美聯儲的下一個重大決定即將來臨。

FOMC將於3月19日宣布其最新的政策舉動，所有人的目光都關注它是否會保持利率穩定。

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at the March 19 meeting as policymakers balance slowing growth with the ongoing threat of inflation.

預計聯邦儲備將在3月19日的會議上保持利率不變，因為決策者平衡增長與通貨膨脹的持續威脅。

The CME FedWatch Tool puts the probability of the central bank holding the fed funds rate at 4.25%-4.50% at 99%. Economists polled by Reuters also anticipate no change in the rate.

CME FedWatch工具將中央銀行持有美聯儲資金利率的可能性為4.25％-4.50％，至99％。路透社進行調查的經濟學家也預計不會有任何變化。

The central bank is also expected to cut its projections for economic growth this year but maintain its forecasts for inflation and unemployment, according to economists polled by Reuters. In December, the Fed predicted two rate cuts in 2024.

據路透社報導的經濟學家稱，預計中央銀行今年將減少其對經濟增長的預測，但要維持其對通貨膨脹和失業率的預測。 12月，美聯儲預測2024年將削減兩次稅率。

The stock market has slid to a six-month low as concerns over slowing economic growth and the impact of tariffs have weighed on investor confidence. Monday’s release of February retail sales will kick off the week’s economic reports.

由於對經濟增長放緩的擔憂以及關稅的影響對投資者的信心產生了影響，因此股市已經下跌了六個月。週一發布2月零售銷售將啟動本週的經濟報告。

The main focus will be the Fed’s latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which includes the “dot plot” showing where policymakers see interest rates heading. Investors will also be keenly tuned into Chair Jerome Powell’s tone during his post-meeting press conference.

主要重點將是美聯儲的最新經濟預測摘要（SEP），其中包括“點圖”，以顯示決策者在哪裡看到利率標題。投資者還將在會議後的新聞發布會上敏銳地調整為杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）的基調。

The Fed is expected to keep rates in a "higher-for-longer" mode, beginning 2025 with two 25-basis-point cuts to the fed funds rate from the current level and reaching 3.75%-4% by year-end 2025. This suggests one fewer cut than the market anticipates.

預計美聯儲將使費率保持在“較高的”模式，從2025年開始，從目前的水平開始將兩個25個基準點削減到美聯儲資金率，到2025年到年底時達到3.75％-4％。這表明削減比市場預期的少了。

Rising Tariffs Could Push Up Prices Further

關稅上升可以進一步推高

The year will likely see two more rate cuts, taking the fed funds rate to 3.25%-3.50% by the third quarter of 2025 and reaching 3%-3.25% by the fourth quarter.

今年可能會再削減兩次稅率，到2025年第三季度將美聯儲資金利率提高到3.25％-3.50％，到第四季度達到3％-3.25％。

The administration's actions, such as imposing tariffs and engaging in trade disputes, could have a bearing on inflation and economic growth, ultimately influencing the timing and magnitude of the expected rate cuts this year.

政府的行動，例如徵收關稅和參與貿易糾紛，可能與通貨膨脹和經濟增長有關，最終影響了今年預期利率降低的時機和幅度。

While the Fed officials have signaled that they are prepared to cut rates this year due to slower-than-expected economic growth, they are also keeping an eye on inflation, which remains above the central bank's 2% target.

美聯儲官員表示，由於經濟增長的速度較慢，他們準備降低今年的費率，但他們也一直在關注通貨膨脹，這仍然超過了中央銀行的2％目標。

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 7.1% in January from a year ago, while the Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, climbed 6.8%. Both figures were in line with economists' expectations.

一月份，一月份的消費者價格指數（CPI）上漲了7.1％，而核心CPI（不包括動蕩的食品和能源價格）上漲了6.8％。這兩個數字都符合經濟學家的期望。

The administration's policies, such as imposing tariffs, have contributed to a surge in import prices. The PPI for Final Demand rose 0.7% in February, exceeding economists' predictions of a 0.4% increase. On a year-over-year basis, the PPI increased by 9.2%, بالاتر از تخمین 8.3% و نشان دهنده بالاترین سطح از فوریه 2022.

政府的政策，例如徵收關稅，已促成進口價格的上漲。最終需求的PPI在2月增長了0.7％，除了經濟學家預測增加0.4％。同期，PPI增長了9.2％，估計值高於8.3％和2022年2月的最高水平。

The PPI data also revealed that prices paid by consumers decreased by 0.5% in February, surprising economists who had anticipated a 0.1% rise. On a yearly basis, consumer prices soared by 7.3%, بالاتر از تخمین 6.3% اقتصاددانان و بالاترین سطح از مارس 1982. This was attributed to a 0.6% افزایش در ماهانه در قیمت مواد غذایی و یک افزایش 0.8% در قیمت انرژی.

PPI的數據還表明，消費者支付的價格在2月下降了0.5％，這令人驚訝的是，他們預計會上漲0.1％。在一年中，消費者價格飆升了7.3％，高於經濟學家的6.3％，是1982年3月以來的最高水平。這歸因於食品價格上漲0.6％，能源價格上漲0.8％。

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates steady at 4.25%-4.50% next week, and no cuts are anticipated in May. However, investors will be keenly tuned into the Fed’s updated projections for inflation, unemployment, and future rate decisions, to be released on March 18. In December, the Fed projected two rate cuts this year.

預計下週的美聯儲將使利率穩定在4.25％-4.50％，預計將在5月將不會削減。但是，投資者將敏銳地調整為聯邦通貨膨脹，失業和未來利率決策的最新預測，將於3月18日發布。

The Fed is expected to cut its projections for economic growth in 2024 from the 1.8% predicted in December, considering the recent signs of slowing growth. However, the central bank is likely to maintain its forecasts for unemployment and inflation at 3.9% and 2.3%, respectively. The projections for 2024 and 2025 are also expected to remain at 1.9% and 1.8% for economic growth, 2.5% and 2.4% for unemployment, and 2.3% and 2.1% for inflation.

考慮到最近增長速度放緩的跡象，預計美聯儲將從12月的1.8％削減其對經濟增長的預測。但是，中央銀行可能將其失業和通貨膨脹的預測分別為3.9％和2.3％。 2024年和2025年的預測預計將保持1.9％和1.8％的經濟增長，失業率為2.5％和2.4％，通貨膨脹率為2.3％和2.1％。

The projections for 2024 and 2025 are expected to remain at 1.9% and 1.8% for economic growth, 2.5% and 2.4% for unemployment, and 2.3% and 2.1% for inflation.

預計2024年和2025年的預測將保持1.9％和1.8％的經濟增長，失業率為2.5％和2.4％，通貨膨脹率為2.3％和2.1％。

The projections for 2024 and 2025 are expected to remain at 1.9% and 1.8% for economic growth, 2.5% and 2.4% for unemployment, and 2.

預計2024年和2025年的預測將保持1.9％和1.8％的經濟增長，失業率為2.5％和2.4％，而2.4％。