通貨膨脹率，因此支持今年的美聯儲降低速度。

Wages present a delicate balancing act for the Fed. Too much growth could delay rate cuts, while slower wage gains might support the ongoing stock market rally.

工資為美聯儲提供了微妙的平衡行為。太多的增長可能會降低降低，而工資收益較慢可能會支持正在進行的股市集會。

Investors should also pay attention to the openings-to-unemployed ratio, which indicates the number of job openings available per unemployed worker. A drop closer to 1.0 (from 1.1 in November) would suggest the labour market is stabilising, with fewer positions chasing workers.

投資者還應注意開放與未僱用比率，這表明每個失業工人可用的職位空缺數量。接近1.0（11月1.1起）的下降將表明勞動力市場正在穩定，追逐工人的職位較少。

This would be positive news for those hoping for rate cuts, as it indicates that the labour market is cooling without becoming too weak.

對於那些希望降低稅率的人來說，這將是積極的消息，因為這表明勞動力市場正在冷卻而不會變得太虛弱。

Additionally, investors should note which sectors are driving the job gains. Continued strength in healthcare and government hiring would signal stability in foundational industries, while declines in retail or manufacturing might hint at waning consumer demand.

此外，投資者應注意哪些部門正在推動工作收益。醫療保健和政府招聘的持續實力將表明基礎行業的穩定性，而零售或製造業的下降可能會暗示消費者需求減輕。

These trends can offer clues about the broader economy and which areas of the market could see more growth.

這些趨勢可以為更廣泛的經濟提供線索，以及哪些市場可以看到更多的增長。

A hotter-than-expected labour market could lead to short-term turbulence, especially for growth stocks that are sensitive to interest rates.

超過預期的勞動力市場可能會導致短期動盪，尤其是對於對利率敏感的增長股票。

On the other hand, signs of cooling such as fewer job openings or slowing wage growth could reassure investors and help extend the recent market rally. Keep an eye on how big indices like the S&P 500 Index or Nasdaq 100 Index perform after the report drops.

另一方面，冷卻的跡象，例如工作空缺或工資增長放緩，可以使投資者放心，並有助於擴大最近的市場集會。請注意報告下降後的大型指數或NASDAQ 100指數的執行方式。

The labour market isn't just a numbers game; it's a window into how businesses and consumers are feeling about the future. If job openings hold steady or rise, it's a sign that companies are optimistic. On the other hand, a sharp drop could indicate caution.

勞動力市場不僅僅是數字遊戲。這是企業和消費者對未來的感覺的窗口。如果職位空缺保持穩定或上升，則表明公司樂觀。另一方面，尖銳的下降可能表明謹慎。

Ultimately, the December JOLTS report will provide valuable insights into the state of the US labour market and its implications for the economy and investors at large.

最終，12月的震撼報告將為美國勞動力市場狀況及其對經濟和整個投資者的影響提供寶貴的見解。