Despite Growing Speculations, the Prolonged XRP Lawsuit Remains Unresolved

Despite growing speculations, the prolonged XRP lawsuit remains unresolved. The community is divided on the likelihood of an early settlement of the case.

Despite the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) dismissing several crypto lawsuits in recent weeks, the fate of the prolonged Ripple case remains shrouded in speculation. As experts weigh in on the potential outcomes, the community is divided over the likelihood of an early settlement.

With many legal minds predicting that the SEC might cancel its appeal under new leadership, this scenario could see the administrative law judge’s (ALJ) ruling stand.

However, All Things XRP, a leading XRP advocacy platform on X (formerly Twitter), pointed out that this outcome would still leave the $125 million fine and the injunction on institutional XRP sales, ruled by Judge Analisa Torres, in place.

This outcome, while possible with a 35% likelihood, is complicated by the fact that the injunction would need to be dissolved by the court.

The SEC shutting down its case and applying for an early administrative ruling could also lead to a reduced penalty for Ripple. For instance, instead of a $125 million fine, the agency could accept $75 million as part of a settlement.

Moreover, this outcome would depend on Paul Atkins, once confirmed as SEC Chair, advocating for it with the SEC commissioners. With a probability of 30%, this scenario could play out.

Another potential outcome is the Second Circuit overturning Judge Torres’s ruling, an eventuality that the analyst assigned a 20% possibility.

In this case, the court might uphold the SEC’s appeal and classify programmatic XRP sales as securities under the Howey Test, leading to a massive fine of over $500 million and an expanded injunction.

However, prominent legal experts like Jeremy Hogan and MetaLawMan highlighted these intricacies as major obstacles to the lawsuit’s early end.

According to All Things XRP, Ripple’s cross-appeal could ultimately result in the $125 million fine imposed by Judge Torres being upheld.

Furthermore, Ripple may succeed in persuading the court to drop the injunction if it manages to demonstrate that there are no ongoing securities law violations.

This outcome, occurring with a 25% chance, would depend on Ripple's arguments effectively addressing the court's concerns regarding the injunction.

In the bleakest scenario, the SEC might abandon its case against Ripple, effectively nullifying the $125 million fine and seeking court approval to dissolve the injunction. This outcome, assigned a 15% likelihood, could arise in the midst of a broader deregulatory shift.

Finally, there is a possibility of the SEC applying for an early administrative ruling, an action that would require the court's approval.