加納金幣（GGC）：一項有前景的投資，但風險也很大

對2022 年1 月至2024 年8 月加納金幣(GGC) 投資的詳細分析。圖景投資績效及相關風險。

The Ghana Gold Coin (GGC) was introduced by the Bank of Ghana in 2023 as a legal tender and a store of value to encourage savings and provide Ghanaians with an inflation hedge during periods of high local currency depreciation, such as the one experienced in 2022. The GGC is also a way for the central bank to mop up excess liquidity in the economy.

加納銀行於 2023 年推出加納金幣 (GGC)，作為法定貨幣和保值手段，以鼓勵儲蓄，並在本幣大幅貶值期間（例如 2022 年經歷的情況）為加納人提供通膨對沖GGC也是央行清理經濟中過剩流動性的一種方式。

The GGC is available in one-ounce (oz) units, and its price is based on the prevailing world market price of gold. The coin is sold through authorized dealers and can be held in physical or "paper" form, with the latter being a certificate that represents ownership of the gold coin.

GGC 以一盎司 (oz) 為單位，其價格是基於當前的世界黃金市場價格。該硬幣透過授權經銷商出售，可以實物或「紙質」形式持有，後者是代表金幣所有權的證書。

This case study analyzes a hypothetical investment in the Ghana Gold Coin (GGC) from January 2022 to August 2024, assuming an initial investment in the one-ounce GGC and examining its returns and risks. The analysis considers both investors who held the GGC in physical form and those who opted for the "paper" certificate investment.

本案例研究分析了 2022 年 1 月至 2024 年 8 月對加納金幣 (GGC) 的假設投資，假設初始投資一盎司 GGC，並檢查其回報和風險。該分析考慮了持有實體 GGC 的投資者和選擇「紙本」證書投資的投資者。

The following table presents a detailed analysis of the Ghana Gold Coin (GGC) investment from January 2022 to August 2024. Key metrics such as gold price returns in USD and Ghanaian Cedi (GHS), exchange rate depreciation, volatility, and the coefficient of variation offer a clear picture of the investment's performance and associated risks.

下表列出了2022年1月至2024年8月加納金幣（GGC）投資的詳細分析。投資績效和相關風險。

Key Findings

主要發現

The gold price in USD terms appreciated by 23.4% over the analyzed period, while the Ghanaian cedi depreciated against the USD by 80.4%. This led to a substantial increase in the gold price in GHS terms, which soared by 234%. Such a significant difference in returns highlights the importance of considering both local and international factors when making investment decisions.

以美元計價的黃金價格在分析期間升值了 23.4%，而加納塞地兌美元貶值了 80.4%。這導致以GHS計算的金價大幅上漲，飆升了234%。回報率的如此顯著差異凸顯了在做出投資決策時考慮本地和國際因素的重要性。

Investing in the Ghana Gold Coin (GGC) proved to be a lucrative venture during the examined period, yielding remarkable returns compared to other investment options. For instance, if an individual had invested in the Gold Coin from January 2022 to August 2024, their returns in Cedi would have been 234%. In comparison, investing solely in USD currency during the same period would have yielded a return of 146%. This shows that while the Gold Coin offers higher returns, it also comes with greater risk and volatility compared to simply holding dollars in Ghana as an investment option. Ultimately, the decision depends on your risk tolerance.

事實證明，在研究期間，投資加納金幣（GGC）是一項利潤豐厚的投資，與其他投資選擇相比，其回報率可觀。例如，如果個人在 2022 年 1 月至 2024 年 8 月期間投資金幣，那麼他們的 Cedi 回報率為 234%。相比之下，同期僅投資美元貨幣的回報率為 146%。這表明，雖然金幣提供了更高的回報，但與僅在加納持有美元作為投資選擇相比，它也帶來了更大的風險和波動性。最終，決定取決於您的風險承受能力。

The gold price in GHS terms exhibited extreme volatility, with a standard deviation of 163.8%, compared to only 22.7% for the USD gold price. This volatility is also reflected in the high coefficient of variation (CV) for GHS gold prices (2.1) versus 0.3 for USD gold prices. A higher CV indicates a lower risk-adjusted return, meaning the investor is receiving a lower return relative to the amount of risk undertaken.

以 GHS 計算的金價表現出極大的波動性，標準差為 163.8%，而以美元計價的金價僅為 22.7%。這種波動性也反映在 GHS 黃金價格的高變異係數 (CV) 上 (2.1)，而美元金價的變異係數 (CV) 為 0.3。 CV 越高，表示風險調整後的回報越低，這意味著相對於所承擔的風險量，投資者獲得的回報較低。

suggest that the returns on the Ghana Gold Coin (GGC) were indeed substantial, especially for those who held the physical coin and benefited from the higher exchange rate. However, the high volatility and dependence on exchange rate movements introduce substantial uncertainty. Thus, Ghanaian investors in the GGC should be prepared for high risk and volatility. While the investment offers protection against local currency depreciation and has delivered substantial returns, it is not free from significant short-term risks.

顯示加納金幣（GGC）的回報確實是可觀的，特別是對於那些持有實體金幣並從較高匯率中受益的人來說。然而，高波動性和對匯率變動的依賴帶來了很大的不確定性。因此，GGC 的加納投資者應做好應對高風險和波動性的準備。雖然這項投資可以抵禦當地貨幣貶值，並帶來了可觀的回報，但並非沒有重大的短期風險。

Another important concern for this investment is whether the Bank of Ghana will provide liquidity for trading the Gold Coin. This raises questions about the ease of buying and selling the Gold Coin when needed. Additionally, if you plan to hold onto the Gold Coin, consider where you will store it, as storage solutions like a bank safe deposit box also come with additional costs. Unless, you plan to do have this investment as “paper” or certificate investment.

這項投資的另一個重要問題是加納銀行是否會為金幣交易提供流動性。這引發了人們對在需要時買賣金幣是否容易的問題。此外，如果您打算保留金幣，請考慮將其存放在哪裡，因為銀行保險箱等儲存解決方案也會產生額外費用。除非，您計劃將此投資作為「紙本」或憑證投資。

An important question to think about is whether the Bank of Ghana will provide the necessary support to make sure the Gold Coin (GGC) can be easily bought and sold. The Bank of Ghana has stated that the GGC is issued and backed by them, but does this mean that they will act as the clearinghouse for all buyers and sellers to guarantee that there’s always someone to trade with? This is critical for ensuring liquidity, meaning how quickly and easily you can sell your Gold Coin when needed. Understanding if the Bank of Ghana will take on this role is key to knowing how safe and reliable this investment is. This question is as important as in the case of Menzgold Ghana Limited unlicensed gold dealership and investment, this was the problem that made it like a Ponzi-scheme.

需要考慮的一個重要問題是加納銀行是否會提供必要的支援以確保金幣（GGC）可以輕鬆買賣。加納銀行表示，GGC 是由他們發行和支持的，但這是否意味著他們將充當所有買家和賣家的清算所，以保證總是有人可以進行交易？這對於確保流動性至關重要，這意味著您可以在需要時快速輕鬆地出售金幣。了解加納銀行是否會承擔這一角色是了解這項投資的安全性和可靠性的關鍵。這個問題與 Menzgold Ghana Limited 未經許可的黃金交易和投資案一樣重要，正是這個問題使其成為龐氏騙局。

The issuance of the GGC allows the Bank of Ghana to manage excess cedi liquidity in the economy, complementing other financial tools. It provides Ghanaian savers with a new investment option and a natural hedge during economic uncertainty. By offering access to gold, the GGC helps residents diversify their portfolios and benefit from the Bank ofなのかなs domestic gold purchase program.

GGC 的發行使加納銀行能夠管理經濟中過剩的塞地流動性，並補充其他金融工具。它為加納儲戶提供了新的投資選擇和經濟不確定性期間的自然對沖。透過提供黃金取得途徑，GGC 幫助居民實現投資組合多元化，並從央行的國內黃金購買計畫中受益。