印度預計季風將高於正常水平，平衡希望和擔憂

印度氣象部門 (IMD) 預測 6 月至 9 月西南季風將高於正常水平，為長期平均水平的 106%。這引發了人們對農業部門成長復甦、農業收入和農村工資成長改善的希望。然而，由於全球暖化，極端降雨天的可能性增加，帶來洪水和基礎設施損壞的風險，導致各州和中央政府保持警惕和準備。 IMD 將更新 5 月的預測，更清晰地描述降雨分佈。厄爾尼諾現象可能會減弱，而拉尼娜現象預計會在季風後半段出現，影響降雨模式。儘管印度大部分地區的降雨量預計將高於正常水平，但均勻的降雨量，而不是極端的傾盆大雨，對於控制糧食價格至關重要。

India Braces for Above-Normal Monsoon, Balancing Hopes and Concerns

印度為高於正常水平的季風做好準備，平衡希望和擔憂

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a hopeful forecast for the June-September southwest monsoon, predicting rainfall at 106% of the long-period average. This projection has sparked optimism for a resurgence in agricultural growth, which has faced challenges due to uneven rainfall patterns in recent years.

印度氣象部門（IMD）對6月至9月的西南季風發布了樂觀的預測，預計降雨量將達到長期平均的106%。這項預測激發了人們對農業成長復甦的樂觀情緒，近年來農業因降雨模式不均勻而面臨挑戰。

Positive Implications for Agriculture

對農業的正面影響

The monsoon is vital for India's rain-fed Kharif crop season, which accounts for half of the country's agricultural output. A favorable monsoon season can lead to increased farm productivity, boosted income for farmers, and higher rural wage growth. This in turn stimulates consumption of essential goods like soaps and hair oils, revitalizing the economy.

季風對於印度雨養的哈里夫作物季節至關重要，該作物佔該國農業產量的一半。有利的季風季節可以提高農業生產力、增加農民收入以及提高農村工資成長。這反過來又刺激了肥皂和髮油等必需品的消費，從而重振了經濟。

Potential Risks and Mitigation

潛在風險和緩解措施

While the IMD's forecast offers hope, it also highlights potential risks associated with the monsoon. Extreme rainfall events have become more prevalent in recent years due to the impact of global warming. The IMD has assigned a 30% probability of "excess" rainfall, exceeding 110% of the long-period average (LPA), and a 61% probability of above-normal rainfall, exceeding 104% of the LPA.

儘管 IMD 的預測帶來了希望，但它也強調了與季風相關的潛在風險。近年來，受全球暖化的影響，極端降雨事件變得更加普遍。 IMD 指定「過量」降雨的機率為 30%，超過長期平均值 (LPA) 的 110%，降雨量高於正常水平的機率為 61%，超過 LPA 的 104%。

These extreme rainfall events pose significant challenges, including flooding, loss of life, damage to infrastructure, and crop devastation. State and central governments have been urged to remain vigilant and prepare for emergency response measures to mitigate these risks.

這些極端降雨事件帶來了重大挑戰，包括洪水、人員傷亡、基礎設施損壞和農作物毀損。州和中央政府被敦促保持警惕，並準備採取緊急應對措施，以減輕這些風險。

IMD Forecast Updates

IMD 預測更新

The IMD will issue an updated forecast in late May, just before the monsoon makes landfall in Kerala. This updated forecast will provide a more precise outlook on regional distribution of rainfall and an assessment of the potential impact on different agricultural zones.

IMD 將於五月下旬季風登陸喀拉拉邦之前發布最新預報。此次更新的預測將為降雨區域分佈提供更準確的展望，並評估對不同農業區的潛在影響。

El Niño, La Niña, and Indian Ocean Dipole

厄爾尼諾、拉尼娜和印度洋偶極子

The IMD attributes the above-normal rainfall forecast to a combination of factors, primarily the weakening of El Niño conditions and the likelihood of developing La Niña conditions during the second half of the monsoon season. El Niño, characterized by warmer sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, tends to suppress rainfall, while La Niña is associated with increased precipitation. Additionally, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which cools the water more than normal, is expected to contribute to enhanced rainfall.

IMD將高於正常水平的降雨量預測歸因於多種因素，主要是厄爾尼諾現象的減弱以及季風季節後半段出現拉尼娜現象的可能性。厄爾尼諾現象的特徵是太平洋海面溫度升高，往往會抑制降雨，而拉尼娜現象則與降雨量增加有關。此外，正的印度洋偶極子使海水比正常情況冷卻得更多，預計將有助於增加降雨量。

Impact on Food Prices

對食品價格的影響

Fluctuating rainfall patterns can have a significant impact on food prices. In March, retail food inflation was 8.5%, driven by higher prices for cereals, vegetables, and pulses. Uneven rainfall during the 2024 monsoon season could disrupt production of these commodities, leading to further price increases and straining household budgets.

降雨模式的波動會對食品價格產生重大影響。 3 月份，受穀物、蔬菜和豆類價格上漲的推動，零售食品通膨率為 8.5%。 2024 年季風季節降雨不均可能會擾亂這些商品的生產，導致價格進一步上漲並導致家庭預算緊張。

However, the IMD's forecast anticipates above-normal rainfall in most parts of India, excluding portions of the North-west, East, and North-east regions. Adequate and well-distributed rainfall, rather than extreme downpours, will be crucial for maintaining stability in food prices.

然而，國際管理髮展學院的預測預計印度大部分地區的降雨量將高於正常水平，但西北、東部和東北部地區的部分地區除外。充足且分佈均勻的降雨，而不是極端的傾盆大雨，對於維持糧食價格的穩定至關重要。

Conclusion

結論

While the IMD's monsoon forecast brings a glimmer of hope for agricultural growth, it also underscores the importance of preparedness and vigilance. The potential for extreme rainfall events poses significant challenges that require proactive measures from both governments and the public. By mitigating these risks and ensuring an equitable distribution of rainfall, India can harness the power of the monsoon to drive economic prosperity and ensure food security for its population.

儘管IMD的季風預報為農業成長帶來了一線希望，但它也強調了做好準備和保持警惕的重要性。極端降雨事件的可能性帶來了重大挑戰，需要政府和公眾採取積極措施。透過減輕這些風險並確保降雨量的公平分配，印度可以利用季風的力量來推動經濟繁榮並確保其人民的糧食安全。