空投黃金時代：業績下滑

儘管4月代幣空投項目較多，但上市後表現慘淡。投資者對這些「免費」代幣越來越警惕，其價格圖表的持續下降趨勢證明了這一點。造成這種情況的原因包括估值過高、空投接受者缺乏持有激勵以及急於出售代幣的人帶來的傾銷壓力。加密市場經驗豐富的投資者不願意投資估值數十億的項目，尤其是當流通供應量較低且代幣經濟引發擔憂時。此外，有人懷疑專案團隊可能故意設定高估值來操縱市場並從早期場外銷售中獲利。隨著投資者變得更加敏銳，代幣空投作為行銷策略的功效可能會減弱。

The Golden Era of Airdrops: A Disappointing Performance

空投的黃金時代：令人失望的表現

April 2024 has witnessed a surge in token airdrops, with projects such as Ethena, Wormhole, Parcl, Tensor, Omni Network, Renzo, Kamino, EIGEN, Avail, and friend.tech making their debuts. However, despite the excitement surrounding these events, the performance of these airdropped tokens has been largely underwhelming.

2024 年 4 月，代幣空投激增，Ethena、Wormhole、Parcl、Tensor、Omni Network、Renzo、Kamino、EIGEN、Avail、friend.tech 等項目首次亮相。然而，儘管這些事件令人興奮，但這些空投代幣的表現基本上沒有給人留下深刻印象。

Upon listing, the prices of these tokens have plummeted, with a consistent downward trend across the board. Kamino (KMNO), the governance token of Solana-based lending platform, lost over 63% within an hour of its launch as airdrop recipients rushed to sell their tokens. Renzo's token (REZ) faced a similar fate, dropping 40% in just 24 hours.

上市後，這些代幣的價格暴跌，整體呈現持續下跌趨勢。基於 Solana 的借貸平台的治理代幣 Kamino (KMNO) 在推出後一小時內下跌了 63% 以上，因為空投接受者紛紛拋售代幣。 Renzo 的代幣（REZ）也面臨類似的命運，在短短 24 小時內下跌了 40%。

The reasons behind this poor performance are multifaceted. Many airdrop recipients are primarily motivated by the prospect of free tokens, which they intend to sell for a profit. This lack of long-term commitment leads to a sell-off as soon as the tokens are acquired.

業績不佳背後的原因是多方面的。許多空投接收者主要是受到免費代幣前景的激勵，他們打算出售這些代幣以獲取利潤。缺乏長期承諾會導致代幣一獲得就遭到拋售。

Simultaneously, other investors are hesitant to purchase airdropped tokens at their current prices, recognizing the downward pressure exerted by the selling airdrop recipients. They are likely to wait until this selling pressure subsides before considering potential investments.

同時，其他投資者對以當前價格購買空投代幣猶豫不決，因為他們認識到空投接受者拋售所帶來的下行壓力。他們可能會等到拋售壓力消退後再考慮潛在投資。

Exorbitant valuations further exacerbate the situation. Wormhole (W) and Ethena (ENA) launched with a circulating supply of 18% and 9.5%, respectively. However, according to CoinGecko, W has a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of over $6 billion, while ENA's FDV stands at $11 billion.

過高的估值進一步加劇了這種情況。 Wormhole (W) 和 Ethena (ENA) 的發行量分別為 18% 和 9.5%。然而，根據 CoinGecko 的數據，W 的完全稀釋估值 (FDV) 超過 60 億美元，而 ENA 的 FDV 為 110 億美元。

Low circulating supply can temporarily inflate prices, but as more tokens are unlocked and released into circulation over time, the price is likely to continue its downward trajectory. Investors are increasingly savvy, making them less inclined to purchase tokens from projects with FDV in the billions of dollars.

低流通供應量可能會暫時推高價格，但隨著時間的推移，更多的代幣被解鎖並釋放到流通中，價格可能會繼續下降。投資者越來越精明，這使得他們不太願意從 FDV 數十億美元的項目中購買代幣。

Marc Weinstein, investment partner at Mechanism Capital, succinctly stated, "Investors don't believe that a project with an 11-figure launch valuation is likely to go up in value."

Mechanism Capital 投資合夥人 Marc Weinstein 簡潔地表示：“投資者不認為啟動估值達到 11 位數的項目可能會升值。”

The inflated valuations can be attributed in part to the hype surrounding newly launched projects. Ethena, Wormhole, Tensor, and EIGEN have all been heavily marketed with buzzwords that appeal to investors and speculators alike.

估值過高的部分原因是圍繞新推出項目的炒作。 Ethena、Wormhole、Tensor 和 EIGEN 都透過流行語進行了大量行銷，吸引了投資者和投機者。

However, sources suggest that some projects may be intentionally launching with high FDV. An anonymous source told DL News that "the most optimistic assumption is that they want to use their token as a currency, and a higher FDV means their treasury is worth more."

然而，消息人士稱，一些項目可能有意以高 FDV 啟動。一位匿名消息人士告訴 DL News，“最樂觀的假設是他們希望將自己的代幣用作貨幣，而更高的 FDV 意味著他們的金庫價值更高。”

Weinstein also speculates that "if you start at $20 billion and you go down 95% in a bear market, you're still a $2 billion project."

韋恩斯坦還推測，“如果你從 200 億美元開始，在熊市中下跌 95%，那麼你仍然是一個 20 億美元的項目。”

Furthermore, controversies surrounding tokenomics, such as those experienced by EigenLayer, Renzo, and Starknet, have cast doubt on the authenticity of airdrops.

此外，圍繞代幣經濟學的爭議，例如 EigenLayer、Renzo 和 Starknet 所經歷的爭議，使人們對空投的真實性產生了懷疑。

Investors have grown wary of such tactics and are not easily swayed by promises of free tokens. The poor performance of airdropped tokens is a reflection of this skepticism.

投資人對這種策略越來越警惕，不容易被免費代幣的承諾所動搖。空投代幣的糟糕表現就是這種懷疑的反映。

Despite this, airdrop tokens remain a prevalent method for new projects to attract users. The symbiotic relationship between airdrop hunters and projects is essential to maintaining market equilibrium.

儘管如此，空投代幣仍然是新項目吸引用戶的普遍方法。空投獵人和計畫之間的共生關係對於維持市場平衡至關重要。

However, projects must strike a balance between creating hype and maintaining credibility. The golden era of airdrops will only continue if airdropped tokens can deliver on their promises and avoid the pitfalls that have plagued recent launches.

然而，專案必須在製造炒作和保持可信度之間取得平衡。只有空投代幣能夠兌現其承諾並避免困擾最近發布的陷阱，空投的黃金時代才會繼續。