美联储会议纪要揭示通胀担忧，特朗普当选后市场兴奋停止

美联储12月会议纪要的发布时间有所减少，这让人们更深入地了解他们今年为何放慢降息步伐。

The first major macroeconomic news of 2025 has arrived…and it’s not great.

2025 年第一个重大宏观经济消息已经到来……但情况并不好。

The minutes from the Fed’s December meeting dropped on Wednesday, providing more insight into why they’re slowing rate cuts for this year.

周三公布的美联储 12 月会议纪要，让人们更深入地了解美联储今年放缓降息的原因。

The short answer: inflation has been stickier than hoped.

简短的回答是：通货膨胀比预期的更加严重。

An initial announcement of this news last month caused some panic in the markets, halting what had been a euphoric run following Donald Trump’s election in November.

上个月这一消息的最初宣布引起了市场的一些恐慌，从而终止了唐纳德·特朗普 (Donald Trump) 11 月当选后的欣欣向荣的走势。

But Trump’s pro-crypto stance may be somewhat offset by his other policies, which the Feds believe may keep inflation above the target of 2% annually.

但特朗普支持加密货币的立场可能会在一定程度上被他的其他政策所抵消，美联储认为这些政策可能会使通胀率保持在每年 2% 的目标之上。

Some of Trump’s biggest election promises revolved around global trade and immigration. In particular, he plans to introduce trade tariffs on Chinese product imports – something US economists believe may cause inflation to hang around like a bad smell.

特朗普的一些最大的竞选承诺围绕全球贸易和移民。特别是，他计划对中国产品进口征收贸易关税 — — 美国经济学家认为这可能会导致通胀像难闻的气味一样挥之不去。

That said, it appears the Trump Government may be considering a more conservative approach to trade and immigration policies, which could temper fears.

尽管如此，特朗普政府似乎正在考虑对贸易和移民政策采取更加保守的态度，这可能会缓解担忧。

But in general, there’s a lot of economic uncertainty at the minute, and most are adopting a “wait-and-see” stance to see how Trump’s policies impact the US dollar.

但总体而言，目前经济存在很多不确定性，大多数人都采取“观望”立场，看看特朗普的政策如何影响美元。

Despite the seemingly negative news, the crypto markets have demonstrated resilience. Bitcoin has fallen below US $100k (AU $160k) – but the drop-off has been relatively tame, with several major coins moving sideways rather than downwards over the past month.

尽管有看似负面的消息，但加密货币市场却表现出了韧性。比特币已跌破 10 万美元（16 万澳元），但跌幅相对温和，过去一个月，几种主要代币横向移动而不是向下移动。

US Jobs Report Could Offer Clues on Economic Trajectory

美国就业报告可为经济轨迹提供线索

Generally, higher interest rates spell bad news for cryptocurrencies. High interest rates mean less liquidity, and in such economic times, investors tend to prefer risk-averse assets compared to volatile ones like digital assets.

一般来说，较高的利率对加密货币来说是坏消息。高利率意味着流动性减少，在这样的经济时期，与数字资产等波动性资产相比，投资者往往更喜欢规避风险的资产。

So, a slowdown in rate cuts through 2025 – as the FOMC minutes allude to – could prevent crypto from running as hard as many had hoped.

因此，正如 FOMC 会议纪要所暗示的那样，到 2025 年降息放缓可能会阻止加密货币像许多人希望的那样强劲运行。

That said, the short-term uncertainty and pain could lead to longer-term solidity across the financial markets.

尽管如此，短期的不确定性和痛苦可能会导致整个金融市场的长期稳定。

Theoretically, if the Feds were to cut rates hard – while ignoring inflation – the market may run quite hot. Too hot, perhaps.

理论上，如果美联储大幅降息 — — 同时忽略通胀 — — 市场可能会相当火爆。也许太热了。

This could come with the side effect of even higher inflation and end up worse than a slow and steady stabilisation of the economy, which is the Reserve Bank’s current mindset.

这可能会带来通胀更高的副作用，最终比经济缓慢稳定的稳定更糟糕，而这是央行目前的心态。

In general, navigating fiscal policy, especially with a new incoming president, is a difficult task. But “bad” short-term news for the markets isn’t always as negative as it may seem.

总体而言，制定财政政策是一项艰巨的任务，尤其是在新上任总统的情况下。但市场的“坏”短期消息并不总是像看起来那么负面。

Now, the community awaits the US jobs report, slated for release on Friday, to re-assess the state of the national economy.

现在，社会正在等待定于周五发布的美国就业报告，以重新评估国民经济状况。