印度预计季风将高于正常水平，平衡希望和担忧

印度气象部门 (IMD) 预测 6 月至 9 月西南季风将高于正常水平，为长期平均水平的 106%。这引发了人们对农业部门增长复苏、农业收入和农村工资增长改善的希望。然而，由于全球变暖，极端降雨天的可能性增加，带来洪水和基础设施损坏的风险，导致各州和中央政府保持警惕和做好准备。 IMD 将更新 5 月份的预测，更清晰地描述降雨分布。厄尔尼诺现象可能会减弱，而拉尼娜现象预计会在季风后半段出现，从而影响降雨模式。尽管预计印度大部分地区的降雨量将高于正常水平，但均匀的降雨量，而不是极端的倾盆大雨，对于控制粮食价格至关重要。

India Braces for Above-Normal Monsoon, Balancing Hopes and Concerns

印度为高于正常水平的季风做好准备，平衡希望和担忧

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a hopeful forecast for the June-September southwest monsoon, predicting rainfall at 106% of the long-period average. This projection has sparked optimism for a resurgence in agricultural growth, which has faced challenges due to uneven rainfall patterns in recent years.

印度气象部门（IMD）对6月至9月的西南季风发布了乐观的预测，预计降雨量将达到长期平均水平的106%。这一预测激发了人们对农业增长复苏的乐观情绪，近年来农业因降雨模式不均匀而面临挑战。

Positive Implications for Agriculture

对农业的积极影响

The monsoon is vital for India's rain-fed Kharif crop season, which accounts for half of the country's agricultural output. A favorable monsoon season can lead to increased farm productivity, boosted income for farmers, and higher rural wage growth. This in turn stimulates consumption of essential goods like soaps and hair oils, revitalizing the economy.

季风对于印度雨养的哈里夫作物季节至关重要，该作物占该国农业产量的一半。有利的季风季节可以提高农业生产力、增加农民收入以及提高农村工资增长。这反过来又刺激了肥皂和发油等必需品的消费，从而重振了经济。

Potential Risks and Mitigation

潜在风险和缓解措施

While the IMD's forecast offers hope, it also highlights potential risks associated with the monsoon. Extreme rainfall events have become more prevalent in recent years due to the impact of global warming. The IMD has assigned a 30% probability of "excess" rainfall, exceeding 110% of the long-period average (LPA), and a 61% probability of above-normal rainfall, exceeding 104% of the LPA.

尽管 IMD 的预测带来了希望，但它也强调了与季风相关的潜在风险。近年来，受全球变暖的影响，极端降雨事件变得更加普遍。 IMD 指定“过量”降雨的概率为 30%，超过长期平均值 (LPA) 的 110%，降雨量高于正常水平的概率为 61%，超过 LPA 的 104%。

These extreme rainfall events pose significant challenges, including flooding, loss of life, damage to infrastructure, and crop devastation. State and central governments have been urged to remain vigilant and prepare for emergency response measures to mitigate these risks.

这些极端降雨事件带来了重大挑战，包括洪水、人员伤亡、基础设施损坏和农作物毁坏。州和中央政府被敦促保持警惕，并准备采取紧急应对措施，以减轻这些风险。

IMD Forecast Updates

IMD 预测更新

The IMD will issue an updated forecast in late May, just before the monsoon makes landfall in Kerala. This updated forecast will provide a more precise outlook on regional distribution of rainfall and an assessment of the potential impact on different agricultural zones.

IMD 将于五月下旬季风登陆喀拉拉邦之前发布最新预报。此次更新的预测将为降雨区域分布提供更准确的展望，并评估对不同农业区的潜在影响。

El Niño, La Niña, and Indian Ocean Dipole

厄尔尼诺、拉尼娜和印度洋偶极子

The IMD attributes the above-normal rainfall forecast to a combination of factors, primarily the weakening of El Niño conditions and the likelihood of developing La Niña conditions during the second half of the monsoon season. El Niño, characterized by warmer sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, tends to suppress rainfall, while La Niña is associated with increased precipitation. Additionally, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which cools the water more than normal, is expected to contribute to enhanced rainfall.

IMD将高于正常水平的降雨量预测归因于多种因素，主要是厄尔尼诺现象的减弱以及季风季节后半段出现拉尼娜现象的可能性。厄尔尼诺现象的特点是太平洋海面温度升高，往往会抑制降雨，而拉尼娜现象则与降雨量增加有关。此外，正的印度洋偶极子使海水比正常情况冷却得更多，预计将有助于增加降雨量。

Impact on Food Prices

对食品价格的影响

Fluctuating rainfall patterns can have a significant impact on food prices. In March, retail food inflation was 8.5%, driven by higher prices for cereals, vegetables, and pulses. Uneven rainfall during the 2024 monsoon season could disrupt production of these commodities, leading to further price increases and straining household budgets.

降雨模式的波动会对食品价格产生重大影响。 3 月份，受谷物、蔬菜和豆类价格上涨的推动，零售食品通胀率为 8.5%。 2024 年季风季节降雨不均匀可能会扰乱这些商品的生产，导致价格进一步上涨并导致家庭预算紧张。

However, the IMD's forecast anticipates above-normal rainfall in most parts of India, excluding portions of the North-west, East, and North-east regions. Adequate and well-distributed rainfall, rather than extreme downpours, will be crucial for maintaining stability in food prices.

然而，国际管理发展学院的预测预计印度大部分地区的降雨量将高于正常水平，但西北、东部和东北部地区的部分地区除外。充足且分布均匀的降雨，而不是极端的倾盆大雨，对于维持粮食价格的稳定至关重要。

Conclusion

结论

While the IMD's monsoon forecast brings a glimmer of hope for agricultural growth, it also underscores the importance of preparedness and vigilance. The potential for extreme rainfall events poses significant challenges that require proactive measures from both governments and the public. By mitigating these risks and ensuring an equitable distribution of rainfall, India can harness the power of the monsoon to drive economic prosperity and ensure food security for its population.

尽管IMD的季风预报给农业增长带来了一线希望，但它也强调了做好准备和保持警惕的重要性。极端降雨事件的可能性带来了重大挑战，需要政府和公众采取积极措施。通过减轻这些风险并确保降雨量的公平分配，印度可以利用季风的力量来推动经济繁荣并确保其人民的粮食安全。