印度的加密貨幣格局在 2024 年選舉後不太可能發生重大變化

在即將到來的 2024 年印度大選中，產業專家預測，無論結果如何，該國限制性的加密貨幣政策都不太可能改變。印度人民黨和印度共產黨這兩個主要政黨都沒有在宣言中優先考慮加密貨幣。然而，盧比的成長和 G20 框架等發展可能會導致 2024 年底後逐步調整政策。

India's Stringent Cryptocurrency Policies Unlikely to Change Post-2024 Elections

印度嚴格的加密貨幣政策不太可能在 2024 年選舉後改變

As India gears up for its highly anticipated general elections in 2024, industry observers express skepticism over the likelihood of significant changes in the country's restrictive cryptocurrency policies, despite the burgeoning growth of the digital asset ecosystem.

隨著印度為備受期待的 2024 年大選做準備，儘管數位資產生態系統蓬勃發展，但產業觀察家對該國限制性加密貨幣政策發生重大變化的可能性表示懷疑。

Pre-Election Landscape and Policy Trends

選前情勢與政策趨勢

With a comfortable lead in pre-election polls, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) is widely expected to retain power. Notably, neither the BJP nor the main opposition alliance, the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA), has prioritized cryptocurrency regulation in their manifestos.

總理莫迪領導的印度人民黨 (BJP) 在選前民調中遙遙領先，人們普遍預計該黨將繼續掌權。值得注意的是，印度人民黨和主要反對派聯盟印度國家發展包容性聯盟（INDIA）都沒有在宣言中優先考慮加密貨幣監管。

Currently, India's cryptocurrency regulatory framework consists of strict tax regulations, including a 30% profit tax and a 1% tax withheld at source. Anti-money laundering compliance requirements have also hindered the growth of the digital asset ecosystem.

目前，印度的加密貨幣監管架構由嚴格的稅收法規組成，包括30%的利潤稅和1%的來源扣繳稅。反洗錢合規要求也阻礙了數位資產生態系統的發展。

Lack of Political Momentum

缺乏政治動力

Despite the growing popularity of cryptocurrencies, major political parties have refrained from explicitly addressing the issue. While the Congress party has hinted at the potential of digital ledgers for farmers, the BJP's manifesto focuses on cybersecurity and digital public infrastructure without specific references to cryptocurrencies.

儘管加密貨幣越來越受歡迎，但主要政黨都沒有明確解決這個問題。儘管國大黨暗示了數位帳本對農民的潛力，但印度人民黨的宣言重點關注網路安全和數位公共基礎設施，但沒有具體提及加密貨幣。

Post-Election Outlook

選舉後展望

Analysts and industry insiders generally anticipate the status quo to continue after the elections. Modi's expected victory is unlikely to bring about immediate changes in cryptocurrency policy. Even in the unlikely event of an opposition alliance victory, crypto policy would likely take a backseat to more pressing issues.

分析師和業內人士普遍預期選舉後這種現狀將持續下去。莫迪的預期勝利不太可能立即改變加密貨幣政策。即使反對派聯盟獲勝（不太可能發生），加密貨幣政策也可能退居次要地位，讓位給更緊迫的問題。

Signs of Gradual Transition

逐漸轉變的跡象

However, there are indications that the government may adopt a more cautious approach towards digital assets in the future. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's recent remarks and India's initiative to develop a G20 framework for crypto policies suggest a gradual but cautious approach to regulating the industry.

不過，有跡象表明，未來政府可能會對數位資產採取更謹慎的態度。財政部長 Nirmala Sitharaman 最近的言論和印度製定 G20 加密貨幣政策框架的倡議表明，該行業的監管應採取漸進但謹慎的態度。

Conclusion

結論

While the 2024 elections are unlikely to bring about sweeping changes in India's cryptocurrency policies, the government's recent initiatives indicate a possible shift towards a more nuanced approach. The full extent of this transition remains uncertain, with any significant policy changes not expected until at least the end of 2024.

雖然 2024 年的選舉不太可能為印度的加密貨幣政策帶來徹底的變化，但政府最近的舉措表明可能會轉向更細緻的做法。這項轉變的整體範圍仍不確定，預計至少要到 2024 年底才會出現任何重大政策變化。

In the meantime, the Indian cryptocurrency ecosystem remains a vibrant but cautious market, with investors and businesses operating within the existing regulatory framework. As the global landscape of cryptocurrency regulation continues to evolve, India's approach will undoubtedly be shaped by both domestic and international developments.

同時，印度加密貨幣生態系統仍然是一個充滿活力但謹慎的市場，投資者和企業在現有的監管框架內運作。隨著全球加密貨幣監管格局的不斷發展，印度的做法無疑將受到國內和國際發展的影響。