Hal Finney 16 年前的比特幣價格預測再現，目標為每枚 1000 萬美元

最著名的早期比特幣先驅之一 Hal Finney 的一項非凡預測在 16 年後重新浮出水面。

Hal Finney, an early Bitcoin pioneer and programmer, made a bold prediction in 2009: if Bitcoin becomes the world's dominant payment system, each coin could be worth $10 million.

比特幣早期先驅和程式設計師 Hal Finney 在 2009 年做出了大膽預測：如果比特幣成為世界上占主導地位的支付系統，每枚比特幣可能價值 1000 萬美元。

Finney's prediction resurfaced after 16 years thanks to Bitcoin historian Pete Rizzo, who shared a snippet of Finney's discussion on the BitcoinTalk forum.

芬尼的預測在 16 年後再次出現，這要歸功於比特幣歷史學家皮特·里佐 (Pete Rizzo)，他在 BitcoinTalk 論壇上分享了芬尼的討論片段。

In the discussion, which took place on Jan. 10, 2009, a day after Satoshi Nakamoto released version 0.1 of the Bitcoin software, seven days after Bitcoin's genesis block was mined by its pseudonymous creator and a few days after Finney himself received the first Bitcoin transaction, the computer scientist laid out his reasoning for the $10 million price target.

討論發生在2009 年1 月10 日，即中本聰發布比特幣軟體0.1 版本的第二天、比特幣的創世塊被其假名創建者開採7 天后、芬尼本人收到第一個比特幣幾天後交易中，這位計算機科學家闡述了他對 1000 萬美元目標價的推理。

Finney's logic was based on the assumption that if Bitcoin becomes the world's dominant payment system, its value should be equal to the total value of all the wealth in the world.

芬尼的邏輯是基於這樣的假設：如果比特幣成為世界上占主導地位的支付系統，那麼它的價值應該等於世界上所有財富的總價值。

"As an amusing thought experiment, imagine that Bitcoin is successful and becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world," Finney wrote.

「作為一個有趣的思想實驗，想像一下比特幣是成功的，並成為全世界使用的主要支付系統，」芬尼寫道。

"Then the total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all the wealth in the world. Current estimates of total worldwide household wealth that I have found range from $100 trillion to $300 trillion. With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million."

「那麼貨幣的總價值應該等於世界上所有財富的總價值。我發現目前對全球家庭財富總額的估計範圍在100 兆美元到300 兆美元之間。擁有2,000 萬枚硬幣，這意味著每個人硬幣價值約1000萬美元。

Finney's prediction has been a subject of fascination within the Bitcoin community, especially considering that when he made the prediction, Bitcoin was still valued at $0.

芬尼的預測一直是比特幣社群中一個令人著迷的話題，特別是考慮到他做出預測時，比特幣的價值仍為 0 美元。

At the current price of $93,726, Bitcoin is still far from reaching Finney's $10 million target, but his prediction continues to inspire long-term faith in the cryptocurrency among its proponents.

目前比特幣價格為 93,726 美元，距離芬尼設定的 1,000 萬美元目標還很遠，但他的預測繼續激發其支持者對加密貨幣的長期信心。