市場稱，1月6日暴徒和絲路創始人是川普早期赦免的首選

受監管的預測市場 Kalshi 就當選總統唐納德·特朗普在入主白宮的第一天可能會赦免誰打開了幾個市場

A market for who Donald Trump might pardon has opened on the prediction market platform Kalshi (Image: Alamy)

唐納德·特朗普可能赦免的市場已經在預測市場平台 Kalshi 上開放（圖片來源：Alamy）

Regulated prediction market Kalshi has opened several markets on who President-elect Donald Trump might pardon during his first days in the White House, and users are particularly high on two possibilities.

受監管的預測市場 Kalshi 已經就當選總統唐納德·川普在入主白宮的第一天可能會赦免的人打開了幾個市場，用戶對兩種可能性特別高。

The market, which predicts who Trump will pardon during his first 100 days in office, currently offers 12 different options for potential individuals – or groups – that the former president might target.

市場預測川普在上任的頭 100 天內會赦免誰，目前為這位前總統可能針對的潛在個人或團體提供了 12 種不同的選擇。

Jan. 6 Rioters Are Top Picks for Early Pardons

1 月 6 日暴亂者是提前赦免的首選

Some are relatively unlikely to happen, and the markets reflect this. Contracts on a pardon for Sean “Diddy†Combs – currently facing a slew of sexual crimes dating back to at least 2008 – can be purchased for as little as $0.05, with each paying $1 if Diddy were to receive a pardon during the specified period. Sam Bankman-Fried ($0.06), Young Thug ($0.07), New York City Mayor Eric Adams ($0.09), and “Tiger King†Joe Exotic ($0.11) are also longshots.Â

有些相對不太可能發生，市場也反映了這一點。 「吹牛老爹」肖恩·庫姆斯(Sean “Diddy” Combs) 目前面臨一系列性犯罪，至少可以追溯到2008 年，只需0.05 美元即可購買一份赦免合同，如果吹牛老爹獲得赦免，每人需支付1 美元在指定期間。山姆·班克曼-弗里德（Sam Bankman-Fried，0.06 美元）、Young Thug（0.07 美元）、紐約市長埃里克·亞當斯（Eric Adams，0.09 美元）和“虎王”喬·異國情調（Joe Exotic，0.11 美元）也都是熱門人物。

However, there are a couple options where the market sees a high likelihood of an early pardon. Leading the way is the group “any person convicted of a crime related to entering the Capitol on January 6th, 2021.†Yes shares are trading at $0.89, and even after accounting for the spread between Yes and No contracts, the market is implying an 85 percent chance of such a pardon in Trump’s first 100 days.Â

然而，市場認為有幾種選擇很可能提前赦免。領先的是「任何因 2021 年 1 月 6 日進入國會大廈相關犯罪而被定罪的人」。川普在上任的前100 天內獲得赦免的可能性為85%。

Trump spoke regularly on the campaign trail about how he would pardon some of the January 6 rioters. While he couched his words somewhat by saying he might not pardon a few of the most violent offenders, he has called the rioters on the whole “patriots†who are being treated as “hostages†in jail.Â

川普在競選過程中經常談到他將如何赦免 1 月 6 日的一些騷亂者。雖然他表達了自己可能不會赦免一些最暴力的罪犯的措辭，但他稱所有在監獄中被當作「人質」對待的騷亂者都是「愛國者」。

That makes it sound likely that Trump would issue – at the very least – a few symbolic pardons to some of the 1,500 people charged related to the Capitol attack. That might be more politically palatable than a blanket pardon – something that has recently been criticized even by at least one judge appointed by Trump himself.

這聽起來川普很可能——至少——對因國會大廈襲擊事件而被指控的 1,500 人中的一些人進行一些象徵性的赦免。這可能比全面赦免在政治上更容易接受——這種赦免最近甚至受到川普本人任命的至少一名法官的批評。

“Blanket pardons for all January 6 defendants or anything close would be beyond frustrating and disappointing, but that’s not my call,†US District Judge Carl Nichols said during a hearing for one Capitol riot defendant on Tuesday. “And the possibility of some pardons, at least, is a very real thing.â€

美國地區法官卡爾·尼科爾斯週二在為一名國會大廈騷亂被告舉行的聽證會上表示，「對所有1 月6 日的被告進行全面赦免或任何接近赦免的行為都將令人沮喪和失望，但這不是我的決定。 “至少，某些赦免的可能性是非常真實的。”

Trump Promised ‘Day One’ Pardon for Silk Road Founder

川普承諾「第一天」赦免絲路創辦人

The other favorite to earn a pardon is Ross Ulbricht, with Yes shares trading at $0.76. Ulbricht founded the Silk Road online marketplace, which became well known as a market for illegal goods.Â

另一位有望獲得赦免的人是羅斯·烏布利希 (Ross Ulbricht)，他的 Yes 股票交易價格為 0.76 美元。烏布利希創立了絲綢之路線上市場，該市場因非法商品市場而聞名。

While Ulbricht has expressed guilt and remorse for his actions, there has been heavy criticism of his sentence of two life terms plus 40 additional years, all without parole – especially considering he is a first-time offender who committed non-violent crimes. Trump promised to commute Ulbricht’s sentence on day one during his presidential campaign.Â

儘管烏布利希對自己的行為表示了愧疚和悔恨，但他被判處兩項無期徒刑外加40 年徒刑，且不得假釋，這一判決受到了嚴厲的批評——特別是考慮到他是一名犯有非暴力犯罪的初犯。川普承諾在總統競選的第一天就為烏布利希減刑。

How many of these pardons Trump will ultimately follow through with is impossible to know. In his first term in office, Trump issued 143 pardons, but just one came during his first year in office, with none in his first 100 days. Like most presidents, he backloaded most of his pardons, issuing 116 in January 2021 – his final month in office.

川普最終會實施多少赦免尚不得而知。川普在第一個任期內發布了 143 項赦免令，但在他上任的第一年裡只發布了一次赦免令，上任後的前 100 天更是沒有赦免一次。與大多數總統一樣，他推遲了大部分赦免，在 2021 年 1 月（他任期的最後一個月）發布了 116 項赦免。

Kalshi operates as a prediction market regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the United States. That status came after a legal battle during which the CFTCattempted to halt trading on election betting, one that Kalshi ultimately won in early October.Â

Kalshi 作為一個受美國商品期貨交易委員會 (CFTC) 監管的預測市場運作。這一地位是在一場法律戰之後產生的，在這場法律戰中，CFTC 試圖停止選舉博彩交易，卡爾希最終在 10 月初贏得了這場法律戰。

Other futures markets regulated by the CFTC have also jumped on board to offer election- and politics-based markets. That stands in contrast to unregulated crypto prediction site Polymarket, which saw CEO Shayne Coplan’s apartment raided by agents from the FBI last Wednesday.

其他受美國商品期貨交易委員會監管的期貨市場也紛紛加入，提供基於選舉和政治的市場。這與不受監管的加密貨​​幣預測網站 Polymarket 形成鮮明對比，上週三，該網站執行長 Shayne Coplan 的公寓遭到聯邦調查局特工的突襲搜查。