聯準會將基準聯邦基金利率下修25個基點至4.25%-4.50%區間

聯準會的季度經濟預測——其中包括表明央行預計聯邦基金利率隨時間變化的「點陣圖」——顯示政策制定者預計聯邦基金利率將在 2025 年底前降至 3.9% 或再下降 50 個基點明年的降息點。

The U.S. Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark fed funds rate by 25 basis points to the 4.25%- 4.50% range on Wednesday in its third easing move this year, bringing the total rate cuts to 100 basis points since September.

聯準會週三將基準聯邦基金利率下調25個基點至4.25%-4.50%區間，這是今年以來的第三次寬鬆舉措，使9月以來的降息總量達到100個基點。

While the market had largely anticipated the central bank's action, recent data had highlighted continued strong economic growth and sticky inflation. Hence, the focus shifted to the accompanying policy statement, updated economic projections and the upcoming press conference with Chairman Jerome Powell for further insight into the Fed's thinking on future policy actions.

儘管市場在很大程度上預期了央行的行動，但最近的數據凸顯了持續強勁的經濟成長和黏性通膨。因此，焦點轉向隨附的政策聲明、最新的經濟預測以及即將與主席鮑威爾舉行的新聞發布會，以進一步了解美聯儲對未來政策行動的想法。

The Fed's quarterly economic projections — which include the "dot plot" indicating where the central bank expects the Fed funds rate to land over time — showed that policymakers expect the Fed funds rate to decline to 3.9% by year-end 2025 or another 50 basis points in rate cuts next year. This is higher than the 3.4% projected in September, signaling a less dovish monetary policy in 2025.

聯準會的季度經濟預測——其中包括表明央行預計聯邦基金利率隨時間推移將下降的「點陣圖」——顯示政策制定者預計聯邦基金利率將在2025 年底前降至3.9% 或再下降50 個基點明年的降息點。這高於 9 月預測的 3.4%，顯示 2025 年貨幣政策將不再那麼溫和。

Following the announcement, bitcoin's price briefly rose to above $104,000 in the minutes that followed, although it had already declined throughout the session. The S&P 500 index also fell to a session low on Wednesday.

消息公佈後，比特幣價格在接下來的幾分鐘內短暫升至 104,000 美元以上，儘管在整個交易日中比特幣價格已經有所下跌。標準普爾 500 指數週三也跌至盤中低點。

“I think the biggest headache for the Fed right now is the fact that financial conditions have still tightened despite the Fed cutting rates," Andre Dragosch, European Head of Research at Bitwise, told CoinDesk prior to today's action. "Long bond yields and mortgage rates have increased since September and the dollar has appreciated which also implies a tightening in financial conditions."

Bitwise 歐洲研究主管 Andre Dragosch 在今天採取行動之前對 CoinDesk 表示：「我認為，聯準會目前最頭痛的是，儘管聯準會降息，但金融狀況仍然收緊。」「長期債券收益率和抵押貸款自9月以來利率上升，美元升值，這也意味著金融狀況收緊。

“A continued appreciation of the US dollar also poses a macro risk for bitcoin since dollar appreciation is associated with global money supply contraction as well which tends to be bad for bitcoin and other crypto assets," Dragosch added. "In fact, Fed net liquidity continues to decrease. Tightening liquidity and strong dollar is also the biggest risk for BTC in my view … On the other hand, on-chain factors for BTC continue to be very supportive, in particular the ongoing decline in exchange balances which supports the hypothesis that the BTC supply deficit continues to intensify."

Dragosch 補充說：「美元持續升值也對比特幣構成宏觀風險，因為美元升值也與全球貨幣供應收縮有關，這往往對比特幣和其他加密資產不利。」「事實上，聯準會的淨流動性持續減少。在我看來，流動性緊縮和美元走強也是比特幣面臨的最大風險……另一方面，比特幣的鏈上因素仍然非常有利，特別是外匯餘額的持續下降，這支持了比特幣供應短缺的假設持續加劇。

Later in the evening, Fed Chairman Powell will hold a post-meeting press conference at 2:30 pm ET, which will provide further signals about the U.S. central bank's intentions.

晚間晚些時候，聯準會主席鮑威爾將於美國東部時間下午 2:30 舉行會後新聞發布會，這將提供有關聯準會意圖的進一步信號。