加纳金币（GGC）：一项有前途的投资，但风险也很大

对 2022 年 1 月至 2024 年 8 月加纳金币 (GGC) 投资的详细分析。以美元和加纳塞地 (GHS) 计价的黄金价格回报、汇率贬值、波动性和变异系数等关键指标提供了清晰的图景投资业绩和相关风险。

The Ghana Gold Coin (GGC) was introduced by the Bank of Ghana in 2023 as a legal tender and a store of value to encourage savings and provide Ghanaians with an inflation hedge during periods of high local currency depreciation, such as the one experienced in 2022. The GGC is also a way for the central bank to mop up excess liquidity in the economy.

加纳银行于 2023 年推出加纳金币 (GGC)，作为法定货币和保值手段，以鼓励储蓄，并在本币大幅贬值期间（例如 2022 年经历的情况）为加纳人提供通胀​​对冲GGC也是央行清理经济中过剩流动性的一种方式。

The GGC is available in one-ounce (oz) units, and its price is based on the prevailing world market price of gold. The coin is sold through authorized dealers and can be held in physical or "paper" form, with the latter being a certificate that represents ownership of the gold coin.

GGC 以一盎司 (oz) 为单位，其价格基于当前的世界黄金市场价格。该硬币通过授权经销商出售，可以实物或“纸质”形式持有，后者是代表金币所有权的证书。

This case study analyzes a hypothetical investment in the Ghana Gold Coin (GGC) from January 2022 to August 2024, assuming an initial investment in the one-ounce GGC and examining its returns and risks. The analysis considers both investors who held the GGC in physical form and those who opted for the "paper" certificate investment.

本案例研究分析了 2022 年 1 月至 2024 年 8 月对加纳金币 (GGC) 的假设投资，假设初始投资一盎司 GGC，并检查其回报和风险。该分析考虑了持有实物 GGC 的投资者和选择“纸质”证书投资的投资者。

The following table presents a detailed analysis of the Ghana Gold Coin (GGC) investment from January 2022 to August 2024. Key metrics such as gold price returns in USD and Ghanaian Cedi (GHS), exchange rate depreciation, volatility, and the coefficient of variation offer a clear picture of the investment's performance and associated risks.

下表列出了2022年1月至2024年8月加纳金币（GGC）投资的详细分析。美元和加纳塞地（GHS）黄金价格回报、汇率贬值、波动性和变异系数等关键指标清晰地了解投资绩效和相关风险。

Key Findings

主要发现

The gold price in USD terms appreciated by 23.4% over the analyzed period, while the Ghanaian cedi depreciated against the USD by 80.4%. This led to a substantial increase in the gold price in GHS terms, which soared by 234%. Such a significant difference in returns highlights the importance of considering both local and international factors when making investment decisions.

以美元计价的黄金价格在分析期间升值了 23.4%，而加纳塞地兑美元贬值了 80.4%。这导致以GHS计算的金价大幅上涨，飙升了234%。回报率的如此显着差异凸显了在做出投资决策时考虑本地和国际因素的重要性。

Investing in the Ghana Gold Coin (GGC) proved to be a lucrative venture during the examined period, yielding remarkable returns compared to other investment options. For instance, if an individual had invested in the Gold Coin from January 2022 to August 2024, their returns in Cedi would have been 234%. In comparison, investing solely in USD currency during the same period would have yielded a return of 146%. This shows that while the Gold Coin offers higher returns, it also comes with greater risk and volatility compared to simply holding dollars in Ghana as an investment option. Ultimately, the decision depends on your risk tolerance.

事实证明，在研究期间，投资加纳金币（GGC）是一项利润丰厚的投资，与其他投资选择相比，其回报率可观。例如，如果个人在 2022 年 1 月至 2024 年 8 月期间投资金币，那么他们的 Cedi 回报率为 234%。相比之下，同期仅投资美元货币的回报率为 146%。这表明，虽然金币提供了更高的回报，但与仅在加纳持有美元作为投资选择相比，它也带来了更大的风险和波动性。最终，决定取决于您的风险承受能力。

The gold price in GHS terms exhibited extreme volatility, with a standard deviation of 163.8%, compared to only 22.7% for the USD gold price. This volatility is also reflected in the high coefficient of variation (CV) for GHS gold prices (2.1) versus 0.3 for USD gold prices. A higher CV indicates a lower risk-adjusted return, meaning the investor is receiving a lower return relative to the amount of risk undertaken.

以 GHS 计算的金价表现出极大的波动性，标准差为 163.8%，而以美元计价的金价仅为 22.7%。这种波动性也反映在 GHS 黄金价格的高变异系数 (CV) 上 (2.1)，而美元金价的变异系数 (CV) 为 0.3。 CV 越高，表明风险调整后的回报越低，这意味着相对于所承担的风险量，投资者获得的回报较低。

suggest that the returns on the Ghana Gold Coin (GGC) were indeed substantial, especially for those who held the physical coin and benefited from the higher exchange rate. However, the high volatility and dependence on exchange rate movements introduce substantial uncertainty. Thus, Ghanaian investors in the GGC should be prepared for high risk and volatility. While the investment offers protection against local currency depreciation and has delivered substantial returns, it is not free from significant short-term risks.

表明加纳金币（GGC）的回报确实是可观的，特别是对于那些持有实物金币并从较高汇率中受益的人来说。然而，高波动性和对汇率变动的依赖带来了很大的不确定性。因此，GGC 的加纳投资者应做好应对高风险和波动性的准备。虽然这项投资可以抵御当地货币贬值，并带来了可观的回报，但也并非没有重大的短期风险。

Another important concern for this investment is whether the Bank of Ghana will provide liquidity for trading the Gold Coin. This raises questions about the ease of buying and selling the Gold Coin when needed. Additionally, if you plan to hold onto the Gold Coin, consider where you will store it, as storage solutions like a bank safe deposit box also come with additional costs. Unless, you plan to do have this investment as “paper” or certificate investment.

这项投资的另一个重要问题是加纳银行是否会为金币交易提供流动性。这引发了人们对在需要时买卖金币是否容易的问题。此外，如果您打算保留金币，请考虑将其存储在哪里，因为银行保险箱等存储解决方案也会产生额外费用。除非，您计划将此投资作为“纸质”或凭证投资。

An important question to think about is whether the Bank of Ghana will provide the necessary support to make sure the Gold Coin (GGC) can be easily bought and sold. The Bank of Ghana has stated that the GGC is issued and backed by them, but does this mean that they will act as the clearinghouse for all buyers and sellers to guarantee that there’s always someone to trade with? This is critical for ensuring liquidity, meaning how quickly and easily you can sell your Gold Coin when needed. Understanding if the Bank of Ghana will take on this role is key to knowing how safe and reliable this investment is. This question is as important as in the case of Menzgold Ghana Limited unlicensed gold dealership and investment, this was the problem that made it like a Ponzi-scheme.

需要考虑的一个重要问题是加纳银行是否会提供必要的支持以确保金币（GGC）可以轻松买卖。加纳银行表示，GGC 是由他们发行和支持的，但这是否意味着他们将充当所有买家和卖家的清算所，以保证总有人可以进行交易？这对于确保流动性至关重要，这意味着您可以在需要时快速轻松地出售金币。了解加纳银行是否会承担这一角色是了解这项投资的安全性和可靠性的关键。这个问题与 Menzgold Ghana Limited 未经许可的黄金交易和投资案一样重要，正是这个问题使其成为庞氏骗局。

The issuance of the GGC allows the Bank of Ghana to manage excess cedi liquidity in the economy, complementing other financial tools. It provides Ghanaian savers with a new investment option and a natural hedge during economic uncertainty. By offering access to gold, the GGC helps residents diversify their portfolios and benefit from the Bank ofなのかなs domestic gold purchase program.

GGC 的发行使加纳银行能够管理经济中过剩的塞地流动性，补充其他金融工具。它为加纳储户提供了新的投资选择和经济不确定性期间的自然对冲。通过提供黄金获取途径，GGC 帮助居民实现投资组合多元化，并从央行​​的国内黄金购买计划中受益。