空投黄金时代：业绩下滑

尽管4月份代币空投项目较多，但上市后表现却惨淡。投资者对这些“免费”代币越来越警惕，其价格图表的持续下降趋势就证明了这一点。造成这种情况的原因包括估值过高、空投接受者缺乏持有激励以及急于出售代币的人带来的倾销压力。加密市场经验丰富的投资者不愿意投资估值数十亿的项目，尤其是当流通供应量较低且代币经济引发担忧时。此外，有人怀疑项目团队可能故意设定高估值来操纵市场并从早期场外销售中获利。随着投资者变得更加敏锐，代币空投作为营销策略的功效可能会减弱。

The Golden Era of Airdrops: A Disappointing Performance

空投的黄金时代：令人失望的表现

April 2024 has witnessed a surge in token airdrops, with projects such as Ethena, Wormhole, Parcl, Tensor, Omni Network, Renzo, Kamino, EIGEN, Avail, and friend.tech making their debuts. However, despite the excitement surrounding these events, the performance of these airdropped tokens has been largely underwhelming.

2024 年 4 月，代币空投激增，Ethena、Wormhole、Parcl、Tensor、Omni Network、Renzo、Kamino、EIGEN、Avail、friend.tech 等项目首次亮相。然而，尽管这些事件令人兴奋，但这些空投代币的表现却基本上没有给人留下深刻印象。

Upon listing, the prices of these tokens have plummeted, with a consistent downward trend across the board. Kamino (KMNO), the governance token of Solana-based lending platform, lost over 63% within an hour of its launch as airdrop recipients rushed to sell their tokens. Renzo's token (REZ) faced a similar fate, dropping 40% in just 24 hours.

上市后，这些代币的价格暴跌，并且整体呈持续下跌趋势。基于 Solana 的借贷平台的治理代币 Kamino (KMNO) 在推出后一小时内下跌了 63% 以上，原因是空投接受者纷纷抛售代币。 Renzo 的代币（REZ）也面临着类似的命运，在短短 24 小时内下跌了 40%。

The reasons behind this poor performance are multifaceted. Many airdrop recipients are primarily motivated by the prospect of free tokens, which they intend to sell for a profit. This lack of long-term commitment leads to a sell-off as soon as the tokens are acquired.

业绩不佳背后的原因是多方面的。许多空投接收者主要是受到免费代币前景的激励，他们打算出售这些代币以获取利润。缺乏长期承诺会导致代币一获得就遭到抛售。

Simultaneously, other investors are hesitant to purchase airdropped tokens at their current prices, recognizing the downward pressure exerted by the selling airdrop recipients. They are likely to wait until this selling pressure subsides before considering potential investments.

与此同时，其他投资者对以当前价格购买空投代币犹豫不决，因为他们认识到空投接受者抛售所带来的下行压力。他们可能会等到抛售压力消退后再考虑潜在投资。

Exorbitant valuations further exacerbate the situation. Wormhole (W) and Ethena (ENA) launched with a circulating supply of 18% and 9.5%, respectively. However, according to CoinGecko, W has a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of over $6 billion, while ENA's FDV stands at $11 billion.

过高的估值进一步加剧了这种情况。 Wormhole (W) 和 Ethena (ENA) 的发行量分别为 18% 和 9.5%。然而，根据 CoinGecko 的数据，W 的完全摊薄估值 (FDV) 超过 60 亿美元，而 ENA 的 FDV 为 110 亿美元。

Low circulating supply can temporarily inflate prices, but as more tokens are unlocked and released into circulation over time, the price is likely to continue its downward trajectory. Investors are increasingly savvy, making them less inclined to purchase tokens from projects with FDV in the billions of dollars.

流通供应量低可能会暂时推高价格，但随着时间的推移，更多的代币被解锁并释放到流通中，价格可能会继续下降。投资者越来越精明，这使得他们不太愿意从 FDV 数十亿美元的项目中购买代币。

Marc Weinstein, investment partner at Mechanism Capital, succinctly stated, "Investors don't believe that a project with an 11-figure launch valuation is likely to go up in value."

Mechanism Capital 投资合伙人 Marc Weinstein 简洁地表示：“投资者不认为启动估值达到 11 位数的项目可能会升值。”

The inflated valuations can be attributed in part to the hype surrounding newly launched projects. Ethena, Wormhole, Tensor, and EIGEN have all been heavily marketed with buzzwords that appeal to investors and speculators alike.

估值过高的部分原因是围绕新推出项目的炒作。 Ethena、Wormhole、Tensor 和 EIGEN 都通过流行语进行了大量营销，吸引了投资者和投机者。

However, sources suggest that some projects may be intentionally launching with high FDV. An anonymous source told DL News that "the most optimistic assumption is that they want to use their token as a currency, and a higher FDV means their treasury is worth more."

然而，消息人士称，一些项目可能有意以高 FDV 启动。一位匿名消息人士告诉 DL News，“最乐观的假设是他们希望将自己的代币用作货币，更高的 FDV 意味着他们的金库价值更高。”

Weinstein also speculates that "if you start at $20 billion and you go down 95% in a bear market, you're still a $2 billion project."

韦恩斯坦还推测，“如果你从 200 亿美元开始，在熊市中下跌 95%，那么你仍然是一个 20 亿美元的项目。”

Furthermore, controversies surrounding tokenomics, such as those experienced by EigenLayer, Renzo, and Starknet, have cast doubt on the authenticity of airdrops.

此外，围绕代币经济学的争议，例如 EigenLayer、Renzo 和 Starknet 所经历的争议，使人们对空投的真实性产生了怀疑。

Investors have grown wary of such tactics and are not easily swayed by promises of free tokens. The poor performance of airdropped tokens is a reflection of this skepticism.

投资者对这种策略越来越警惕，并且不容易被免费代币的承诺所动摇。空投代币的糟糕表现就是这种怀疑的反映。

Despite this, airdrop tokens remain a prevalent method for new projects to attract users. The symbiotic relationship between airdrop hunters and projects is essential to maintaining market equilibrium.

尽管如此，空投代币仍然是新项目吸引用户的普遍方法。空投猎人和项目之间的共生关系对于维持市场平衡至关重要。

However, projects must strike a balance between creating hype and maintaining credibility. The golden era of airdrops will only continue if airdropped tokens can deliver on their promises and avoid the pitfalls that have plagued recent launches.

然而，项目必须在制造炒作和保持可信度之间取得平衡。只有空投代币能够兑现其承诺并避免困扰最近发布的陷阱，空投的黄金时代才会继续。