印度的加密货币格局在 2024 年选举后不太可能发生重大变化

在即将到来的 2024 年印度大选中，行业专家预测，无论结果如何，该国限制性的加密货币政策都不太可能改变。印度人民党和印度共产党这两个主要政党都没有在宣言中优先考虑加密货币。然而，卢比的增长和 G20 框架等发展可能会导致 2024 年底后逐步调整政策。

India's Stringent Cryptocurrency Policies Unlikely to Change Post-2024 Elections

印度严格的加密货币政策不太可能在 2024 年选举后改变

As India gears up for its highly anticipated general elections in 2024, industry observers express skepticism over the likelihood of significant changes in the country's restrictive cryptocurrency policies, despite the burgeoning growth of the digital asset ecosystem.

随着印度为备受期待的 2024 年大选做准备，尽管数字资产生态系统蓬勃发展，但行业观察人士对该国限制性加密货币政策发生重大变化的可能性表示怀疑。

Pre-Election Landscape and Policy Trends

选前形势和政策趋势

With a comfortable lead in pre-election polls, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) is widely expected to retain power. Notably, neither the BJP nor the main opposition alliance, the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), has prioritized cryptocurrency regulation in their manifestos.

总理纳伦德拉·莫迪领导的印度人民党 (BJP) 在选前民意调查中遥遥领先，人们普遍预计该党将继续掌权。值得注意的是，印度人民党和主要反对派联盟印度国家发展包容性联盟（INDIA）都没有在宣言中优先考虑加密货币监管。

Currently, India's cryptocurrency regulatory framework consists of strict tax regulations, including a 30% profit tax and a 1% tax withheld at source. Anti-money laundering compliance requirements have also hindered the growth of the digital asset ecosystem.

目前，印度的加密货币监管框架由严格的税收法规组成，包括30%的利润税和1%的源泉扣缴税。反洗钱合规要求也阻碍了数字资产生态系统的发展。

Lack of Political Momentum

缺乏政治动力

Despite the growing popularity of cryptocurrencies, major political parties have refrained from explicitly addressing the issue. While the Congress party has hinted at the potential of digital ledgers for farmers, the BJP's manifesto focuses on cybersecurity and digital public infrastructure without specific references to cryptocurrencies.

尽管加密货币越来越受欢迎，但主要政党都没有明确解决这个问题。尽管国大党暗示了数字账本对农民的潜力，但印度人民党的宣言重点关注网络安全和数字公共基础设施，但没有具体提及加密货币。

Post-Election Outlook

选举后展望

Analysts and industry insiders generally anticipate the status quo to continue after the elections. Modi's expected victory is unlikely to bring about immediate changes in cryptocurrency policy. Even in the unlikely event of an opposition alliance victory, crypto policy would likely take a backseat to more pressing issues.

分析师和业内人士普遍预计选举后这种现状将持续下去。莫迪的预期胜利不太可能立即改变加密货币政策。即使反对派联盟获胜（不太可能发生），加密货币政策也可能会退居次要地位，让位于更紧迫的问题。

Signs of Gradual Transition

逐渐转变的迹象

However, there are indications that the government may adopt a more cautious approach towards digital assets in the future. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's recent remarks and India's initiative to develop a G20 framework for crypto policies suggest a gradual but cautious approach to regulating the industry.

不过，有迹象表明，未来政府可能会对数字资产采取更加谨慎的态度。财政部长 Nirmala Sitharaman 最近的言论和印度制定 G20 加密货币政策框架的倡议表明，该行业的监管应采取渐进但谨慎的态度。

Conclusion

结论

While the 2024 elections are unlikely to bring about sweeping changes in India's cryptocurrency policies, the government's recent initiatives indicate a possible shift towards a more nuanced approach. The full extent of this transition remains uncertain, with any significant policy changes not expected until at least the end of 2024.

虽然 2024 年的选举不太可能给印度的加密货币政策带来彻底的变化，但政府最近的举措表明可能会转向更细致的做法。这一转变的整体范围仍不确定，预计至少要到 2024 年底才会出现任何重大政策变化。

In the meantime, the Indian cryptocurrency ecosystem remains a vibrant but cautious market, with investors and businesses operating within the existing regulatory framework. As the global landscape of cryptocurrency regulation continues to evolve, India's approach will undoubtedly be shaped by both domestic and international developments.

与此同时，印度加密货币生态系统仍然是一个充满活力但谨慎的市场，投资者和企业在现有的监管框架内运营。随着全球加密货币监管格局的不断发展，印度的做法无疑将受到国内和国际发展的影响。