儘管猜測越來越大，但延長的XRP訴訟仍未解決

儘管猜測越來越大，但延長的XRP訴訟仍未解決。社區因早期解決案件的可能性而分歧。

Despite the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) dismissing several crypto lawsuits in recent weeks, the fate of the prolonged Ripple case remains shrouded in speculation. As experts weigh in on the potential outcomes, the community is divided over the likelihood of an early settlement.

儘管美國證券交易委員會（SEC）在最近幾週駁回了幾項加密訴訟，但長期的連鎖案的命運仍然籠罩在猜測中。隨著專家對潛在結果的影響，社區因早期和解的可能性而分歧。

With many legal minds predicting that the SEC might cancel its appeal under new leadership, this scenario could see the administrative law judge’s (ALJ) ruling stand.

由於許多法律思想預測SEC可能會在新的領導下取消其上訴，因此這種情況可能會看到行政法法官（ALJ）的裁決立場。

However, All Things XRP, a leading XRP advocacy platform on X (formerly Twitter), pointed out that this outcome would still leave the $125 million fine and the injunction on institutional XRP sales, ruled by Judge Analisa Torres, in place.

但是，所有事物XRP是X（以前為Twitter）上的XRP倡導平台，他指出，這一結果仍將留下1.25億美元的罰款和由Analisa Torres法官裁定的機構XRP銷售的禁令。

This outcome, while possible with a 35% likelihood, is complicated by the fact that the injunction would need to be dissolved by the court.

這種結果雖然有可能具有35％的可能性，但由於法院需要解散禁令而變得複雜。

The SEC shutting down its case and applying for an early administrative ruling could also lead to a reduced penalty for Ripple. For instance, instead of a $125 million fine, the agency could accept $75 million as part of a settlement.

SEC關閉其案件併申請早期行政裁決也可能導致對Ripple的罰款。例如，該機構可以接受7500萬美元作為和解的一部分，而不是1.25億美元的罰款。

Moreover, this outcome would depend on Paul Atkins, once confirmed as SEC Chair, advocating for it with the SEC commissioners. With a probability of 30%, this scenario could play out.

此外，這一結果將取決於保羅·阿特金斯（Paul Atkins），曾經被確認為SEC主席，並倡導SEC專員。概率為30％，這種情況可能會出現。

Another potential outcome is the Second Circuit overturning Judge Torres’s ruling, an eventuality that the analyst assigned a 20% possibility.

另一個潛在的結果是第二巡迴法院推翻了托雷斯法官的裁決，這是分析師分配了20％的可能性。

In this case, the court might uphold the SEC’s appeal and classify programmatic XRP sales as securities under the Howey Test, leading to a massive fine of over $500 million and an expanded injunction.

在這種情況下，法院可以在Howey測試下維護SEC的上訴並將程序化XRP銷售歸類為證券，從而導致超過5億美元的罰款超過5億美元，並擴大了禁令。

However, prominent legal experts like Jeremy Hogan and MetaLawMan highlighted these intricacies as major obstacles to the lawsuit’s early end.

但是，像傑里米·霍根（Jeremy Hogan）和《金屬鷹》（Metalawman）這樣的著名法律專家強調了這些複雜性是訴訟早期結束的主要障礙。

According to All Things XRP, Ripple’s cross-appeal could ultimately result in the $125 million fine imposed by Judge Torres being upheld.

根據XRP的所有事物，Ripple的交叉上訴最終可能會導致托雷斯法官被維持的1.25億美元罰款。

Furthermore, Ripple may succeed in persuading the court to drop the injunction if it manages to demonstrate that there are no ongoing securities law violations.

此外，如果保制者設法證明沒有正在進行的證券法違規行為，則Ripple可能會成功說服法院放棄禁令。

This outcome, occurring with a 25% chance, would depend on Ripple's arguments effectively addressing the court's concerns regarding the injunction.

這種結果以25％的機會發生，將取決於有效解決法院對禁令的擔憂的論點。

In the bleakest scenario, the SEC might abandon its case against Ripple, effectively nullifying the $125 million fine and seeking court approval to dissolve the injunction. This outcome, assigned a 15% likelihood, could arise in the midst of a broader deregulatory shift.

在最黯淡的情況下，SEC可能會放棄對Ripple的案件，有效地取消了1.25億美元的罰款，並尋求法院批准以解散禁令。這種結果分配了15％的可能性，可能會在更廣泛的放鬆調節轉變中產生。

Finally, there is a possibility of the SEC applying for an early administrative ruling, an action that would require the court's approval.

最後，SEC有可能申請早期行政裁決，這項訴訟將需​​要法院的批准。