美联储将基准联邦基金利率下调25个基点至4.25%-4.50%区间

美联储的季度经济预测——其中包括表明央行预计联邦基金利率随时间变化的“点阵图”——显示政策制定者预计联邦基金利率将在 2025 年底前降至 3.9% 或再下降 50 个基点明年的降息点。

The U.S. Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark fed funds rate by 25 basis points to the 4.25%- 4.50% range on Wednesday in its third easing move this year, bringing the total rate cuts to 100 basis points since September.

美联储周三将基准联邦基金利率下调25个基点至4.25%-4.50%区间，这是今年以来的第三次宽松举措，使9月份以来的降息总量达到100个基点。

While the market had largely anticipated the central bank's action, recent data had highlighted continued strong economic growth and sticky inflation. Hence, the focus shifted to the accompanying policy statement, updated economic projections and the upcoming press conference with Chairman Jerome Powell for further insight into the Fed's thinking on future policy actions.

尽管市场在很大程度上预期了央行的行动，但最近的数据凸显了持续强劲的经济增长和粘性通胀。因此，焦点转向随附的政策声明、最新的经济预测以及即将与主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔举行的新闻发布会，以进一步了解美联储对未来政策行动的想法。

The Fed's quarterly economic projections — which include the "dot plot" indicating where the central bank expects the Fed funds rate to land over time — showed that policymakers expect the Fed funds rate to decline to 3.9% by year-end 2025 or another 50 basis points in rate cuts next year. This is higher than the 3.4% projected in September, signaling a less dovish monetary policy in 2025.

美联储的季度经济预测——其中包括表明央行预计联邦基金利率随时间推移将下降的“点阵图”——显示政策制定者预计联邦基金利率将在 2025 年底前降至 3.9% 或再下降 50 个基点明年的降息点。这高于 9 月份预测的 3.4%，表明 2025 年货币政策将不再那么温和。

Following the announcement, bitcoin's price briefly rose to above $104,000 in the minutes that followed, although it had already declined throughout the session. The S&P 500 index also fell to a session low on Wednesday.

消息公布后，比特币价格在接下来的几分钟内短暂升至 104,000 美元以上，尽管在整个交易日中比特币价格已经有所下跌。标准普尔 500 指数周三也跌至盘中低点。

“I think the biggest headache for the Fed right now is the fact that financial conditions have still tightened despite the Fed cutting rates," Andre Dragosch, European Head of Research at Bitwise, told CoinDesk prior to today's action. "Long bond yields and mortgage rates have increased since September and the dollar has appreciated which also implies a tightening in financial conditions."

Bitwise 欧洲研究主管 Andre Dragosch 在今天采取行动之前对 CoinDesk 表示：“我认为，美联储目前最头痛的是，尽管美联储降息，但金融状况仍然收紧。”“长期债券收益率和抵押贷款自9月份以来利率上升，美元升值，这也意味着金融状况收紧。”

“A continued appreciation of the US dollar also poses a macro risk for bitcoin since dollar appreciation is associated with global money supply contraction as well which tends to be bad for bitcoin and other crypto assets," Dragosch added. "In fact, Fed net liquidity continues to decrease. Tightening liquidity and strong dollar is also the biggest risk for BTC in my view … On the other hand, on-chain factors for BTC continue to be very supportive, in particular the ongoing decline in exchange balances which supports the hypothesis that the BTC supply deficit continues to intensify."

Dragosch 补充道：“美元持续升值也对比特币构成宏观风险，因为美元升值也与全球货币供应收缩有关，这往往对比特币和其他加密资产不利。”“事实上，美联储的净流动性继续减少。在我看来，流动性紧缩和美元走强也是比特币面临的最大风险……另一方面，比特币的链上因素仍然非常有利，特别是外汇余额的持续下降，这支持了比特币供应短缺的假设持续加剧。”

Later in the evening, Fed Chairman Powell will hold a post-meeting press conference at 2:30 pm ET, which will provide further signals about the U.S. central bank's intentions.

晚间晚些时候，美联储主席鲍威尔将于美国东部时间下午 2:30 举行会后新闻发布会，这将提供有关美联储意图的进一步信号。