尽管猜测越来越大，但延长的XRP诉讼仍未解决

尽管猜测越来越大，但延长的XRP诉讼仍未解决。社区因早期解决案件的可能性而分歧。

Despite the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) dismissing several crypto lawsuits in recent weeks, the fate of the prolonged Ripple case remains shrouded in speculation. As experts weigh in on the potential outcomes, the community is divided over the likelihood of an early settlement.

尽管美国证券交易委员会（SEC）在最近几周驳回了几项加密诉讼，但长期的连锁案的命运仍然笼罩在猜测中。随着专家对潜在结果的影响，社区因早期和解的可能性而分歧。

With many legal minds predicting that the SEC might cancel its appeal under new leadership, this scenario could see the administrative law judge’s (ALJ) ruling stand.

由于许多法律思想预测SEC可能会在新的领导下取消其上诉，因此这种情况可能会看到行政法法官（ALJ）的裁决立场。

However, All Things XRP, a leading XRP advocacy platform on X (formerly Twitter), pointed out that this outcome would still leave the $125 million fine and the injunction on institutional XRP sales, ruled by Judge Analisa Torres, in place.

但是，所有事物XRP是X（以前为Twitter）上的XRP倡导平台，他指出，这一结果仍将留下1.25亿美元的罚款和由Analisa Torres法官裁定的机构XRP销售的禁令。

This outcome, while possible with a 35% likelihood, is complicated by the fact that the injunction would need to be dissolved by the court.

这种结果虽然有可能具有35％的可能性，但由于法院需要解散禁令而变得复杂。

The SEC shutting down its case and applying for an early administrative ruling could also lead to a reduced penalty for Ripple. For instance, instead of a $125 million fine, the agency could accept $75 million as part of a settlement.

SEC关闭其案件并申请早期行政裁决也可能导致对Ripple的罚款。例如，该机构可以接受7500万美元作为和解的一部分，而不是1.25亿美元的罚款。

Moreover, this outcome would depend on Paul Atkins, once confirmed as SEC Chair, advocating for it with the SEC commissioners. With a probability of 30%, this scenario could play out.

此外，这一结果将取决于保罗·阿特金斯（Paul Atkins），曾经被确认为SEC主席，并倡导SEC专员。概率为30％，这种情况可能会出现。

Another potential outcome is the Second Circuit overturning Judge Torres’s ruling, an eventuality that the analyst assigned a 20% possibility.

另一个潜在的结果是第二巡回法院推翻了托雷斯法官的裁决，这是分析师分配了20％的可能性。

In this case, the court might uphold the SEC’s appeal and classify programmatic XRP sales as securities under the Howey Test, leading to a massive fine of over $500 million and an expanded injunction.

在这种情况下，法院可以在Howey测试下维护SEC的上诉并将程序化XRP销售归类为证券，从而导致超过5亿美元的罚款超过5亿美元，并扩大了禁令。

However, prominent legal experts like Jeremy Hogan and MetaLawMan highlighted these intricacies as major obstacles to the lawsuit’s early end.

但是，像杰里米·霍根（Jeremy Hogan）和《金属鹰》（Metalawman）这样的著名法律专家强调了这些复杂性是诉讼早期结束的主要障碍。

According to All Things XRP, Ripple’s cross-appeal could ultimately result in the $125 million fine imposed by Judge Torres being upheld.

根据XRP的所有事物，Ripple的交叉上诉最终可能会导致托雷斯法官被维持的1.25亿美元罚款。

Furthermore, Ripple may succeed in persuading the court to drop the injunction if it manages to demonstrate that there are no ongoing securities law violations.

此外，如果保制者设法证明没有正在进行的证券法违规行为，则Ripple可能会成功说服法院放弃禁令。

This outcome, occurring with a 25% chance, would depend on Ripple's arguments effectively addressing the court's concerns regarding the injunction.

这种结果以25％的机会发生，将取决于有效解决法院对禁令的担忧的论点。

In the bleakest scenario, the SEC might abandon its case against Ripple, effectively nullifying the $125 million fine and seeking court approval to dissolve the injunction. This outcome, assigned a 15% likelihood, could arise in the midst of a broader deregulatory shift.

在最黯淡的情况下，SEC可能会放弃对Ripple的案件，有效地取消了1.25亿美元的罚款，并寻求法院批准以解散禁令。这种结果分配了15％的可能性，可能会在更广泛的放松调节转变中产生。

Finally, there is a possibility of the SEC applying for an early administrative ruling, an action that would require the court's approval.

最后，SEC有可能申请早期行政裁决，这项诉讼将需​​要法院的批准。