Hal Finney 16 年前的比特币价格预测再现，目标为每枚 1000 万美元

最著名的早期比特币先驱之一哈尔·芬尼 (Hal Finney) 的一项非凡预测在 16 年后重新浮出水面。

Hal Finney, an early Bitcoin pioneer and programmer, made a bold prediction in 2009: if Bitcoin becomes the world's dominant payment system, each coin could be worth $10 million.

比特币早期先驱和程序员哈尔·芬尼 (Hal Finney) 在 2009 年做出了大胆预测：如果比特币成为世界主导的支付系统，每枚比特币可能价值 1000 万美元。

Finney's prediction resurfaced after 16 years thanks to Bitcoin historian Pete Rizzo, who shared a snippet of Finney's discussion on the BitcoinTalk forum.

芬尼的预测在 16 年后再次出现，这要归功于比特币历史学家皮特·里佐 (Pete Rizzo)，他在 BitcoinTalk 论坛上分享了芬尼的讨论片段。

In the discussion, which took place on Jan. 10, 2009, a day after Satoshi Nakamoto released version 0.1 of the Bitcoin software, seven days after Bitcoin's genesis block was mined by its pseudonymous creator and a few days after Finney himself received the first Bitcoin transaction, the computer scientist laid out his reasoning for the $10 million price target.

讨论发生在 2009 年 1 月 10 日，即中本聪发布比特币软件 0.1 版本的第二天、比特币的创世块被其假名创建者开采 7 天后、芬尼本人收到第一个比特币几天后交易中，这位计算机科学家阐述了他对 1000 万美元目标价的推理。

Finney's logic was based on the assumption that if Bitcoin becomes the world's dominant payment system, its value should be equal to the total value of all the wealth in the world.

芬尼的逻辑基于这样的假设：如果比特币成为世界上占主导地位的支付系统，那么它的价值应该等于世界上所有财富的总价值。

"As an amusing thought experiment, imagine that Bitcoin is successful and becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world," Finney wrote.

“作为一个有趣的思想实验，想象一下比特币是成​​功的，并成为全世界使用的主要支付系统，”芬尼写道。

"Then the total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all the wealth in the world. Current estimates of total worldwide household wealth that I have found range from $100 trillion to $300 trillion. With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million."

“那么货币的总价值应该等于世界上所有财富的总价值。我发现目前对全球家庭财富总额的估计范围在 100 万亿美元到 300 万亿美元之间。拥有 2000 万枚硬币，这意味着每个人硬币价值约1000万美元。”

Finney's prediction has been a subject of fascination within the Bitcoin community, especially considering that when he made the prediction, Bitcoin was still valued at $0.

芬尼的预测一直是比特币社区中一个令人着迷的话题，特别是考虑到他做出预测时，比特币的价值仍为 0 美元。

At the current price of $93,726, Bitcoin is still far from reaching Finney's $10 million target, but his prediction continues to inspire long-term faith in the cryptocurrency among its proponents.

目前比特币价格为 93,726 美元，距离芬尼设定的 1000 万美元目标还很远，但他的预测继续激发其支持者对加密货币的长期信心。