ICO 2.0：去中心化资本形成的重新出现

2025 年美国的监管改革和全球加密货币对抗的解冻将迎来新一代去中心化资本形成

After a period of regulatory uncertainty and decline, a new era of decentralized capital formation is poised to emerge in 2025, driven by a shift in regulatory stance, market dynamics, and technological advancements. This evolution will differ significantly from the initial coin offering (ICO) boom of 2017 and will be characterized by a focus on value accrual, regulatory compliance, and a wider range of investment opportunities.

经过一段时期的监管不确定性和衰退之后，在监管立场、市场动态和技术进步的转变的推动下，去中心化资本形成的新时代将于 2025 年出现。这一演变将与 2017 年的首次代币发行 (ICO) 热潮显着不同，其特点是关注价值累积、监管合规性和更广泛的投资机会。

During the 2010s, crypto struggled to find a productive use case for Bitcoin and altcoins until Ethereum smart contracts enabled early-stage teams to raise capital from supporters around the globe. This led to a surge in ICOs, which offered a novel way to access early-stage investment opportunities that were typically reserved for venture capitalists (VCs).

在 2010 年代，加密货币一直在努力寻找比特币和山寨币的高效用例，直到以太坊智能合约使早期团队能够从全球支持者那里筹集资金。这导致了 ICO 的激增，它提供了一种获取早期投资机会的新颖方式，而这些机会通常是为风险投资家 (VC) 保留的。

However, ICOs faced increasing scrutiny from regulators, who argued that many tokens failed the Howey test and were thus securities offerings. This led to a crackdown on ICOs, with many being shut down or forced to return funds. By 2020, ICOs had slowed to a trickle, and 88% of ICO tokens were trading below issuance price.

然而，ICO 面临着监管机构越来越严格的审查，监管机构认为许多代币未能通过 Howey 测试，因此属于证券发行。这导致了对 ICO 的打击，许多 ICO 被关闭或被迫退还资金。到 2020 年，ICO 的速度已放缓至涓涓细流，88% 的 ICO 代币交易价格低于发行价。

Fast forward to 2025 and we can see the convergence of some important inputs that allow for the re-emergence of compelling investment opportunities, but with very different characteristics from ICO 1.0.

快进到 2025 年，我们可以看到一些重要投入的融合，这些投入使得引人注目的投资机会重新出现，但其特征与 ICO 1.0 截然不同。

The ingredients of ICO 2.0

ICO 2.0 的组成部分

1. Updated regulatory stance

1. 更新监管立场

I predict that value accrual will be a fundamental part of the “why” of investing in tokens this time around. Entrepreneurs and investors in the space have matured and are ready to collectively admit that there is an expectation of profit with most tokens. In fact, one could argue that the obfuscation of how token holders would be compensated as a hand-wavey attempt to sidestep the Howey test was the primary problem the first time around.

我预测，价值累积将是这一次投资代币的“原因”的基本部分。该领域的企业家和投资者已经成熟，并准备好集体承认大多数代币都有盈利预期。事实上，有人可能会争辩说，对代币持有者如何获得补偿的混淆，作为回避 Howey 测试的一种手动尝试，是第一次出现的主要问题。

KYC/AML will be focused on on-ramps and off-ramps such as exchanges and L2 bridges, and reasonably concentrate at the point of realization of gains back into fiat, which is the appropriate light touch that should satisfy reasonable regulators.

KYC/AML将专注于交易所和L2桥等入口和出口，并合理地集中在将收益变回法币的点上，这是应该满足合理监管机构的适当的轻触。

2. Market turnover

2、市场成交量

We are seeing the rapid decline of certain mid-market companies that could remake their business models by becoming community-led and decentralized. For example, mid-size media companies including newspapers and magazines are an obvious business model that could be greatly improved by the use of a token economy to drive citizen journalists towards greater professionalism.

我们看到某些中型市场公司正在迅速衰落，这些公司可以通过社区主导和去中心化来重塑其商业模式。例如，包括报纸和杂志在内的中型媒体公司是一种明显的商业模式，可以通过使用代币经济来极大地改善这种模式，以推动公民记者走向更高的专业水平。

3. Crypto's progression

3. 加密货币的进展

In 2017 we had ICO-click-races on very rough UI/UX interfaces, pre-launch SAFT (Simple Agreement for Future Tokens) rounds going to a handful of VCs and years of waiting until a live network launch. No one should be surprised then that the majority of ICO projects died. The Darwinian nature of any emerging technology is such that most will perish but the few that survive go on to create great value (spoiler alert: >90% of AI projects are going away as well).

2017 年，我们在非常粗糙的 UI/UX 界面上进行了 ICO 点击竞赛，启动前的 SAFT（未来代币简单协议）轮次将由少数风险投资公司参与，并等待数年才能上线网络。对于大多数 ICO 项目的失败，没有人应该感到惊讶。任何新兴技术的达尔文本质都是这样的：大多数技术都会消亡，但少数幸存下来的技术会继续创造巨大的价值（剧透警告：> 90% 的人工智能项目也将消失）。

Crypto now has decent on-boarding and good user-facing apps, and most importantly, the community has shown an uncanny ability to publicly call out nonsense and root out bad actors far better than government oversight ever has. The light of open decentralized ledgers is a particularly strong disinfectant.

加密货币现在拥有不错的入门和良好的面向用户的应用程序，最重要的是，社区已经表现出了一种不可思议的能力，可以公开指出胡言乱语并根除不良行为者，其效果远远好于政府的监督。开放式去中心化账本的光芒是一种特别强大的消毒剂。

Implications and predictions

影响和预测

So what does all this mean for the crypto community?

那么这一切对加密社区意味着什么呢？

This new wave of decentralized capital formation will dwarf the approximately $20 billion of capital allocated in ICO 1.0 in 2017 and 2018. Over the coming years, we will see hundreds of billions in total capital formation across DeFi, NFTs, RWAs and a plethora of other crypto primitives.

这波新的去中心化资本形成浪潮将使 2017 年和 2018 年 ICO 1.0 分配的约 200 亿美元资本相形见绌。在未来几年，我们将看到 DeFi、NFT、RWA 和众多其他领域的资本形成总额达到数千亿美元。加密原语。

M&A activity will represent a significant component of on-chain capital formation activity. Whether it is traditional businesses getting serious about crypto and buying up lost ground, like the Stripe-Bridge deal or EVM L2s joining forces as they recognize that only a handful will survive to be significant, we will see billions of dollars worth of M&A activity in the coming year.

并购活动将成为链上资本形成活动的重要组成部分。无论是传统企业认真对待加密货币并收复失地，例如 Stripe-Bridge 交易，还是 EVM L2 因认识到只有少数企业能够生存下来而联手，我们将看到价值数十亿美元的并购活动来年。

In addition, mid-market Web2 and legacy companies will seek to reinvent their business model now that they can use token-incentivization under less hostile circumstances. We are seeing companies in energy, media, art and cellular communications get serious about token-incentivization to turn their value chain into an open marketplace, as well as rapidly acquire customers and use cheap(er) labour.

此外，中端市场的 Web2 和传统公司将寻求重塑其商业模式，因为他们可以在不太敌对的环境下使用代币激励。我们看到能源、媒体、艺术和移动通信领域的公司认真对待代币激励，将其价值链转变为开放市场，并快速获取客户并使用更廉价的劳动力。

I am also optimistic that regenerative financing, blending a capitalistic mandate and philanthropic mandate, will find its place. And I am very excited about how crypto can change paradigms in bridging reasonable returns on capital with social goals in more compelling ways than we've seen to date.

我还乐观地认为，融合了资本主义使命和慈善使命的再生融资将找到自己的位置。我对加密货币如何改变范式，以比我们迄今为止看到的更引人注目的方式将合理的资本回报与社会目标联系起来感到非常兴奋。

I predict that we will see a range of novel ways to choose ICO participants, whether as a reward to LPs, relying on reputation based on on-chain activity or via the usage of certain proofs. The byproduct of this is that we will see better balance

我预测我们将看到一系列新的方式来选择 ICO 参与者，无论是作为对 LP 的奖励、依赖基于链上活动的声誉还是通过使用某些证明。这样做的副产品是我们将看到更好的平衡