市场称，1月6日暴徒和丝绸之路创始人是特朗普早期赦免的首选

受监管的预测市场 Kalshi 就当选总统唐纳德·特朗普在入主白宫的第一天可能会赦免谁打开了几个市场

A market for who Donald Trump might pardon has opened on the prediction market platform Kalshi (Image: Alamy)

唐纳德·特朗普可能赦免的市场已经在预测市场平台 Kalshi 上开放（图片来源：Alamy）

Regulated prediction market Kalshi has opened several markets on who President-elect Donald Trump might pardon during his first days in the White House, and users are particularly high on two possibilities.

受监管的预测市场 Kalshi 已经就当选总统唐纳德·特朗普在入主白宫的第一天可能会赦免的人打开了几个市场，用户对两种可能性特别高。

The market, which predicts who Trump will pardon during his first 100 days in office, currently offers 12 different options for potential individuals – or groups – that the former president might target.

市场预测特朗普在上任的头 100 天内会赦免谁，目前为这位前总统可能针对的潜在个人或团体提供了 12 种不同的选择。

Jan. 6 Rioters Are Top Picks for Early Pardons

1 月 6 日暴乱者是提前赦免的首选

Some are relatively unlikely to happen, and the markets reflect this. Contracts on a pardon for Sean “Diddy†Combs – currently facing a slew of sexual crimes dating back to at least 2008 – can be purchased for as little as $0.05, with each paying $1 if Diddy were to receive a pardon during the specified period. Sam Bankman-Fried ($0.06), Young Thug ($0.07), New York City Mayor Eric Adams ($0.09), and “Tiger King†Joe Exotic ($0.11) are also longshots.Â

有些相对不太可能发生，市场也反映了这一点。 “吹牛老爹”肖恩·库姆斯 (Sean “Diddy” Combs) 目前面临一系列性犯罪，至少可以追溯到 2008 年，只需 0.05 美元即可购买一份赦免合同，如果吹牛老爹获得赦免，每人需支付 1 美元在指定期间内。萨姆·班克曼·弗里德（Sam Bankman-Fried，0.06 美元）、Young Thug（0.07 美元）、纽约市市长埃里克·亚当斯（Eric Adams，0.09 美元）和“虎王”乔·异国情调（Joe Exotic，0.11 美元）也都是热门人物。

However, there are a couple options where the market sees a high likelihood of an early pardon. Leading the way is the group “any person convicted of a crime related to entering the Capitol on January 6th, 2021.†Yes shares are trading at $0.89, and even after accounting for the spread between Yes and No contracts, the market is implying an 85 percent chance of such a pardon in Trump’s first 100 days.Â

然而，市场认为有几种选择很可能提前赦免。领先的是“任何因 2021 年 1 月 6 日进入国会大厦相关犯罪而被定罪的人”。 Yes 的股票交易价格为 0.89 美元，即使考虑到 Yes 和 No 合约之间的价差，市场仍然这意味着特朗普在上任的前 100 天内获得赦免的可能性为 85%。

Trump spoke regularly on the campaign trail about how he would pardon some of the January 6 rioters. While he couched his words somewhat by saying he might not pardon a few of the most violent offenders, he has called the rioters on the whole “patriots†who are being treated as “hostages†in jail.Â

特朗普在竞选过程中经常谈到他将如何赦免 1 月 6 日的一些骚乱者。虽然他表达了自己可能不会赦免一些最暴力的罪犯的措辞，但他称所有在监狱中被当作“人质”对待的骚乱者都是“爱国者”。

That makes it sound likely that Trump would issue – at the very least – a few symbolic pardons to some of the 1,500 people charged related to the Capitol attack. That might be more politically palatable than a blanket pardon – something that has recently been criticized even by at least one judge appointed by Trump himself.

这听起来特朗普很可能——至少——对因国会大厦袭击事件而被指控的 1,500 人中的一些人进行一些象征性的赦免。这可能比全面赦免在政治上更容易接受——这种赦免最近甚至受到特朗普本人任命的至少一名法官的批评。

“Blanket pardons for all January 6 defendants or anything close would be beyond frustrating and disappointing, but that’s not my call,†US District Judge Carl Nichols said during a hearing for one Capitol riot defendant on Tuesday. “And the possibility of some pardons, at least, is a very real thing.â€

美国地区法官卡尔·尼科尔斯周二在为一名国会大厦骚乱被告举行的听证会上表示，“对所有 1 月 6 日的被告进行全面赦免或任何接近赦免的行为都将令人沮丧和失望，但这不是我的决定。” “至少，某些赦免的可能性是非常真实的。”

Trump Promised ‘Day One’ Pardon for Silk Road Founder

特朗普承诺“第一天”赦免丝绸之路创始人

The other favorite to earn a pardon is Ross Ulbricht, with Yes shares trading at $0.76. Ulbricht founded the Silk Road online marketplace, which became well known as a market for illegal goods.Â

另一位有望获得赦免的人是罗斯·乌布利希 (Ross Ulbricht)，他的 Yes 股票交易价格为 0.76 美元。乌布利希创立了丝绸之路在线市场，该市场因非法商品市场而闻名。

While Ulbricht has expressed guilt and remorse for his actions, there has been heavy criticism of his sentence of two life terms plus 40 additional years, all without parole – especially considering he is a first-time offender who committed non-violent crimes. Trump promised to commute Ulbricht’s sentence on day one during his presidential campaign.Â

尽管乌布利希对自己的行为表示了愧疚和悔恨，但他被判处两项无期徒刑外加 40 年徒刑，且不得假释，这一判决受到了严厉的批评——特别是考虑到他是一名犯有非暴力犯罪的初犯。特朗普承诺在总统竞选的第一天就为乌布利希减刑。

How many of these pardons Trump will ultimately follow through with is impossible to know. In his first term in office, Trump issued 143 pardons, but just one came during his first year in office, with none in his first 100 days. Like most presidents, he backloaded most of his pardons, issuing 116 in January 2021 – his final month in office.

特朗普最终会实施多少赦免尚不得而知。特朗普在他的第一个任期内发布了 143 项赦免令，但在他上任的第一年里只有一次，而在他上任的头 100 天内就没有赦免一次。与大多数总统一样，他推迟了大部分赦免，在 2021 年 1 月（他任期的最后一个月）发布了 116 项赦免。

Kalshi operates as a prediction market regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the United States. That status came after a legal battle during which the CFTCattempted to halt trading on election betting, one that Kalshi ultimately won in early October.Â

Kalshi 作为一个受美国商品期货交易委员会 (CFTC) 监管的预测市场运营。这一地位是在一场法律战之后产生的，在这场法律战中，CFTC 试图停止选举博彩交易，卡尔希最终在 10 月初赢得了这场法律战。

Other futures markets regulated by the CFTC have also jumped on board to offer election- and politics-based markets. That stands in contrast to unregulated crypto prediction site Polymarket, which saw CEO Shayne Coplan’s apartment raided by agents from the FBI last Wednesday.

其他受美国商品期货交易委员会监管的期货市场也纷纷加入，提供基于选举和政治的市场。这与不受监管的加密货币预测网站 Polymarket 形成鲜明对比，上周三，该网站首席执行官 Shayne Coplan 的公寓遭到联邦调查局特工的突击搜查。