美联储的下一个重大决定即将来临。

FOMC将于3月19日宣布其最新的政策举动，所有人的目光都关注它是否会保持利率稳定。

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at the March 19 meeting as policymakers balance slowing growth with the ongoing threat of inflation.

预计联邦储备将在3月19日的会议上保持利率不变，因为决策者平衡增长与通货膨胀的持续威胁。

The CME FedWatch Tool puts the probability of the central bank holding the fed funds rate at 4.25%-4.50% at 99%. Economists polled by Reuters also anticipate no change in the rate.

CME FedWatch工具将中央银行持有美联储资金利率的可能性为4.25％-4.50％，至99％。路透社进行调查的经济学家也预计不会有任何变化。

The central bank is also expected to cut its projections for economic growth this year but maintain its forecasts for inflation and unemployment, according to economists polled by Reuters. In December, the Fed predicted two rate cuts in 2024.

据路透社报道的经济学家称，预计中央银行今年将减少其对经济增长的预测，但要维持其对通货膨胀和失业率的预测。 12月，美联储预测2024年将削减两次税率。

The stock market has slid to a six-month low as concerns over slowing economic growth and the impact of tariffs have weighed on investor confidence. Monday’s release of February retail sales will kick off the week’s economic reports.

由于对经济增长放缓的担忧以及关税的影响对投资者的信心产生了影响，因此股市已经下跌了六个月。周一发布2月零售销售将启动本周的经济报告。

The main focus will be the Fed’s latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which includes the “dot plot” showing where policymakers see interest rates heading. Investors will also be keenly tuned into Chair Jerome Powell’s tone during his post-meeting press conference.

主要重点将是美联储的最新经济预测摘要（SEP），其中包括“点图”，以显示决策者在哪里看到利率标题。投资者还将在会议后的新闻发布会上敏锐地调整为杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）的基调。

The Fed is expected to keep rates in a "higher-for-longer" mode, beginning 2025 with two 25-basis-point cuts to the fed funds rate from the current level and reaching 3.75%-4% by year-end 2025. This suggests one fewer cut than the market anticipates.

预计美联储将使费率保持在“较高的”模式，从2025年开始，从目前的水平开始将两个25个基准点削减到美联储资金率，到2025年到年底时达到3.75％-4％。这表明削减比市场预期的少了。

Rising Tariffs Could Push Up Prices Further

关税上升可以进一步推高

The year will likely see two more rate cuts, taking the fed funds rate to 3.25%-3.50% by the third quarter of 2025 and reaching 3%-3.25% by the fourth quarter.

今年可能会再削减两次税率，到2025年第三季度将美联储资金利率提高到3.25％-3.50％，到第四季度达到3％-3.25％。

The administration's actions, such as imposing tariffs and engaging in trade disputes, could have a bearing on inflation and economic growth, ultimately influencing the timing and magnitude of the expected rate cuts this year.

政府的行动，例如征收关税和参与贸易纠纷，可能与通货膨胀和经济增长有关，最终影响了今年预期利率降低的时机和幅度。

While the Fed officials have signaled that they are prepared to cut rates this year due to slower-than-expected economic growth, they are also keeping an eye on inflation, which remains above the central bank's 2% target.

美联储官员表示，由于经济增长的速度较慢，他们准备降低今年的费率，但他们也一直在关注通货膨胀，这仍然超过了中央银行的2％目标。

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 7.1% in January from a year ago, while the Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, climbed 6.8%. Both figures were in line with economists' expectations.

一月份，一月份的消费者价格指数（CPI）上涨了7.1％，而核心CPI（不包括动荡的食品和能源价格）上涨了6.8％。这两个数字都符合经济学家的期望。

The administration's policies, such as imposing tariffs, have contributed to a surge in import prices. The PPI for Final Demand rose 0.7% in February, exceeding economists' predictions of a 0.4% increase. On a year-over-year basis, the PPI increased by 9.2%, بالاتر از تخمین 8.3% و نشان دهنده بالاترین سطح از فوریه 2022.

政府的政策，例如征收关税，已促成进口价格的上涨。最终需求的PPI在2月增长了0.7％，除了经济学家预测增加0.4％。同期，PPI增长了9.2％，估计值高于8.3％和2022年2月的最高水平。

The PPI data also revealed that prices paid by consumers decreased by 0.5% in February, surprising economists who had anticipated a 0.1% rise. On a yearly basis, consumer prices soared by 7.3%, بالاتر از تخمین 6.3% اقتصاددانان و بالاترین سطح از مارس 1982. This was attributed to a 0.6% افزایش در ماهانه در قیمت مواد غذایی و یک افزایش 0.8% در قیمت انرژی.

PPI的数据还表明，消费者支付的价格在2月下降了0.5％，这令人惊讶的是，他们预计会上涨0.1％。在一年中，消费者价格飙升了7.3％，高于经济学家的6.3％，是1982年3月以来的最高水平。这归因于食品价格上涨0.6％，能源价格上涨0.8％。

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates steady at 4.25%-4.50% next week, and no cuts are anticipated in May. However, investors will be keenly tuned into the Fed’s updated projections for inflation, unemployment, and future rate decisions, to be released on March 18. In December, the Fed projected two rate cuts this year.

预计下周的美联储将使利率稳定在4.25％-4.50％，预计将在5月将不会削减。但是，投资者将敏锐地调整为联邦通货膨胀，失业和未来利率决策的最新预测，将于3月18日发布。

The Fed is expected to cut its projections for economic growth in 2024 from the 1.8% predicted in December, considering the recent signs of slowing growth. However, the central bank is likely to maintain its forecasts for unemployment and inflation at 3.9% and 2.3%, respectively. The projections for 2024 and 2025 are also expected to remain at 1.9% and 1.8% for economic growth, 2.5% and 2.4% for unemployment, and 2.3% and 2.1% for inflation.

考虑到最近增长速度放缓的迹象，预计美联储将从12月的1.8％削减其对经济增长的预测。但是，中央银行可能将其失业和通货膨胀的预测分别为3.9％和2.3％。 2024年和2025年的预测预计将保持1.9％和1.8％的经济增长，失业率为2.5％和2.4％，通货膨胀率为2.3％和2.1％。

The projections for 2024 and 2025 are expected to remain at 1.9% and 1.8% for economic growth, 2.5% and 2.4% for unemployment, and 2.3% and 2.1% for inflation.

预计2024年和2025年的预测将保持1.9％和1.8％的经济增长，失业率为2.5％和2.4％，通货膨胀率为2.3％和2.1％。

The projections for 2024 and 2025 are expected to remain at 1.9% and 1.8% for economic growth, 2.5% and 2.4% for unemployment, and 2.

预计2024年和2025年的预测将保持1.9％和1.8％的经济增长，失业率为2.5％和2.4％，而2.4％。